QCG

Công ty Cổ phần Quốc Cường Gia Lai

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT

10.050

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+16.6%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 10.050
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 11.722

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details

Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.969

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.36%

E/(D+E)

88.18%

Kd(1-t)

6.10%

D/(D+E)

11.82%

WACC

10.74%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.50%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→10.050

Calibrated value vs last close→+16.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

11.722

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.74%high risk: no

Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow7.8 tỷone off strip ratio: 0.21

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	0.5%	2.0%	3.5%	5.0%	6.5%
8.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

QCG among Real Estate

Every stock in the sector, QCG marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is QCG. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	2,241	2,054	7,531	7,835	7,640	8,004	9,131	8,858	9,591	6,720	5,989	5,293	4,686	·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	142	115	28	77	31	41	16	133	98	102	17	106	115	·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	0	6	18	17	17	17	0	0	·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	814	635	442	524	289	449	452	1,120	2,577	570	505	1,058	487	·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	96	162	129	193	23	108	97	801	1,202	150	135	649	101	·
Net Inventories	·	1,271	1,279	7,036	7,211	7,266	7,373	8,449	7,515	6,852	6,020	5,442	4,120	4,074	·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	1,274	1,279	7,036	7,211	7,270	7,377	8,453	7,520	6,872	6,053	5,501	4,179	4,074	·
Other current assets	·	14	25	25	23	55	142	208	72	47	11	8	9	11	·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	0	0	2	·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	6,503	6,831	2,036	2,113	2,177	2,329	2,268	2,159	1,818	1,497	1,990	1,592	1,675	·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	74	74	142	153	142	142	142	153	142	244	237	80	0	·
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	74	74	142	153	142	142	142	153	142	244	237	80	0	·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	944	1,051	1,143	1,213	1,285	1,105	1,060	1,101	598	290	299	310	1,097	·
Tangible fixed assets	·	896	1,003	1,095	1,166	1,237	1,057	1,013	1,053	550	242	251	262	276	·
Intagible fixed assets	·	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	48	·
Investment in properties	·	19	20	15	16	17	18	20	21	22	22	0	0	0	·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	50	319	732	729	732	840	746	633	261	338	241	129	572	·
Investments in associate companies	·	0	269	683	680	680	790	611	612	240	338	241	129	346	·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	50	50	50	50	52	50	134	22	22	0	0	0	226	·
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−0.09	−0.09	−0.09	−0.09	−0.09	−0.09	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	·
Other non-current assets	·	13	6	1	0.9	0.9	0.3	12	13	467	113	0.3	0.3	5	·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	13	6	1	0.9	0.9	0.3	1.0	0.4	118	113	0.3	0.3	0.2	·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	8,744	8,885	9,567	9,949	9,817	10,333	11,399	11,017	11,409	8,217	7,979	6,885	6,361	·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	3,999	4,308	5,225	5,610	5,510	6,094	7,124	6,838	7,302	4,210	4,040	2,951	3,857	·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	3,925	4,004	4,957	5,301	5,169	5,724	6,723	6,411	6,990	4,125	2,513	1,145	1,894	·
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	820	137	314	287	115	137	96	173	175	1,788	519	115	223	·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	909	150	230	367	556	403	1,339	5	28	71	113	116	559	·
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	75	304	269	309	340	370	401	427	312	85	1,527	1,806	1,963	·
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	14	243	268	308	339	368	394	420	311	81	1,429	1,650	1,635	·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	4,745	4,577	4,342	4,339	4,307	4,239	4,276	4,179	4,106	4,007	3,939	3,934	2,310	·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	4,745	4,577	4,342	4,339	4,307	4,239	4,276	4,179	4,106	4,007	3,939	3,934	2,310	·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	1,271	·
Other Reserves	·	24	24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	·
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	23	·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	752	580	521	513	491	426	374	293	415	248	203	201	169	·
Minority Interest	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	194	·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	8,744	8,885	9,567	9,949	9,817	10,333	11,399	11,017	11,409	8,217	7,979	6,885	6,361	·
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	22	8	23	30	44	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	·
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	2,751	1,271	·
Good will (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	13	348	0	0	0	0	·
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	375	379	227	231	222	219	308	292	98	165	143	139	0	·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

75th–90th

M −1.46 · 80th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −1.73

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.976

GMI

0.659

AQI

0.977

SGI

0.649

DEPI

0.953

SGAI

1.477

TATA

0.148

LVGI

0.942

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: −4.196th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 2.2%50th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows several accounting signals of concern: a Beneish M-Score of -1.4585 (80th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -1.73, and a very low Altman Z-Score of 0.67 (distress zone). Earnings-quality measures are poor overall (Earnings Quality 11.8/100) driven by near-zero cash and receivables conversion metrics (Cash conversion 0.0/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100) and a very low total accruals-impact (TATA 0.1484).

