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Công ty Cổ phần Thiết kế - Xây dựng - Thương mại Phúc Thịnh

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuHNXCT
9.100
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close near calibrated value
−3.7%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
9.100
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.765

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • Trading liquidity is low.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
47.9%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

−4.2percentage points
Construction12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−11.7+5.7
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→14.88B
Fair EV/EBITDA→5.3x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.100
Calibrated value vs last close→−3.7%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.765
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA14.9 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·640157191224136135248279209214127101120··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·167251110151440761637131816··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·38470808566451119211765274832··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·2712213593125291··
Net Inventories
·5535701004646668518104641957··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·5535701004646668518104641957··
Other current assets
·342629289313125587221714··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000023··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4447495454617075793936248··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000000.030.540.900··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000000.030.540.900··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·0.50.8122578613133133··
Tangible fixed assets
·0.50.8122577562931133··
Intagible fixed assets
·000.000.010.070.20.20.35220416,659··
Investment in properties
·373941434547495100000··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·6667781012150000··
Investments in associate companies
·6667781012150000··
Other non-current assets
·0.30.40.420.3134342115··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.30.40.420.313434245··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·684204240278191197318354288253162125127··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·513183185222131136255290222180936294··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·469167183213130135244263221180936294··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·16992967615657465124402200··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·051.017549750.173110··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·4416290.60.411270.60.000.070.090.08··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4316190.3002700000··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·171215556606163646773695829··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·171215556606163646773695829··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·200503232323232323232323210··
Difference upon Assets Revaluation
·00000000000.400··
Foreign Currency Difference reserve
·0.70.70.60.60.50.50.50.60.50.500.090.06··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.70.777665554300··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−30−314599891220181316··
Minority Interest
·0000000000044··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·684204240278191197318354288253162125127··
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00091098000000··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·200503232323232323232323210··
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·0.040.040.040.030.0635555500··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
11
Poor
Accrual Quality
42
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 0.45 · 95th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +3.63
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.654
GMI
0.667
AQI
0.283
SGI
2.069
DEPI
0.920
SGAI
0.411
TATA
0.166
LVGI
0.835

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.3%18th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.15×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows a high Beneish M‑Score of 0.4526 (95th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a notable year‑over‑year rise of +3.63, driven chiefly by a very high DSRI (2.6535) and a large SGI (2.0694). At the same time, several Beneish components (GMI 0.6667, AQI 0.2833, DEPI 0.9204, SGAI 0.4111, LVGI 0.8345) point to improving margins, lower asset‑quality redirection, slightly faster depreciation and reduced leverage; the Altman Z‑Score is 1.20 (distress zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 5/9 (neutral). Earnings‑quality sub-scores are weak overall (10.6/100), with particularly poor cash conversion, receivables and revenue quality (0.0/100 each).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score 0.4526 (95th percentile vs VN peers): the M‑Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals relative to a model of financial ratios; being at the 95th percentile means this company is more aggressive on these signals than 95% of Vietnamese peers.
  • Year‑over‑year M‑Score change +3.63: this measures how the pattern of the Beneish ratios moved year to year; a large positive change is a signal that accounting behavior has shifted materially (consecutive‑year M‑Scores have low persistence, so change itself is an important cue).
  • DSRI 2.6535: the Days' Sales Receivables Index measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a DSRI well above 1 suggests receivables have grown faster than sales and can indicate revenue recognition or collectability concerns.
  • TATA 0.1660: Total Accruals to Total Assets of 16.6% indicates material accruals relative to the asset base; high accruals can reduce earnings quality when cash conversion is weak.
  • Earnings‑Quality Score 10.6/100 with Cash conversion 0/100, Receivables quality 0/100, Revenue quality 0/100 and Margin quality 0/100: these scores measure cash vs reported earnings, the realism of receivables, the sustainability of revenues and margins; values at or near zero are a concern for underlying cash and revenue quality.
  • Altman Z‑Score 1.20 (distress zone): this score measures distance to bankruptcy using balance‑sheet and income variables; 1.20 places the company in the distressed category by the model's thresholds.
Positive Signals
  • GMI 0.6667: the Gross Margin Index (<1) measures whether gross margins improved year‑on‑year; a value below 1 suggests gross margins have improved rather than deteriorated.
  • AQI 0.2833: the Asset Quality Index (<1) measures the shift toward higher‑risk assets (capitalized costs, intangibles, long‑term assets); a low AQI here indicates no increase in ‘risky’ asset capitalization relative to peers.
  • DEPI 0.9204: Depreciation Index (<1) indicates an increase in depreciation rate (accelerated depreciation) rather than slowing depreciation, which can be a conservative signal on asset write‑down timing.
  • SGAI 0.4111 and LVGI 0.8345: SGA expenses have grown more slowly than sales (SGAI <1) and leverage has decreased (LVGI <1), signals that operating expense growth and indebtedness are not rising.
  • Piotroski F‑Score 5/9 (neutral fundamentals): the F‑Score aggregates profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operational efficiency signals; a mid‑range score indicates neither strong deterioration nor clear strength in the accounting fundamentals.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty TNHH Hoàng Cát Tường holds 75.0% (institutional control), with three individual shareholders at 10.0%, 5.0% and 4.8% and a small 0.3% holder. Director‑deal registrations (7 sale registrations for 1,550,200 shares and 2 purchase registrations) are filings of intent rather than completed trades; the combination of a dominant 75% holder and multiple insider sale registrations is a governance signal to note in context.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year‑end and quarterly notes to trade and non‑trade receivables: reconcile the receivables aging and the line items that comprise the 0.3% of total assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long‑term receivables).
  • Reconcile total accruals: inspect the cash flow statement vs. profit reconciliation and the line(s) used to compute TATA (total accruals to total assets) to see which accrual components (inventory, provisions, payables, deferred revenue) drive the 0.1660 figure.
  • Review revenue recognition and related‑party notes: check the revenue note, contracts schedule and related‑party transaction disclosures for unusual timing, large year‑end sales, or receivables from related parties that could explain DSRI = 2.6535 and Revenue quality = 0/100.
  • Inspect depreciation and fixed‑asset accounting policies and schedules: verify useful lives and accumulated depreciation to validate DEPI = 0.9204 (depreciation index) and to see if accelerated depreciation or re‑estimates occurred.
  • Check director‑deal registration filings and the insider/large‑holder table: verify the dates, volumes (including the one sale registration without a declared volume), and counterparty identities in the exchange disclosure to match the 7 sales / 2 purchases registrations reported.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.20
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.32
Positive
Composite
11
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden0.50×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover0.76×Leverage3.99=ROE1.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
+22.0%
Volatility
101.2%
Max Drawdown
−64.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
112.01P/E
P/B
1.07
P/S
0.36
ROE
1.7%
ROA
0.4%
EPS
82
BVPS
8.570
Gross Margin
9.9%
Net Margin
0.3%
D/E
1.24
Current Ratio
1.36
Rev Growth
+106.9%
Profit Growth
+105.4%
EV/EBITDA
15.40
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
20.0M
Charter Capital
200B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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