Back to Dashboard

S4A

Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Sê San 4A

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtSản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnHOSECT
31.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
31.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
36.107

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.820
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.50%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→2.900
Payout ratio→89.1%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→31.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
36.107
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share2.900dps source: eventspayout ratio: 89.06
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3202731951689981100851501521109095
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·17416899104613651311197720485
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·265729222222195600
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·119466460364241442754324074
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.42030310.40.40.20.0320.7
Net Inventories
·0.20.7310.40.532221113
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0.20.7310.40.532221113
Other current assets
·0.30.90.30.30.30.3360.70.40.40.73
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000003
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7287688058438939389861,0381,0861,1271,1761,2281,268
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·6967427908368859319821,0311,0791,1201,1691,2181,267
Tangible fixed assets
·6917387878328829289781,0281,0761,1171,1661,2141,263
Intagible fixed assets
·5333333333333
Other non-current assets
·30261577646777101
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·172065320000001
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,0471,0401,0001,0119921,0181,0861,1231,2361,2801,2861,3181,363
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·448486410372411492562643708817830892951
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·26319919223018397889188124736994
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·154117771261137878787270655872
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.50.90.60.5000000000
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·186287218143229395474552620694756823857
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·185285216141229395474552620694756823857
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·599554590639581526524480528462457427412
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·599554590639581526524480528462457427412
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·422422422422422422422422422422422422422
Foreign Currency Difference reserve
·00000000000−16−33
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·181818181818181514131280
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1591141501991418684439227231318
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,0471,0401,0001,0119921,0181,0861,1231,2361,2801,2861,3181,363
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·422422422422422422422422422422422422422

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
42
Weak
Accrual Quality
90
Cash Conversion
65
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
57
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.09 · 87th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.63
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.961
GMI
0.933
AQI
1.234
SGI
1.318
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.874
TATA
0.025
LVGI
0.917

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.1652nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.0%5th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows mixed signals: the Beneish M‑Score is -1.0851 (87th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +1.63, driven in part by a high DSRI of 1.9610 and an AQI of 1.2343. At the same time, solvency and fundamentals read well: Altman Z‑Score 3.02 (safe zone) and Piotroski F‑Score 7/9, while accruals (TATA 0.0254) and the statutory loss tests show no immediate distress.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score -1.0851 and Vietnam peer percentile 87th: the M‑Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; this company scores higher (more aggressive) than 87% of Vietnamese peers and the M‑Score has moved +1.63 year‑over‑year, indicating accounting-based signals are trending toward greater aggressiveness relative to its past.
  • DSRI 1.9610 (days‑sales‑in‑receivables index): DSRI measures changes in receivables relative to sales; a value near 1.96 implies receivables have grown markedly faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition timing or collection issues.
  • AQI 1.2343 (asset quality index): AQI measures the proportion of long‑lived and potentially manipulable assets (e.g., capitalization) relative to total assets; 1.2343 indicates an increase in such assets versus the prior period.
  • Revenue quality 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100: these scores indicate the model finds very weak evidence that reported revenues are supported by durable, high‑quality cash/receivable patterns and that receivable composition or collectability is poor by the scoring rules.
  • Earnings‑quality component: SGI 1.3185 (sales growth index) combined with SGAI 0.8740 and GMI 0.9329: sales are growing (SGI > 1), gross margin index below 1 (GMI 0.9329) indicates improving gross margin, while SGAI < 1 suggests lower SG&A intensity — the combination of rapid sales growth and the M‑Score rise is a pattern where revenue growth can obscure other pressures.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z‑Score 3.02: this is in the 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance; the Altman Z measures financial distress risk using liquidity, profitability and leverage components.
  • Piotroski F‑Score 7/9: this score summarizes nine fundamental tests (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 7 indicates generally strong operating and financial fundamentals.
  • Accruals quality 89.9/100 and TATA 0.0254: accruals quality is high and total accruals to assets (TATA) are low (2.54%), which suggests reported profits are not being driven by large accounting accruals.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle 0.0% of total assets (5th percentile): the explicit check for receivables outside normal trade (prepayments, loans receivable, long‑term receivables) is negligible, reducing concerns about material off‑balance receivable schemes.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: Công Ty TNHH 30‑4 Gia Lai holds 51.8% (controlling stake), followed by Vĩnh Hiệp 11.5% and related institutional holders; director‑deal registrations show one purchase registration (844,000 shares) and net registered volume +2.00% of shares outstanding between 2025‑10‑30 and 2026‑10‑30. This structure implies strong controlling shareholder influence and some insider registration activity (registrations are not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 receivables ageing note and the related‑party receivables schedule to confirm that increases implied by DSRI 1.9610 are not concentrated in a small set of slow accounts or related parties.
  • Reconcile cash flow from operations to reported net profit in the cash flow note (verify the components underlying cash conversion 1.16 over three years) and check the notes that explain significant non‑cash items given TATA 0.0254 and high accruals quality.
  • Review the revenue recognition policy and any disclosures (sales returns, rebates, consignment, cut‑off) and the contract/revenue note to assess why revenue quality scored 0.0/100 despite SGI 1.3185.
  • Inspect the fixed‑asset and intangible‑asset movement schedules (capex, capitalization, reclassifications) to understand the AQI 1.2343 increase and whether asset classifications or useful lives changed (DEPI 1.0000 indicates no change in depreciation index).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.02
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.24
Negative
Composite
60
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.90×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.49×Turnover0.31×Leverage1.75=ROE24.3%
Price Risk
Momentum
−4.2%
Volatility
32.9%
Max Drawdown
−13.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.41P/E
P/B
2.29
P/S
4.20
ROE
25.3%
ROA
14.0%
EPS
3.453
BVPS
14.192
Gross Margin
58.9%
Net Margin
44.6%
D/E
0.57
Current Ratio
1.22
Rev Growth
+31.8%
Profit Growth
+65.4%
EV/EBITDA
6.49
Div Yield
7.1%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
42.2M
Charter Capital
422B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →