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Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Phân phối Tổng hợp Dầu khí

VietnamConsumerBán lẻHNXCT
12.800
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+26.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
12.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
16.228

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Bán lẻ” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.864
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.90%
Ke
10.90%
x
E/(D+E)
26.38%
+
Kd(1-t)
2.50%
x
D/(D+E)
73.62%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→399.63B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→12.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+26.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
16.228
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow399.6 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
8.0%17.45117.45117.45117.45117.451
9.0%17.45117.45117.45117.45117.451
10.0%17.45117.45117.45117.45117.451
11.0%16.22816.22816.40717.45117.451
12.0%16.22816.22816.22816.22816.228
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4,6022,7253,0373,3442,5032,4031,9332,1662,4442,5912,3562,5713,349
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·22910463729911,0812295158021,066681831988
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1,7941,27193060238102151624212700
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1,4757231,0321,052868866847842983779661692692
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·230.98110520.31351711
Net Inventories
·9655268641,4295753497945864425247838411,424
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·9755358731,4425893648076004565388068661,446
Other current assets
·13910114818831448206194201203207245
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000010.50.4
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·70668087841720232630548
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·10.0413333333100
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·10.0413333332100
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·686573767023445321
Tangible fixed assets
·1381314713445321
Intagible fixed assets
·56586062630.40.10.20.30.10.20.040.07
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000000000.9001
Investments in associate companies
·000000000.90.9000
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·1111111111111
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−1−1−1−1−1−1−1−1−2−1−1−10
Other non-current assets
·00681012141720210.325
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0000.10.70.70.41220.30.73
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4,6722,7903,1173,4312,5872,4201,9532,1892,4702,6212,3612,5753,356
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·3,9552,2142,5702,9202,1572,0701,6141,8742,1772,3752,1292,3563,161
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3,9542,2122,5672,9192,1552,0691,6131,8742,1772,3742,1292,3553,160
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·2,5721,5381,5271,6208181,3578631,2261,4731,6381,5351,8072,478
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·263431386576574
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·223120.90.30.20.610.20.50.4
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0000000001000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·717576547511430351340315293246232219196
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·717576547511430351340315293246232219196
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·518518518399307307307256213213213142142
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0000000000055
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·19858291131374217527026193915
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·4,6722,7903,1173,4312,5872,4201,9532,1892,4702,6212,3612,5753,356
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·518518518399307307307256213213213142142
Good will (Bn. VND)
·0068101113151719000
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·0.010.010.05−1−96168117000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
18
Poor
Accrual Quality
52
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
30
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.91 · 88th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.96
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.487
GMI
1.082
AQI
1.000
SGI
1.372
DEPI
2.243
SGAI
0.881
TATA
0.129
LVGI
1.068

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.0045th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.1%7th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.9131 (88th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.96, indicating accounting measures that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved notably this year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 17.6/100) driven by zero scores on cash-conversion, receivables quality and revenue quality, while the Altman Z-Score is 2.29 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -0.9131 (88th percentile vs Vietnam peers; YoY change +2.96). The M-Score combines several ratios to screen for earnings manipulation risk; the company ranks high versus local peers and the score has increased materially year-over-year.
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivables Index) = 1.4873. A DSRI >1 suggests receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) are growing faster than sales, which can indicate more aggressive revenue recognition or slower collections.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 2.2428. DEPI >1 implies depreciation expense has fallen relative to prior period implied depreciation, which can indicate changes in useful lives, depreciation methods, revaluations, or other accounting choices that defer expense.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1288. Positive TATA indicates accruals contributed to reported profit; higher accruals versus assets reduce cash-basis earnings quality.
  • Earnings Quality overall = 17.6/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These component scores signal low conversion of reported profits into sustainable cash and weak revenue/receivables quality metrics in the scoring model used.
Positive Signals
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.0000. AQI =1 indicates no change in non-current asset reclassification or relative asset composition by this measure.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.3716 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.0820. The company shows revenue growth (SGI>1) and a modest change in gross margin (GMI>1), which are inputs to the M‑Score but here indicate expansion rather than contraction in scale.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0676. A modest increase in leverage is present but not extreme by this index.
  • Tangible balance-sheet facts: receivables outside the trade cycle are very small at 0.1% of total assets (7th percentile vs Vietnamese non-financials), accumulated losses = none, owner's equity (ex‑minority interest) positive, and zero years of parent-net-loss up to FY2025.
Ownership Risk

The shareholder register shows high concentration: PET (Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Tổng hợp Dầu khí) holds 73.8% (control, disclosed 2026-07-27). Insider/director-deal registrations from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show one sale registration (160,000 shares) and seven purchase registrations (1,600,000 shares) for a net registered volume of +2.05% of shares outstanding; these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare operating cash flow to net profit in the consolidated cash-flow statement and the notes — reconcile the three-year cash-conversion ratio (reported 1.00) to cash flows and major non-cash items.
  • Inspect the receivables, loans receivable and prepayments notes — verify the composition that produces receivables-outside-trade-cycle = 0.1% of total assets and check related-party schedules for material balances.
  • Review the fixed-asset and depreciation notes and policies to explain DEPI = 2.2428 (changes in useful lives, disposal/revaluation, componentisation or method changes).
  • Examine the related-party transactions and shareholder group disclosures (PET and its affiliates) for intra-group sales, advances or guarantees that could affect revenue recognition, receivables and cash flows.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.29
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.53
Positive
Composite
74
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.02×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover1.67×Leverage6.52=ROE20.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
+8.6%
Volatility
44.7%
Max Drawdown
−22.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.77P/E
P/B
1.35
P/S
0.12
ROE
22.1%
ROA
3.8%
EPS
2.761
BVPS
13.827
Gross Margin
5.2%
Net Margin
1.8%
D/E
3.59
Current Ratio
1.16
Rev Growth
+37.5%
Profit Growth
+73.2%
EV/EBITDA
13.31
Div Yield
5.3%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
70.2M
Charter Capital
702B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Bán lẻ
Sub-industry
Phân phối hàng chuyên dụng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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