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score -1.4585: measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; the company ranks at the 80th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and saw a year-over-year M-Score change of -1.73 (the trajectory is a secondary cue given low serial correlation of M-Scores). Note: the -1.78 US-calibrated cutoff is less applicable in Vietnam (about 28% of VN firms cross it).
DSRI 1.9761: the Days' Sales Receivable Index near 2.0 indicates receivables (or revenue recognition timing) grew relative to sales, a typical signal the model flags for revenue-related aggressiveness.
SGAI 1.4768: selling, general & administrative expenses increased proportionally to sales, which the Beneish model interprets as a potential pressure on reported margins or cost recognition anomalies.
TATA 0.1484: total accruals to total assets is positive but modest; combined with very poor cash conversion this implies reported profits are not being converted to cash (see cash-conversion check).
Altman Z-Score 0.67: measures financial distress and distance to bankruptcy; 0.67 places the company in the distress zone under the Altman framework.
Cash-conversion three-year metric -4.19 (6th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials): operating cash flow divided by net profit over three years is strongly negative, indicating profits are not turning into cash.
Earnings-quality sub-scores all at or near 0 for several categories (Cash conversion 0.0/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100, Revenue quality 0.0/100): these indicate material weaknesses in the quality of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

AQI 0.9773 and DEPI 0.9527: asset quality index (AQI < 1) and depreciation index (DEPI slightly under 1) do not show large built-in conservatism reversals—AQI ~0.9773 suggests no major write-offs of long-lived assets relative to prior period.
SGI 0.6490 and GMI 0.6587: sales growth index and gross margin index both below 1 indicate the company experienced lower sales growth and improved or stable gross margins versus the prior year rather than aggressive upward margin restatements (SGI <1 means sales shrank; GMI <1 means gross margins improved).
Receivables outside the trade cycle 2.2% of total assets (50th percentile): the level of non-trade receivables/prepayments/long-term receivables is middling among Vietnamese peers, not unusually large.
Piotroski F-Score 6/9: fundamental score is neutral to moderately healthy on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.

Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: Nguyễn Thị Như Loan holds 37.0% and another individual, Nguyễn Ngọc Huyền My, holds 14.3%, together accounting for a large block of shares; remaining named individuals hold much smaller stakes. This is a tightly held, primarily individual-controlled shareholder register.

To check in the filings

Compare the FY2025 note(s) on trade receivables, prepayments and loans receivable to quantify the 2.2% of total assets described as receivables outside the trade cycle.
Reconcile operating cash flow and profit in the cash-flow statement and profit-and-loss (OCI) to confirm the three-year cash-conversion ratio that produced -4.19.
Examine the auditor’s report and the accounting-policy notes for revenue recognition and allowance for doubtful accounts to assess drivers of DSRI = 1.9761 and the 0.0/100 receivables-quality score.
Check the consolidated statement of changes in equity and the parent profit note to verify there are no accumulated losses and to confirm owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.67

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−0.67

Negative

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.81×Interest Burden0.77×Op. Margin0.58×Turnover0.05×Leverage1.84=ROE3.6%

Price Risk

Momentum

−29.2%

Volatility

35.6%

Max Drawdown

−49.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

16.38P/E

P/B: 0.64
P/S: 5.93
ROE: 4.0%
ROA: 1.9%
EPS: 623
BVPS: 15.881
Gross Margin: 39.0%
Net Margin: 36.1%
D/E: 0.18
Current Ratio: 0.57
Rev Growth: −35.1%
Profit Growth: +108.4%
EV/EBITDA: 19.58
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 275M
Charter Capital: 2,751B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3): Bất động sản
Sub-industry: Bất động sản
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Nguyễn Thị Như Loan

Indiv

37.0%

102M

2025-12-31

Nguyễn Ngọc Huyền My

Indiv

14.3%

39.4M

2025-12-31

Lầu Đức Duy

Indiv

3.8%

10.5M

2025-12-31

Nguyễn Thị Ánh Nguyệt

Indiv

3.5%

9.7M

2024-06-30

Lưu Đình Phát

Indiv

0.7%

2.0M

2024-06-30

Hồ Viết Mạnh

Indiv

0.6%

1.5M

2024-06-30

Lại Thị Hoàng Yến

Indiv

0.5%

1.5M

2025-12-31

Lại Thế Hà

Indiv

0.2%

597,500

2025-12-31

Nguyễn Quốc Cường

Indiv

0.2%

537,500

2025-12-31

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thị Như Loan37.0%

General Director

Lại Thế Hà0.2%

Chairman of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Nguyễn Quốc Cường0.2%

Member of Management Board

Đào Quang Diệu

Head of Supervisors Board

Phạm Thị Thùy Trang

Member of Supervisors Board

Trương Thị Thêu

Person in charge of Corporate governace

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

QCG among Real Estate

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

QCG among Real Estate

Ownership network