QHW

Công ty Cổ phần Nước khoáng Quảng Ninh

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT

28.500

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 28.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 33.279

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.10%

Growth Estimate

historical blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→39.79B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→28.500

Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

33.279

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)11.10%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend

Base cash flow39.8 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
9.1%	36.132	36.132	36.132	36.132	36.132
10.1%	34.995	35.568	35.568	35.568	35.568
11.1%	34.995	34.995	34.995	34.995	34.995
12.1%	34.995	34.995	34.995	34.995	34.995
13.1%	33.279	34.513	34.513	34.995	34.995

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

QHW among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, QHW marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is QHW. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	288	273	241	198	160	142	121	92	96	75	121
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	64	106	53	111	118	66	43	20	65	61	89
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	180	98	118	20	0	4	0	0	15	3	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	33	60	61	58	31	61	67	62	3	2	1
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	3	3	3	3	3	0.1	0.2	0.08	1	0.4	0.02
Net Inventories	·	10	9	8	9	11	11	10	9	10	9	29
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	10	9	8	9	11	11	10	9	10	10	29
Other current assets	·	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.8	2	3	0.8	2
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	36	32	37	45	42	44	52	62	72	82	91
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.0	1.0	1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.0	1.0	1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	24	20	25	30	23	20	25	33	38	44	55
Tangible fixed assets	·	20	16	20	24	23	18	22	28	28	32	38
Intagible fixed assets	·	4	5	5	6	0.7	2	3	6	10	13	18
Other non-current assets	·	5	8	11	14	18	22	26	28	33	38	36
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	5	7	10	13	17	21	25	27	32	36	36
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	324	305	278	243	203	186	173	154	168	157	212
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	23	33	33	31	21	19	23	23	33	44	132
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	19	27	25	21	16	13	17	15	20	29	115
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	0.4	0.1
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	4	6	8	10	5	7	7	8	12	16	17
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	300	272	245	213	182	167	150	131	135	113	80
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	300	272	245	213	182	167	150	131	135	113	80
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	220	193	165	133	102	87	70	51	55	33	0.03
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	324	305	278	243	203	186	173	154	168	157	212
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80	80

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −3.08 · 12th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −0.62

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.590

GMI

0.954

AQI

0.921

SGI

0.929

DEPI

1.202

SGAI

1.004

TATA

−0.050

LVGI

0.683

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 1.1552nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 1.2%39th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

10.46

Safe Zone

Sharpe

−0.17

Negative

Composite

70 and above

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.22×Turnover0.65×Leverage1.08=ROE12.4%

Price Risk

Momentum

−5.7%

Volatility

39.2%

Max Drawdown

−22.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.51P/E

P/B: 0.81
P/S: 1.15
ROE: 13.1%
ROA: 11.9%
EPS: 4.685
BVPS: 37.632
Gross Margin: 25.4%
Net Margin: 17.6%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 14.94
EV/EBITDA: —
Div Yield: 3.9%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 8.0M
Charter Capital: 79.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3): Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry: Đồ uống & giải khát
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for QHW. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV Masan Beverage

Inst

65.8%

5.3M

2023-12-31

Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Quảng Ninh

State

14.4%

1.2M

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Phạm Thị Thu Hương

Chief Accountant

Nguyễn Hữu Chính

General Director

Đàm Sơn

Member of Management Board

Top connections

VCF98.8%NQN96.2%

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

QHW among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

QHW among Consumer