PTT

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí Đông Dương

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiUPCOMCT

8.100

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

−3.7%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 8.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 7.802

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details

Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→37.69B

Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x

Years of data→7

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→8.100

Calibrated value vs last close→−3.7%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

7.802

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA37.7 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

PTT among Construction

Every stock in the sector, PTT marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is PTT. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	153	204	114	80	100	82	80	51	72	111	92	145	134
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	12	12	13	18	78	54	29	13	14	8	36	49	31
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	56	152	57	40	0	4	14	0	0.6	5	0	0	6
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	61	23	32	18	21	23	35	30	53	85	54	87	90
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	7	1	5	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.09	1	0.2	4	0.3	0.3	0.4
Net Inventories	·	20	12	10	2	0.03	0.09	0.2	0.4	0.5	2	2	3	2
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	20	12	10	2	0.03	0.09	0.8	0.8	1	3	3	3	2
Other current assets	·	6	4	4	2	1	1	2	7	3	11	0.9	7	5
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	3
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	369	112	133	166	37	55	93	139	116	156	72	84	97
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	4	3	3	8	3	4	4	2	1	1	0.3	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	4	3	3	8	3	4	4	2	1	1	0.3	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	365	108	125	156	33	51	89	137	114	155	70	82	94
Tangible fixed assets	·	365	108	125	156	33	51	89	137	114	155	70	82	94
Intagible fixed assets	·	0.2	0.09	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.04
Other non-current assets	·	0.01	0.02	1	2	0.6	0.01	0.06	0.1	0.1	0.4	1	2	4
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	0.01	0.02	1	2	0.6	0.01	0.06	0.1	0.1	0.4	1	2	3
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	523	315	247	245	137	137	172	190	187	268	164	229	232
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	289	96	116	124	20	24	59	79	81	166	67	135	140
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	88	42	52	47	19	22	38	36	48	99	53	114	120
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	44	14	14	14	0	3	19	15	6	17	1	29	47
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0.05	0.03	0.4	0.03	0.04
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	201	54	63	77	1.0	2	21	43	33	68	14	21	20
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	200	49	62	76	0	0.9	19	40	30	64	9	0	0
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	234	219	132	121	117	113	113	111	107	101	98	94	92
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	234	219	132	121	117	113	113	111	107	101	98	94	92
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	165	165	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	30	30	21	16	13	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	39	24	11	5	4	9	11	11	7	1	−2	−6	−8
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	523	315	247	245	137	137	172	190	187	268	164	229	232
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	165	165	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

75th–90th

M −0.99 · 88th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +1.99

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.661

GMI

1.748

AQI

0.642

SGI

1.625

DEPI

1.906

SGAI

0.676

TATA

0.044

LVGI

1.908

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 0.6634th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 2.0%49th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.9934 and sits at the 88th percentile among Vietnamese peers, with a year-over-year increase of +1.99 (the -1.78 US cutoff is US-calibrated and not directly decisive for Vietnam). Earnings-quality metrics show severe weaknesses in cash and receivables conversion (cash conversion 0.0/100, receivables quality 0.0/100) and low overall Earnings Quality (24.3/100). Financial-distress and fundamental indicators are weak: Altman Z-Score 1.61 (distress zone) and Piotroski F-Score 2/9.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score = -0.9934, Vietnam peer percentile = 88th, YoY change = +1.99. The M-Score components showing the largest upward pressure are DSRI = 1.6611 (days-sales-receivables index), DEPI = 1.9062 (depreciation index), LVGI = 1.9079 (leverage index) and GMI = 1.7484 (gross-margin index).
Earnings Quality = 24.3/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100, indicating reported profit is not converting into operating cash and receivables/prepayments are scoring poorly in the quality algorithm.
Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.66 (34th percentile vs Vietnamese non-financials), showing low conversion of profit into cash relative to peers.
Altman Z-Score = 1.61 (distress zone), signalling shortfall on the composite bankruptcy-distance metric.
Piotroski F-Score = 2/9, indicating weak recent fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency criteria).
SGAI = 0.6764 and SGA-focused revenue-quality metrics: Revenue quality = 5.3/100 and Margin quality = 19.7/100, suggesting weakness in sustainable margin and revenue recognition patterns.

