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NQN

Công ty Cổ phần Nước sạch Quảng Ninh

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtNước & Khí đốtUPCOMCT
10.100
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+8.4%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
10.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
10.950

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.820
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend6.53%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→284
Payout ratio→25.4%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→10.100
Calibrated value vs last close→+8.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
10.950
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate6.53%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share284dps source: eventspayout ratio: 25.41
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1571551027950468110096146
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·5311171347519303894
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·6614620101532322220
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·55921328211255
Net Inventories
·32272525232120312829
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·32272625232121332830
Other current assets
·620.20.710610783
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,0749769571,0841,1881,0701,040944899854
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·9288898691,003998907845806778745
Tangible fixed assets
·9228868681,002997905843804776744
Intagible fixed assets
·5211122221
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000000544
Investment in joint ventures
·0000000544
Other non-current assets
·1287677101454
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1287677101454
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,2311,1311,0581,1631,2391,1161,1211,0449961,000
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·557473418544635526520448442447
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·281232189281349242226181214212
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·746160114947158362434
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.40.40.30.70.80.82223
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·276241229264285285294267228234
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·270237226262284283294267228234
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·674658640619604590601596554553
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·674658640619604590601596554553
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·508508508508508508508508403403
Other Reserves
·0000010,39310,3932191108
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·80725945322020202010
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·65575344424152474032
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,2311,1311,0581,1631,2391,1161,1211,0449961,000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·508508508508508508503503403403

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
66
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
99
Revenue Quality
29

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 0.09 · 94th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.28
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
4.312
GMI
1.011
AQI
1.540
SGI
1.071
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
1.025
TATA
−0.157
LVGI
1.080

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
4.5390th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
4.5%65th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows high signals of aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 0.0882 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +2.28. Key component drivers include a very large DSRI (4.3117) and an elevated AQI (1.5402). Offsetting signals include very strong accruals and cash-conversion metrics (TATA = -0.1573; earnings-quality accruals and cash-conversion = 100/100 each) but the Altman Z-Score of 1.45 places the company in the distress zone for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 5/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 0.0882 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns); company ranks in the 94th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score rose by +2.28 year-over-year (shows a notable change in accounting signals versus last year). Note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and less informative for Vietnam, so percentile and trajectory matter more.
  • DSRI = 4.3117 (Days Sales Receivables Index measures receivables relative to sales; a value well above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales and can signal revenue recognition or collection issues).
  • AQI = 1.5402 (Asset Quality Index measures the proportion of intangible, deferred, and non-current assets to total assets; >1 indicates rising non-operating or hard-to-value assets that can be used to manage earnings).
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 29.3/100 (these earnings-quality sub-scores measure the conservatism and persistence of revenue and receivables; the company scores extremely poorly on both, consistent with the high DSRI).
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 4.53 (90th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; a high number here means profit is not converting into operating cash flow, which is a concern for earnings quality despite the single-year cash-conversion subscore being 100/100).
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.45 (measures distance to bankruptcy; 1.45 is in the distress zone, indicating low insolvency buffer under the Altman model).
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA = -0.1573 (Total Accruals to Total Assets is negative, and the accruals-quality score is perfect; these indicate low accruals or conservative accrual patterns in reported profit).
  • Cash conversion (earnings-quality component) = 100.0/100 (on the earnings-quality scoring, the company shows strong short-term cash vs profit alignment for the most recent reporting period).
  • Margin quality = 98.7/100 (measures stability and plausibility of margins; company scores highly here).
  • SGI = 1.0713 and DEPI = 1.0000 (sales growth index modest at ~7% and depreciation index stable at 1.0, suggesting growth is present but not extreme and depreciation policies are stable).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures fundamentals; a middle score indicating neither strong deterioration nor clear improvement).
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and the parent company has not reported net loss in any of the last 0 consecutive years to FY2025 (i.e., no recent parent-level losses).
Ownership Risk

Extremely concentrated state ownership: Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Quảng Ninh holds 96.2% of shares (state shareholder). Remaining named individual shareholders each hold 0.1%. Such concentration implies state control and potential related-party interactions consistent with Vietnamese SOE practices; no director-deal registrations were provided in the data (registrations, when present, are intentions recorded with the exchange rather than completed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the growth in accounts receivable and the composition of receivables in the FY2025 notes (receivables note / schedule) to the revenue note to assess whether receivables growth is trade-related or includes prepayments, long-term receivables, or loans to related parties.
  • Reconcile consolidated operating cash flow (cash flow statement) to consolidated net profit for FY2023–FY2025 to confirm the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 4.53) and identify timing or noncash drivers of profit.
  • Review the related-party transactions note for FY2025 for any large balances or flows (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, amounts due from related parties) that would explain the 4.5% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Examine the statement of changes in equity and the auditor’s report for disclosures on solvency and going-concern to corroborate the positive owner’s equity and the absence of accumulated losses, and to see auditor commentary given the Altman Z-Score = 1.45 (distress-zone indicator).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.45
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.66
Negative
Composite
46
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.81×Interest Burden1.11×Op. Margin0.08×Turnover0.71×Leverage1.83=ROE9.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
−18.2%
Volatility
38.2%
Max Drawdown
−33.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.90P/E
P/B
0.76
P/S
0.59
ROE
9.8%
ROA
5.5%
EPS
1.279
BVPS
13.264
Gross Margin
19.8%
Net Margin
7.5%
D/E
0.51
Current Ratio
0.56
Rev Growth
+7.1%
Profit Growth
+16.1%
EV/EBITDA
2.66
Div Yield
2.8%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
50.8M
Charter Capital
508B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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