Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.135
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 4.3489th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 39.2%97th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple signals of aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 1.6464 (97th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +4.36, driven by a high DSRI (2.2668) and AQI (10.0000). At the same time, accruals and cash-conversion measures score strongly (accruals quality 100/100; cash conversion 100/100) while other earnings-quality components (receivables quality 0/100; margin quality 6.4/100; revenue quality 21.9/100) and an Altman Z-Score of 1.72 (distress zone) point to mixed financial health and collection/prepayment concentration.
- Beneish M-Score = 1.6464 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals); this is at the 97th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and increased by +4.36 year-over-year.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 2.2668 (measures acceleration of receivables relative to sales), indicating receivables and revenue timing differences.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000 (measures shifts into non-current or less-liquid assets that can hide expenses), an unusually high value.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 39.2% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside normal trade), at the 97th percentile versus Vietnamese non-financial companies.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 4.34 (measures how much reported profit converts to cash), at the 89th percentile for Vietnam (high value here indicates profit is not turning into operating cash).
- Margin quality = 6.4/100 and Revenue quality = 21.9/100 (measure persistence and cash/earnings consistency of margins and revenue), both very low, suggesting earnings and top-line are of low quality.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.72 (measures distance to bankruptcy; this is in the 'distress' zone, indicating financial stress on the metrics embedded in the Z-Score).
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures proportion of earnings explained by accruals vs cash; a high score indicates earnings are not driven by accruals).
- Cash conversion score = 100.0/100 (aside from the 3-year aggregate metric above, the earnings-quality component rates the firm highly on short-term cash vs earnings consistency).
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (measures fundamentals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency; 6 is a neutral-to-favorable score).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.5720 (measures sales growth; a value below 1 indicates declining sales growth pressure on the manipulation model) and SGAI = 0.8693 (measures increase in selling, general & admin expense relative to sales), neither are extreme in the direction typically associated with aggressive upward earnings manipulation.
Ownership is highly concentrated among individuals: Huỳnh Văn Quảng 24.8%, Vũ Thị Loan 19.4%, Nguyễn Văn Út 9.2%, plus other sizeable individual holders (6.9% and 6.5%). Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 2 sale registrations and 12 purchase registrations (these are intentions registered with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the line items that constitute 'receivables and other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet to the related-party and loans/advances notes to quantify the 39.2% of total assets classified outside the normal trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the profit & loss to verify the 3-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 4.34) and identify the drivers of low cash conversion into operating cash.
- Inspect the composition of 'asset quality' movements in the notes (additions to long-term receivables, prepayments, intangible or other non-current assets) to see what produces the AQI = 10.0000 and DEPI = 1.2293 (depreciation index).
- Review the revenue recognition policy note and the schedule of receivables aging to assess the high DSRI = 2.2668 and the revenue-quality score (21.9/100), focusing on timing of sales, returns, rebates and any related-party revenue.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.51
- P/S
- 0.44
- ROE
- 1.7%
- ROA
- 1.0%
- EPS
- 199
- BVPS
- 11.587
- Gross Margin
- 3.6%
- Net Margin
- 1.5%
- D/E
- 0.45
- Current Ratio
- 1.78
- Rev Growth
- −42.8%
- Profit Growth
- +149.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 19.09
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 9.5M
- Charter Capital
- 94.6B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Nhựa, cao su & sợi
- Company Type
- CT