Positive Signals

Accruals quality = 82.3/100, indicating that accruals-based distortions (total accruals relative to assets or similar inputs used in the score) appear relatively well-behaved.
AQI (Asset quality index) = 0.6423 (lower AQI generally indicates fewer increases in non-current asset reclassifications or capitalized items that Beneish associates with earnings manipulation pressure).
Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.0% of total assets (49th percentile), i.e. not unusually large relative to Vietnamese peers—prepayments/loans/long receivables are about 2.0% of assets.
No accumulated losses (undistributed earnings not negative) and parent-company net loss count = 0 years through FY2025, i.e. historical statutory losses are not present in the published statements.

Ownership Risk

Control is concentrated: PVT (Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí) owns 54.1% (control; disclosed 2026-06-30). Two other large holders are individual Nguyễn Hồng Hiệp 20.9% and Công ty TNHH Vận Tải Biển Châu Á Thái Bình Dương 20.6%. The company is part of a listed group under the same parent (PVT) that also controls GSP, PDV and PVP, indicating a group structure with common control over related listed subsidiaries.

To check in the filings

Compare the movements in trade receivables, prepayments and loans receivable lines in the FY2025 notes to the DSRI component (DSRI = 1.6611) to see which receivable categories drove the uplift.
Reconcile operating cash flow vs. net profit in the cash-flow statement and the cash-flow note for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio (0.66) and identify non-cash items or timing differences.
Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation notes and the reconciliation of depreciation expense to book value to understand the DEPI = 1.9062 and LVGI = 1.9079 contributions (changes in depreciation policy, revaluations or asset additions).
Review related-party schedules and the notes on advances/loans to/from related parties given the group ownership (PVT controlling 54.1%) to check for material intra-group balances that could affect receivables or cash conversion metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.61

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−0.27

Negative

Composite

Below 30

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.45×Op. Margin0.03×Turnover0.90×Leverage2.24=ROE7.8%

Price Risk

Momentum

−32.3%

Volatility

159.4%

Max Drawdown

−64.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.42P/E

P/B: 0.50
P/S: 0.25
ROE: 8.1%
ROA: 4.4%
EPS: 1.106
BVPS: 14.172
Gross Margin: 7.9%
Net Margin: 3.9%
D/E: 1.04
Current Ratio: 1.75
Rev Growth: +62.5%
Profit Growth: −25.4%
EV/EBITDA: 5.75
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 16.5M
Charter Capital: 165B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3): Vận tải
Sub-industry: Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for PTT. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí

PVT

54.1%

8.9M

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Hồng Hiệp

Indiv

20.9%

3.4M

2025-09-30

Công ty TNHH Vận Tải Biển Châu Á Thái Bình Dương

Inst

20.6%

3.4M

2025-09-30

Board & Management

Phạm Hồng Chấn

Deputy Director

Phạm Tuấn Anh

Deputy Director

Nguyễn Thế Dân

Head of Supervisors Board

Nguyễn Thị Huyền

Head of Accounting department

Nguyễn Bá Nghị

Member of Supervisors Board

Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng

Member of Management Board

Đỗ Đức Hùng

Member of Management Board

Lê Thị Hải Yến

Member of Supervisors Board

Lê Thanh Sơn

Member of Management Board/Director

Lê Mạnh Tuấn

Chairman of Management Board

Vũ Hoài Nam

Deputy Director

Bùi Hữu Cơ

Deputy Director

Nguyễn Đình Chính

Chief Accountant

Đỗ Lan Phương

Spokesman

Top connections

GSP68.0%PVP64.9%PDV54.1%

Listed group

PVTTổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí
Parent: holds over 50%
54.1%
2026-06-30

Also held by PVT:GSP PDV PVP

Read from the shareholder lists: control above 50% of the shares (VAS 25), significant influence at 20% or more (VAS 07). Each date is that of the disclosure.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

PTT among Construction

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Listed group

Ownership network

Listed group

PTT among Construction