Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 21.160
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.3%40th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals for PTM show a mixed picture: the Beneish M-Score is -0.0905 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating more aggressive accounting metrics relative to peers even though the absolute M-Score is above the US -1.78 manipulaton cutoff. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 26.9/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and low margin and revenue quality, while solvency appears comfortable (Altman Z-Score 4.38 in the ‘safe’ zone) and director-deal registrations are net positive (10 purchase registrations, net registered volume +6.90% of shares outstanding).
- Beneish M-Score -0.0905 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers): the M-Score combines eight indicators of earnings manipulation risk; the high peer percentile says PTM’s pattern of the eight inputs is more aggressive than most Vietnamese companies even though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam.
- AQI (Days sales in receivables and related accrual quality): 4.8085 — this component is elevated and contributes to the overall M-Score, measuring unusual asset quality/receivable patterns.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets): 0.2810 — measures total accruals as a share of assets; a high positive number signals a material use of accruals in reported earnings.
- SGAI (sales, general & administrative expenses index): 1.4803 — measures change in SG&A relative to sales; an increase can indicate costs being managed or shifted into margins in ways that affect reported profit.
- LVGI (leverage index): 1.5620 — measures change in leverage; rising leverage can indicate balance-sheet pressure and is part of the M-Score pressure.
- Earnings-Quality composite 26.9/100 with very low sub-scores: Accruals quality 15.9/100, Cash conversion 0.0/100, Margin quality 13.2/100, Revenue quality 8.1/100 — these quantify weak convertibility of reported profits into cash, weak margins and revenue reliability.
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9 — this score summarizes nine fundamental signals; a 2 indicates weak operating and financial-strength signals year-on-year.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.2% of total assets (40th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials): while not huge, the presence of prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside the normal trade cycle is a noteworthy item to inspect given the low cash-conversion score.
- Altman Z-Score 4.38 (safe zone) — this composite measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios; PTM is well inside the safe zone.
- Receivables quality sub-score 100.0/100 — this metric indicates receivables themselves look clean by the scoring rules used here.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — the balance sheet shows retained earnings are not negative and equity is positive.
- Director-deal registrations: 10 purchase registrations, 0 sale registrations, net registered volume +6.90% of shares outstanding — the disclosed registrations (not executed trades) show insider/related parties registering net purchases over the past year, which is a contemporaneous behavioral signal to record (registrations can repeat for the same holder).
HAX (Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Ô tô Hàng Xanh) holds 52.1% (control, disclosed 2026-06-30), with three individuals holding a further material block (11.3%, 9.4%, 6.2%, 6.0%). The shareholder base is therefore concentrated with a controlling listed parent (HAX) and several significant individual holders.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) and schedule(s) for prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables to confirm the 1.2% of total assets labeled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the components of total accruals in the cash-flow and balance-sheet reconciliation to verify the TATA = 0.2810 figure (total accruals / total assets) and inspect what contributed most to accruals.
- Inspect the cash-flow statement and the operating cash conversion note for FY2025 to verify the Cash conversion = 0.0/100 result and to see timing differences between profit and cash receipts/payments.
- Review related-party disclosure notes and the schedule of transactions with controlling shareholder HAX to understand the nature and terms of any intercompany balances or transactions given the 52.1% controlling stake.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.05
- P/S
- 0.38
- ROE
- 7.7%
- ROA
- 5.8%
- EPS
- 1.020
- BVPS
- 13.362
- Gross Margin
- 12.8%
- Net Margin
- 2.8%
- D/E
- 0.30
- Current Ratio
- 2.15
- Rev Growth
- −7.8%
- Profit Growth
- −72.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 19.99
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 35.2M
- Charter Capital
- 352B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất ô tô
- Company Type
- CT