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VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiUPCOMCT
8.100
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−3.7%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
8.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.802

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→37.69B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→8.100
Calibrated value vs last close→−3.7%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
7.802
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA37.7 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·153204114801008280517211192145134
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1212131878542913148364931
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·561525740041400.65006
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·61233218212335305385548790
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·7150.20.10.20.0910.240.30.30.4
Net Inventories
·20121020.030.090.20.40.52232
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·20121020.030.090.80.813332
Other current assets
·644211273110.975
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000053
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·369112133166375593139116156728497
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·43383442110.300
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·43383442110.300
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·365108125156335189137114155708294
Tangible fixed assets
·365108125156335189137114155708294
Intagible fixed assets
·0.20.090.1000000000.010.04
Other non-current assets
·0.010.02120.60.010.060.10.10.4124
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.010.02120.60.010.060.10.10.4123
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·523315247245137137172190187268164229232
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·28996116124202459798116667135140
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·8842524719223836489953114120
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4414141403191561712947
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·002400000.050.030.40.030.04
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2015463771.0221433368142120
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·20049627600.919403064900
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·234219132121117113113111107101989492
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·234219132121117113113111107101989492
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·165165100100100100100100100100100100100
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·303021161341000000
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·392411549111171−2−6−8
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·523315247245137137172190187268164229232
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·165165100100100100100100100100100100100

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
24
Poor
Accrual Quality
82
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
20
Revenue Quality
5

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.99 · 88th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.99
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.661
GMI
1.748
AQI
0.642
SGI
1.625
DEPI
1.906
SGAI
0.676
TATA
0.044
LVGI
1.908

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.6634th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
2.0%49th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.9934 and sits at the 88th percentile among Vietnamese peers, with a year-over-year increase of +1.99 (the -1.78 US cutoff is US-calibrated and not directly decisive for Vietnam). Earnings-quality metrics show severe weaknesses in cash and receivables conversion (cash conversion 0.0/100, receivables quality 0.0/100) and low overall Earnings Quality (24.3/100). Financial-distress and fundamental indicators are weak: Altman Z-Score 1.61 (distress zone) and Piotroski F-Score 2/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -0.9934, Vietnam peer percentile = 88th, YoY change = +1.99. The M-Score components showing the largest upward pressure are DSRI = 1.6611 (days-sales-receivables index), DEPI = 1.9062 (depreciation index), LVGI = 1.9079 (leverage index) and GMI = 1.7484 (gross-margin index).
  • Earnings Quality = 24.3/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100, indicating reported profit is not converting into operating cash and receivables/prepayments are scoring poorly in the quality algorithm.
  • Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.66 (34th percentile vs Vietnamese non-financials), showing low conversion of profit into cash relative to peers.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.61 (distress zone), signalling shortfall on the composite bankruptcy-distance metric.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 2/9, indicating weak recent fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency criteria).
  • SGAI = 0.6764 and SGA-focused revenue-quality metrics: Revenue quality = 5.3/100 and Margin quality = 19.7/100, suggesting weakness in sustainable margin and revenue recognition patterns.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 82.3/100, indicating that accruals-based distortions (total accruals relative to assets or similar inputs used in the score) appear relatively well-behaved.
  • AQI (Asset quality index) = 0.6423 (lower AQI generally indicates fewer increases in non-current asset reclassifications or capitalized items that Beneish associates with earnings manipulation pressure).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.0% of total assets (49th percentile), i.e. not unusually large relative to Vietnamese peers—prepayments/loans/long receivables are about 2.0% of assets.
  • No accumulated losses (undistributed earnings not negative) and parent-company net loss count = 0 years through FY2025, i.e. historical statutory losses are not present in the published statements.
Ownership Risk

Control is concentrated: PVT (Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí) owns 54.1% (control; disclosed 2026-06-30). Two other large holders are individual Nguyễn Hồng Hiệp 20.9% and Công ty TNHH Vận Tải Biển Châu Á Thái Bình Dương 20.6%. The company is part of a listed group under the same parent (PVT) that also controls GSP, PDV and PVP, indicating a group structure with common control over related listed subsidiaries.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the movements in trade receivables, prepayments and loans receivable lines in the FY2025 notes to the DSRI component (DSRI = 1.6611) to see which receivable categories drove the uplift.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow vs. net profit in the cash-flow statement and the cash-flow note for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio (0.66) and identify non-cash items or timing differences.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation notes and the reconciliation of depreciation expense to book value to understand the DEPI = 1.9062 and LVGI = 1.9079 contributions (changes in depreciation policy, revaluations or asset additions).
  • Review related-party schedules and the notes on advances/loans to/from related parties given the group ownership (PVT controlling 54.1%) to check for material intra-group balances that could affect receivables or cash conversion metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.61
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.27
Negative
Composite
29
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.45×Op. Margin0.03×Turnover0.90×Leverage2.24=ROE7.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
−32.3%
Volatility
159.4%
Max Drawdown
−64.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.42P/E
P/B
0.50
P/S
0.25
ROE
8.1%
ROA
4.4%
EPS
1.106
BVPS
14.172
Gross Margin
7.9%
Net Margin
3.9%
D/E
1.04
Current Ratio
1.75
Rev Growth
+62.5%
Profit Growth
−25.4%
EV/EBITDA
5.75
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
16.5M
Charter Capital
165B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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