Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 22.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 25.463
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 28 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0045th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%7th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.3904, placing it at the 82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) with a year-over-year change of -1.49, indicating the metric moved toward the manipulation threshold relative to last year; note the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and about 28% of Vietnamese companies cross it. Earnings-quality measures are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 89.4/100 with very high accruals, receivables and margin sub-scores (accruals 93.7, receivables 100.0, margin 100.0) but weaker cash conversion (70.4). Other solvency and fundamental indicators look benign: Altman Z-Score 12.68 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.3904 (82nd percentile among Vietnamese peers): the score is less negative than the US -1.78 benchmark and has moved materially year-over-year by -1.49, which signals a relative shift in the accounting profile versus peers (Beneish components: AQI 4.6244, LVGI 2.0580).
- High asset quality/inventory-related anomaly: AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 4.6244, which measures rising non-current and long-term components of assets (e.g., capitalized costs, long-term receivables) relative to sales.
- Large change signal in LVGI = 2.0580 (Leverage Index/volatility component): this measures increases in leverage or liabilities relative to assets and sales, contributing to the M-Score movement.
- Cash-based signals weaker: TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0157 and three-year cash conversion = 1.00 (45th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — cash conversion at the median-lower range means profits are not strongly converting into operating cash flow.
- Year-over-year Beneish movement: change of -1.49 indicates the firm’s M-Score moved notably vs prior year; Beneish consecutive-year correlation is low, so this is a secondary cue rather than definitive proof.
- Earnings Quality Score 89.4/100 with strong component scores: Accruals quality 93.7/100, Receivables quality 100.0/100, Margin quality 100.0/100 — these indicate reported margins, receivable composition and accruals appear high-quality by the underlying metrics used.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle are very low: 0.1% of total assets (7th percentile among Vietnamese companies), suggesting limited long-term receivable/prepayment exposure on the balance sheet.
- Altman Z-Score 12.68 (safe zone) — this distance-from-bankruptcy measure is well into the safe range.
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral) — fundamentals are mixed but not strongly deteriorating according to the nine-point working-capital/profitability checklist.
- No accumulated losses and zero years of parent net loss up to FY2025; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — statutory-loss indicators in the published statements do not show the conditions that trigger HOSE/HNX delisting rules (and the company trades on UPCoM where those HOSE/HNX rules do not apply).
Top ownership is moderately concentrated: an institutional shareholder, Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Quy Nhơn, holds 16.7%; the next largest individual holdings are Lâm Thị Vĩnh Tuyết 2.2%, Nguyễn Hữu Phúc 1.1%, Ngô Thị Hạnh 0.9% and Nguyễn Thị Bích Phượng 0.9%. There is no indication here of a dominant controlling shareholder greater than typical Vietnamese listed groups, though the largest holder is a named institutional entity.
- Compare the FY2025 note or schedule for ‘Other long-term receivables / Prepayments’ with total assets to confirm the 0.1% receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure and inspect counterparties and related-party disclosures.
- Reconcile the consolidated cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) and the income statement net profit for the last three years to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of 1.00 and the components driving any divergence (changes in working capital, non-cash items).
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset movement disclosures and the related-party transactions note to understand drivers of the AQI = 4.6244 (additions, reclassifications, capitalized costs, or transfers to long-term receivables).
- Review the debt schedule and liabilities notes to confirm the leverage items that feed into LVGI = 2.0580 and any off‑balance-sheet arrangements or guarantees disclosed in the auditor’s report or management discussion.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.12
- P/S
- 5.43
- ROE
- 14.3%
- ROA
- 13.6%
- EPS
- 2.848
- BVPS
- 20.346
- Gross Margin
- 85.3%
- Net Margin
- 68.1%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 6.46
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.68
- Div Yield
- 8.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 10.8M
- Charter Capital
- 108B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
- Company Type
- CT