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Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng và Phát triển Hạ tầng Viễn Thông

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT
9.500
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+3.0%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
9.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.781

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→1.59B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+3.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
9.781
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA1.6 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2526313727·29353330303735
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·39529·428520.93
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000.32·0000005
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1813242613·20271915192817
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·10.090.080.40.4·0.10.10.30.30.10.10.1
Net Inventories
·54392·5679958
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·54392·6679958
Other current assets
·0.060.070.10.10.08·0.080.10.10.20.132
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000·0000021
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·0.81111·3332323
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·0.50.810.71·2232222
Tangible fixed assets
·0.50.810.71·2232222
Investment in properties
·0.20.30.10.20.2·0.40.080.10.20.200.02
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00000·19,44019,44019,4400.20.30.30.8
Investments in associate companies
·00000·00000.080.080.08
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000·159,000159,000159,0000.20.20.20.7
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·00000·−139,560−139,560−139,560−139,560−98,700−0.01−0.01
Other non-current assets
·0.030.050.10.20.01·0.040.040.040.060.050.10.06
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.030.050.10.20.01·0.040.040.040.060.050.10.05
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2627323828·32383733333938
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·5611177·915129101617
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·5611177·91512991617
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00000·2300.20.50.76
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·01010.2·0.30.50.60.60100,0011
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·00000·0000.20.40.20.1
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00000·0000.20.400
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·2121222121·22232424232321
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·2121222121·22232424232321
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1515151515·15151515151515
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·10.8210.8·122221.0−0.6
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·2627323828·32383733333938
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1515151515·15151515151515
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
31
Weak
Accrual Quality
21
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
69
Margin Stability
50

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.90 · 88th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.40
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.053
GMI
1.290
AQI
0.708
SGI
1.276
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.679
TATA
0.246
LVGI
0.858

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.0949th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
4.5%65th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.899, which is above the US-based -1.78 cutoff but sits in the 88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and has risen by +2.40 year-over-year; these numbers point to comparatively aggressive accounting metrics among Vietnamese companies and a notable year-over-year shift. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 31.2/100 with very weak cash-conversion (0.0/100) and accruals quality (21.2/100) contrasts with a relatively stronger receivables quality (68.6/100); solvency-distance is large (Altman Z-Score 7.72) and operating fundamentals are neutral (Piotroski F-Score 5/9).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -0.899 (88th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +2.40) — the M-Score measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios; the peer percentile and the positive YoY move indicate the company is more aggressive on accounting metrics than most Vietnamese peers and that the metrics have trended toward greater aggressiveness this year.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2456 — this component measures the extent of accruals in reported earnings; a positive and sizable TATA indicates earnings are being supported by accruals rather than cash.
  • Cash-conversion component of Earnings Quality = 0.0/100 and three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.09 (49th percentile) — these measure how much reported profit translates into operating cash; the very low score and middling percentile suggest profit is not reliably converting into cash.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.2896 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.2758 — GMI > 1 signals deteriorating gross margins year-over-year and SGI > 1 signals sales growth; together they can reflect margin pressure amid growth, which is one of Beneish's inputs associated with manipulation risk.
  • Director-deal registrations: 2 sale registrations (2 traders; 924,500 shares) and 2 purchase registrations (2 traders; 320,000 shares, one registration without a volume) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are exchange filings of intended trades (registrations), not evidence of executed market trades, but show insider intent to transact during the year.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 7.72 (safe zone) — this measures bankruptcy distance; a value this high indicates low bankruptcy risk under the Altman framework.
  • Receivables-quality 68.6/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.5% of total assets (65th percentile) — the receivables-quality score and a modest level of non-trade receivables suggest receivables are not unusually large relative to assets for Vietnamese peers.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.7080 and SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Expense Index) = 0.6795 — AQI < 1 indicates no large shift toward capitalising costs or rising long-lived asset ratios that Beneish flags, and SGAI < 1 indicates SG&A expenses did not rise relative to sales; both can be interpreted as counters to certain manipulation signals.
  • No accumulated losses, owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive, and parent profit not in net loss for any of the last three years — these are factual signals from the statements that the company is not showing statutory loss indicators in its reported equity or parent profit series.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: the top individual shareholder, Kỳ Minh Khương, holds 21.3%, with the next largest holders at 3.5%, 3.1%, 2.7% and 2.7%. This concentration implies a dominant individual shareholder presence; director-deal registrations (2 sales totalling 924,500 shares and 2 purchase registrations totalling 320,000 shares, one without a volume) were disclosed in the past year and are registrations of intended trades, not evidence of executed transactions.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 operating cash flow (statement of cash flows) with net profit in the parent income statement and the notes to cash flow to reconcile the three-year cash-conversion ratio cited (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.09).
  • Inspect the breakdown of 'receivables and other long-term receivables' in the notes (trade receivables vs prepayments to suppliers vs loans receivable) to verify the 4.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Review the accruals and provisioning notes and reconcile the components used to compute TATA = 0.2456 (total accruals / total assets) — check depreciation, changes in working capital, provisions and any non-cash adjustments.
  • Check the director/insider transaction registry entries and related-party transaction schedule in the annual report to confirm the nature and counterparty relationships behind the registered sales and purchase intentions disclosed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
7.72
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.56
Negative
Composite
26
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.82×Interest Burden0.97×Op. Margin0.04×Turnover1.34×Leverage1.23=ROE5.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
−48.9%
Volatility
135.6%
Max Drawdown
−69.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.79P/E
P/B
0.60
P/S
0.36
ROE
5.1%
ROA
4.0%
EPS
805
BVPS
15.898
Gross Margin
11.0%
Net Margin
3.1%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
5.12
EV/EBITDA
6.06
Div Yield
5.3%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
1.3M
Charter Capital
13.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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