Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 12.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 16.228
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0045th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%7th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.9131 (88th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.96, indicating accounting measures that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved notably this year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 17.6/100) driven by zero scores on cash-conversion, receivables quality and revenue quality, while the Altman Z-Score is 2.29 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.9131 (88th percentile vs Vietnam peers; YoY change +2.96). The M-Score combines several ratios to screen for earnings manipulation risk; the company ranks high versus local peers and the score has increased materially year-over-year.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivables Index) = 1.4873. A DSRI >1 suggests receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) are growing faster than sales, which can indicate more aggressive revenue recognition or slower collections.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 2.2428. DEPI >1 implies depreciation expense has fallen relative to prior period implied depreciation, which can indicate changes in useful lives, depreciation methods, revaluations, or other accounting choices that defer expense.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1288. Positive TATA indicates accruals contributed to reported profit; higher accruals versus assets reduce cash-basis earnings quality.
- Earnings Quality overall = 17.6/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These component scores signal low conversion of reported profits into sustainable cash and weak revenue/receivables quality metrics in the scoring model used.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.0000. AQI =1 indicates no change in non-current asset reclassification or relative asset composition by this measure.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.3716 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.0820. The company shows revenue growth (SGI>1) and a modest change in gross margin (GMI>1), which are inputs to the M‑Score but here indicate expansion rather than contraction in scale.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0676. A modest increase in leverage is present but not extreme by this index.
- Tangible balance-sheet facts: receivables outside the trade cycle are very small at 0.1% of total assets (7th percentile vs Vietnamese non-financials), accumulated losses = none, owner's equity (ex‑minority interest) positive, and zero years of parent-net-loss up to FY2025.
The shareholder register shows high concentration: PET (Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Tổng hợp Dầu khí) holds 73.8% (control, disclosed 2026-07-27). Insider/director-deal registrations from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show one sale registration (160,000 shares) and seven purchase registrations (1,600,000 shares) for a net registered volume of +2.05% of shares outstanding; these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare operating cash flow to net profit in the consolidated cash-flow statement and the notes — reconcile the three-year cash-conversion ratio (reported 1.00) to cash flows and major non-cash items.
- Inspect the receivables, loans receivable and prepayments notes — verify the composition that produces receivables-outside-trade-cycle = 0.1% of total assets and check related-party schedules for material balances.
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation notes and policies to explain DEPI = 2.2428 (changes in useful lives, disposal/revaluation, componentisation or method changes).
- Examine the related-party transactions and shareholder group disclosures (PET and its affiliates) for intra-group sales, advances or guarantees that could affect revenue recognition, receivables and cash flows.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.35
- P/S
- 0.12
- ROE
- 22.1%
- ROA
- 3.8%
- EPS
- 2.761
- BVPS
- 13.827
- Gross Margin
- 5.2%
- Net Margin
- 1.8%
- D/E
- 3.59
- Current Ratio
- 1.16
- Rev Growth
- +37.5%
- Profit Growth
- +73.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 13.31
- Div Yield
- 5.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 70.2M
- Charter Capital
- 702B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bán lẻ
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bán lẻ
- Sub-industry
- Phân phối hàng chuyên dụng
- Company Type
- CT