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QSP

Công ty Cổ phần Tân cảng Quy Nhơn

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiUPCOMCT
22.700
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+12.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
22.700
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
25.463

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→37.48B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.8x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→22.700
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
25.463
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA37.5 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·9889776143262017242321218
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.550.020.040.2224914129202
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·92797356280125471102
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·55351544354123
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.10.10.20.20.20.090.040.070.070.10.070.40.04
Other current assets
·0.3827,521827,521709,988234,2820.01234,282234,2820.3165,696500,10461,7000.9
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000061,7000
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·137129131136142149153163158164169173178
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·120126130136142147148153158163168173178
Tangible fixed assets
·120126130136142147148153158163168173178
Other non-current assets
·170.30.20.20.225100.000.010.10.000.04
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·170.20.050.080.0515100.000.010.10.000
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·235219207197186175173180182187190194186
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·157766613273547576469
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·15776661319141312911
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00000071412121073
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·00000000000.200
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.30.30.30.30.30.30.372133455558
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·000000072133455557
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·220211201191179169160153147140133130117
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·220211201191179169160153147140133130117
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·108108108108108108108108108108108108108
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·81706051423427211510522
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·3133323229272524242220206
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·235219207197186175173180182187190194186
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·108108108108108108108108108108108108108
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
89
Good
Accrual Quality
94
Cash Conversion
70
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.39 · 82nd pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −1.49
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.898
GMI
0.984
AQI
4.624
SGI
1.015
DEPI
0.947
SGAI
1.042
TATA
0.016
LVGI
2.058

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.0045th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.1%7th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.3904, placing it at the 82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) with a year-over-year change of -1.49, indicating the metric moved toward the manipulation threshold relative to last year; note the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and about 28% of Vietnamese companies cross it. Earnings-quality measures are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 89.4/100 with very high accruals, receivables and margin sub-scores (accruals 93.7, receivables 100.0, margin 100.0) but weaker cash conversion (70.4). Other solvency and fundamental indicators look benign: Altman Z-Score 12.68 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.3904 (82nd percentile among Vietnamese peers): the score is less negative than the US -1.78 benchmark and has moved materially year-over-year by -1.49, which signals a relative shift in the accounting profile versus peers (Beneish components: AQI 4.6244, LVGI 2.0580).
  • High asset quality/inventory-related anomaly: AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 4.6244, which measures rising non-current and long-term components of assets (e.g., capitalized costs, long-term receivables) relative to sales.
  • Large change signal in LVGI = 2.0580 (Leverage Index/volatility component): this measures increases in leverage or liabilities relative to assets and sales, contributing to the M-Score movement.
  • Cash-based signals weaker: TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0157 and three-year cash conversion = 1.00 (45th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — cash conversion at the median-lower range means profits are not strongly converting into operating cash flow.
  • Year-over-year Beneish movement: change of -1.49 indicates the firm’s M-Score moved notably vs prior year; Beneish consecutive-year correlation is low, so this is a secondary cue rather than definitive proof.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score 89.4/100 with strong component scores: Accruals quality 93.7/100, Receivables quality 100.0/100, Margin quality 100.0/100 — these indicate reported margins, receivable composition and accruals appear high-quality by the underlying metrics used.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle are very low: 0.1% of total assets (7th percentile among Vietnamese companies), suggesting limited long-term receivable/prepayment exposure on the balance sheet.
  • Altman Z-Score 12.68 (safe zone) — this distance-from-bankruptcy measure is well into the safe range.
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral) — fundamentals are mixed but not strongly deteriorating according to the nine-point working-capital/profitability checklist.
  • No accumulated losses and zero years of parent net loss up to FY2025; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — statutory-loss indicators in the published statements do not show the conditions that trigger HOSE/HNX delisting rules (and the company trades on UPCoM where those HOSE/HNX rules do not apply).
Ownership Risk

Top ownership is moderately concentrated: an institutional shareholder, Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Quy Nhơn, holds 16.7%; the next largest individual holdings are Lâm Thị Vĩnh Tuyết 2.2%, Nguyễn Hữu Phúc 1.1%, Ngô Thị Hạnh 0.9% and Nguyễn Thị Bích Phượng 0.9%. There is no indication here of a dominant controlling shareholder greater than typical Vietnamese listed groups, though the largest holder is a named institutional entity.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note or schedule for ‘Other long-term receivables / Prepayments’ with total assets to confirm the 0.1% receivables-outside-trade-cycle figure and inspect counterparties and related-party disclosures.
  • Reconcile the consolidated cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) and the income statement net profit for the last three years to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio of 1.00 and the components driving any divergence (changes in working capital, non-cash items).
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset movement disclosures and the related-party transactions note to understand drivers of the AQI = 4.6244 (additions, reclassifications, capitalized costs, or transfers to long-term receivables).
  • Review the debt schedule and liabilities notes to confirm the leverage items that feed into LVGI = 2.0580 and any off‑balance-sheet arrangements or guarantees disclosed in the auditor’s report or management discussion.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
12.68
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.33
Negative
Composite
52
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.86×Turnover0.19×Leverage1.07=ROE14.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
−5.0%
Volatility
53.4%
Max Drawdown
−31.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.97P/E
P/B
1.12
P/S
5.43
ROE
14.3%
ROA
13.6%
EPS
2.848
BVPS
20.346
Gross Margin
85.3%
Net Margin
68.1%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
6.46
EV/EBITDA
3.68
Div Yield
8.8%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
10.8M
Charter Capital
108B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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