Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 18.328
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 9 Oct 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0421st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%17th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.9742 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), which signals unusually aggressive accounting relative to local peers though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly applicable. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall score of 40.3/100 with perfect receivables quality (100/100) but zero cash-conversion and margin-quality scores (0/100 each). The Altman Z-Score is 1.67 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- High Beneish peer percentile: M-Score 0.9742 at the 96th Vietnam peer percentile — this measures a composite of eight accounting change ratios intended to flag earnings manipulation risk relative to peers.
- Very high sales-growth index (SGI): 6.0565 — SGI measures sales growth; a value this large shows unusually rapid revenue growth versus the prior year(s), which can stress accounting and operations.
- Low cash conversion and margin quality: Earnings-Quality total 40.3/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100 — these measure the extent to which reported profit turns into cash and the sustainability/consistency of margins respectively.
- Low three-year cash conversion (Vietnam check): operating cash flow / net profit = -0.04 (21st percentile among VN non-financials) — indicates profit has not consistently converted into operating cash over three years.
- Altman Z-Score in distress zone: 1.67 — this ratio estimates distance to bankruptcy and suggests elevated financial distress risk under the classic Altman model.
- Unusual leverage/growth indices in Beneish: LVGI = 3.8599 and DEPI = 0.8778 — LVGI (leverage growth) and DEPI (depreciation index) changes point to material balance-sheet and non-cash expense dynamics that warrant review.
- Director-deal registrations exist: one sale registration (249,600 shares) and one purchase registration (purchase registration with no volume disclosed) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not confirmed trades.
- Receivables quality high: Receivables quality score 100.0/100 and Vietnamese check shows receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (17th percentile) — this measures low levels of prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside normal trade receivables.
- Accruals quality moderate: Accruals quality 57.0/100 — this measures the reliability of accruals versus cash and is middling rather than extreme.
- No accumulated losses and positive equity: accumulated losses = none and owner's equity excluding minority interest is positive — the published statements do not show undistributed earnings negative.
- Piotroski F-Score neutral: 5/9 — this indicates neither especially weak nor especially strong fundamentals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.
The top shareholder is an institutional holder with 58.9% (Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Thương Mại Sông Đà Miền Bắc), and a second large individual shareholder holds 24.7% (Đặng Thị Hồng Hạnh), so control is concentrated. The listed group holds 34.0% of S72 (Sông Đà 7.02) indicating cross-holdings in the group; director-deal registrations show limited disclosed insider trading intentions in the last year.
- Compare the consolidated and parent-state operating cash flow lines with profit before tax and net profit in the cash flow statement and the profit-and-loss note to confirm the -0.04 three-year cash-conversion pattern.
- Inspect the notes for 'receivables' and 'other long-term receivables / prepayments' to verify the 0.3% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify counterparty, related-party status and ageing.
- Review the fixed-asset note and depreciation policy/schedule to assess the DEPI = 0.8778 (depreciation index) and any changes in estimated useful lives or impairment charge disclosures.
- Check the related-party transactions and loans/advances schedules (and the shareholder register note) to reconcile the major shareholders’ holdings (58.9%, 24.7%) with any intra-group balances or guarantees.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.43
- P/S
- 2.29
- ROE
- 14.4%
- ROA
- 11.9%
- EPS
- 4.657
- BVPS
- 34.586
- Gross Margin
- 0.6%
- Net Margin
- 71.0%
- D/E
- 0.28
- Current Ratio
- 0.88
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 6.5M
- Charter Capital
- 64.8B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT