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PTM

Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất, Thương mại Và Dịch vụ Ô tô PTM

VietnamCyclicalsÔ tô và phụ tùngUPCOMCT
15.500
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+36.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
15.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
21.160

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Ô tô và phụ tùng→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Ô tô và phụ tùng” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→92.75B
Fair EV/EBITDA→14.7x
Years of data→4
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→15.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+36.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
21.160
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA92.7 tỷebitda source: sector normalized thin historyyears of data: 4
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·426435123·1831373429
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·231578·210445
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·300·00007
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·8313450·51930264
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·6759·0.012130.020.02
Net Inventories
·29812859·113412
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·29913060·103412
Other current assets
·19157·100.060.20.080.1
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000·00000.00
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·24314167·12944511
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·322·0.010.010.010.010
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·322·0.010.010.010.010
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·13712260·1293445
Tangible fixed assets
·11112260·1293445
Intagible fixed assets
·260.010.03·00000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·000·0000.15
Investments in associate companies
·000·00008
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·000·0000.10.1
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000·0000−3
Other non-current assets
·73165·0.400.040.30.6
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·15165·0.400.040.30.6
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·669576190·14835403940
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·198109130·1101522
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·19810958·1101522
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1422648·420000
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·7172·200.130.040.10
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0071·00000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·47046660·3733363738
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·47046660·3733363738
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·32032042·4242424242
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.10.10.1·0.10.10.10.10.09
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·15014618·−5−9−7−5−4
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·669576190·14835403940
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·000·01616130
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·32032042·4242424242
Good will (Bn. VND)
·5800·00000
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·0.0700·00000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
27
Poor
Accrual Quality
16
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
13
Revenue Quality
8

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M −0.09 · 93rd pctile vs VN companies
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.672
GMI
1.407
AQI
4.808
SGI
0.922
DEPI
0.644
SGAI
1.480
TATA
0.281
LVGI
1.562

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
1.3%40th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The accounting signals for PTM show a mixed picture: the Beneish M-Score is -0.0905 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating more aggressive accounting metrics relative to peers even though the absolute M-Score is above the US -1.78 manipulaton cutoff. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 26.9/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and low margin and revenue quality, while solvency appears comfortable (Altman Z-Score 4.38 in the ‘safe’ zone) and director-deal registrations are net positive (10 purchase registrations, net registered volume +6.90% of shares outstanding).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -0.0905 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers): the M-Score combines eight indicators of earnings manipulation risk; the high peer percentile says PTM’s pattern of the eight inputs is more aggressive than most Vietnamese companies even though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam.
  • AQI (Days sales in receivables and related accrual quality): 4.8085 — this component is elevated and contributes to the overall M-Score, measuring unusual asset quality/receivable patterns.
  • TATA (total accruals to total assets): 0.2810 — measures total accruals as a share of assets; a high positive number signals a material use of accruals in reported earnings.
  • SGAI (sales, general & administrative expenses index): 1.4803 — measures change in SG&A relative to sales; an increase can indicate costs being managed or shifted into margins in ways that affect reported profit.
  • LVGI (leverage index): 1.5620 — measures change in leverage; rising leverage can indicate balance-sheet pressure and is part of the M-Score pressure.
  • Earnings-Quality composite 26.9/100 with very low sub-scores: Accruals quality 15.9/100, Cash conversion 0.0/100, Margin quality 13.2/100, Revenue quality 8.1/100 — these quantify weak convertibility of reported profits into cash, weak margins and revenue reliability.
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9 — this score summarizes nine fundamental signals; a 2 indicates weak operating and financial-strength signals year-on-year.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.2% of total assets (40th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials): while not huge, the presence of prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside the normal trade cycle is a noteworthy item to inspect given the low cash-conversion score.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score 4.38 (safe zone) — this composite measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios; PTM is well inside the safe zone.
  • Receivables quality sub-score 100.0/100 — this metric indicates receivables themselves look clean by the scoring rules used here.
  • No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — the balance sheet shows retained earnings are not negative and equity is positive.
  • Director-deal registrations: 10 purchase registrations, 0 sale registrations, net registered volume +6.90% of shares outstanding — the disclosed registrations (not executed trades) show insider/related parties registering net purchases over the past year, which is a contemporaneous behavioral signal to record (registrations can repeat for the same holder).
Ownership Risk

HAX (Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Ô tô Hàng Xanh) holds 52.1% (control, disclosed 2026-06-30), with three individuals holding a further material block (11.3%, 9.4%, 6.2%, 6.0%). The shareholder base is therefore concentrated with a controlling listed parent (HAX) and several significant individual holders.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) and schedule(s) for prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables to confirm the 1.2% of total assets labeled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile the components of total accruals in the cash-flow and balance-sheet reconciliation to verify the TATA = 0.2810 figure (total accruals / total assets) and inspect what contributed most to accruals.
  • Inspect the cash-flow statement and the operating cash conversion note for FY2025 to verify the Cash conversion = 0.0/100 result and to see timing differences between profit and cash receipts/payments.
  • Review related-party disclosure notes and the schedule of transactions with controlling shareholder HAX to understand the nature and terms of any intercompany balances or transactions given the 52.1% controlling stake.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
4.38
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.93
Positive
Composite
44
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden−32.35×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover1.95×Leverage1.42=ROE7.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
+553.0%
Volatility
123.3%
Max Drawdown
−69.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
13.73P/E
P/B
1.05
P/S
0.38
ROE
7.7%
ROA
5.8%
EPS
1.020
BVPS
13.362
Gross Margin
12.8%
Net Margin
2.8%
D/E
0.30
Current Ratio
2.15
Rev Growth
−7.8%
Profit Growth
−72.0%
EV/EBITDA
19.99
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
35.2M
Charter Capital
352B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Industry (ICB L3)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Sub-industry
Sản xuất ô tô
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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