Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 18.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 22.116
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.9374th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%17th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.4471 (80th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of -2.20; using the Vietnam peer ranking and the YoY move is more informative than the US -1.78 cutoff because that cutoff is US-calibrated. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 77.5/100 with perfect scores on accruals, cash conversion and receivables (100/100 each) but weak revenue quality (0/100) and middling margin quality (50/100). Solvency and fundamentals show distance from distress (Altman Z-Score 3.69, Piotroski F-Score 6/9).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.4471, Vietnam peer percentile = 80th: the score sits above the US -1.78 threshold but, as noted, that cutoff is US-calibrated; the company ranks in the top 20% for aggressive accounting signals among Vietnamese peers.
- Year-over-year M-Score change = -2.20: a substantial annual move in the M-Score trajectory (the model’s consecutive-year correlation is low), which can indicate a change in accounting behavior even if one score alone is not dispositive.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000: this component measures increases in asset reclassifications and new long-lived assets relative to prior periods; such a high AQI is an outlier and signals substantive asset-quality shifts to inspect.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.3214: SGA expense growth outpaced sales (SGAI > 1), which can reflect margin pressure or cost recognition timing differences impacting profits.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100: the earnings-quality subscore flags revenue as the weakest element — verify recognition policies and any one-off or non-recurring revenue lines.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100: accruals appear high-quality by the scoring metrics, suggesting reported profit is not being materially inflated via accruals.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.93, 74th percentile: while the percentile shows room relative to peers, the raw ratio >1 indicates operating cash generation has covered reported profit over the 3-year window.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.3% of total assets (17th percentile): low levels of non-trade receivables/prepayments/loans receivable versus assets reduce concern about off-cycle receivables growth.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.3688 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0624: the negative TATA indicates low or reversing accrual buildup in the latest period, and modest leverage change (LVGI ~1.06) suggests leverage is not spiking.
The share register is heavily concentrated in state-controlled institutional owners: Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Cảng Bến Nghé holds 45.1% and Công ty TNHH MTV Tổng Công ty Tân Cảng Sài Gòn holds 36.1%, with an additional 6.5% owned by a group-related company (Container Saigon). Two individuals are shown at 0.0%. This concentrated, group/state-linked ownership can affect related-party transactions, intra-group balances and disclosure incentives.
- Compare the year‑over‑year change that drives AQI = 10.0000 with the note(s) on fixed assets, reclassifications and impairment in the audited FY2025 financial statements.
- Reconcile revenue lines and the revenue-recognition policy with the Revenue Quality score (0/100): examine revenue schedules, contract notes and any one-off sales or related-party revenue disclosed in FY2025.
- Match the components behind cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.93) to the consolidated cash-flow statement and the notes to receivables/payables to confirm timing differences or non-cash items.
- Review related-party balances, prepayments and loans in the notes (the receivables-outside-trade-cycle measure = 0.3% of assets) to confirm classification and counterparty details given the dominant state/group shareholders.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.23
- P/S
- 0.83
- ROE
- 18.4%
- ROA
- 12.2%
- EPS
- 2.670
- BVPS
- 14.659
- Gross Margin
- 25.8%
- Net Margin
- 12.2%
- D/E
- 0.18
- Current Ratio
- 2.11
- Rev Growth
- −1.1%
- Profit Growth
- +2.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.82
- Div Yield
- 8.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 16.1M
- Charter Capital
- 161B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Vận tải Thủy
- Company Type
- CT