S4A
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Sê San 4A
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 31.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 36.107
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.1652nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%5th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows mixed signals: the Beneish M‑Score is -1.0851 (87th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +1.63, driven in part by a high DSRI of 1.9610 and an AQI of 1.2343. At the same time, solvency and fundamentals read well: Altman Z‑Score 3.02 (safe zone) and Piotroski F‑Score 7/9, while accruals (TATA 0.0254) and the statutory loss tests show no immediate distress.
- Beneish M‑Score -1.0851 and Vietnam peer percentile 87th: the M‑Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; this company scores higher (more aggressive) than 87% of Vietnamese peers and the M‑Score has moved +1.63 year‑over‑year, indicating accounting-based signals are trending toward greater aggressiveness relative to its past.
- DSRI 1.9610 (days‑sales‑in‑receivables index): DSRI measures changes in receivables relative to sales; a value near 1.96 implies receivables have grown markedly faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition timing or collection issues.
- AQI 1.2343 (asset quality index): AQI measures the proportion of long‑lived and potentially manipulable assets (e.g., capitalization) relative to total assets; 1.2343 indicates an increase in such assets versus the prior period.
- Revenue quality 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100: these scores indicate the model finds very weak evidence that reported revenues are supported by durable, high‑quality cash/receivable patterns and that receivable composition or collectability is poor by the scoring rules.
- Earnings‑quality component: SGI 1.3185 (sales growth index) combined with SGAI 0.8740 and GMI 0.9329: sales are growing (SGI > 1), gross margin index below 1 (GMI 0.9329) indicates improving gross margin, while SGAI < 1 suggests lower SG&A intensity — the combination of rapid sales growth and the M‑Score rise is a pattern where revenue growth can obscure other pressures.
- Altman Z‑Score 3.02: this is in the 'safe' zone for bankruptcy distance; the Altman Z measures financial distress risk using liquidity, profitability and leverage components.
- Piotroski F‑Score 7/9: this score summarizes nine fundamental tests (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 7 indicates generally strong operating and financial fundamentals.
- Accruals quality 89.9/100 and TATA 0.0254: accruals quality is high and total accruals to assets (TATA) are low (2.54%), which suggests reported profits are not being driven by large accounting accruals.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 0.0% of total assets (5th percentile): the explicit check for receivables outside normal trade (prepayments, loans receivable, long‑term receivables) is negligible, reducing concerns about material off‑balance receivable schemes.
Ownership is concentrated: Công Ty TNHH 30‑4 Gia Lai holds 51.8% (controlling stake), followed by Vĩnh Hiệp 11.5% and related institutional holders; director‑deal registrations show one purchase registration (844,000 shares) and net registered volume +2.00% of shares outstanding between 2025‑10‑30 and 2026‑10‑30. This structure implies strong controlling shareholder influence and some insider registration activity (registrations are not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 receivables ageing note and the related‑party receivables schedule to confirm that increases implied by DSRI 1.9610 are not concentrated in a small set of slow accounts or related parties.
- Reconcile cash flow from operations to reported net profit in the cash flow note (verify the components underlying cash conversion 1.16 over three years) and check the notes that explain significant non‑cash items given TATA 0.0254 and high accruals quality.
- Review the revenue recognition policy and any disclosures (sales returns, rebates, consignment, cut‑off) and the contract/revenue note to assess why revenue quality scored 0.0/100 despite SGI 1.3185.
- Inspect the fixed‑asset and intangible‑asset movement schedules (capex, capitalization, reclassifications) to understand the AQI 1.2343 increase and whether asset classifications or useful lives changed (DEPI 1.0000 indicates no change in depreciation index).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.29
- P/S
- 4.20
- ROE
- 25.3%
- ROA
- 14.0%
- EPS
- 3.453
- BVPS
- 14.192
- Gross Margin
- 58.9%
- Net Margin
- 44.6%
- D/E
- 0.57
- Current Ratio
- 1.22
- Rev Growth
- +31.8%
- Profit Growth
- +65.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.49
- Div Yield
- 7.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 42.2M
- Charter Capital
- 422B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Company Type
- CT