Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 12.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 12.869
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 7 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.5%23rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -2.0586 (64th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.68, indicating accounting measures have moved toward more aggressive relative to peers even though the absolute M-Score is below the US -1.78 cutoff. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: an overall score 67.5/100 with perfect accruals quality (100/100) and strong cash conversion (83.8/100) but weak margin quality (0/100) and middling receivables quality (57.2/100). The Altman Z-Score is 3.86 (in the safe/bankruptcy-distance zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -2.0586 with Vietnam peer percentile 64th: the M-Score moved +2.68 year-over-year, which signals a notable change in the pattern of the eight variables Beneish uses (DSRI, GMI, AQI, SGI, DEPI, SGAI, LVGI, TATA).
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.0821: receivables are rising faster than sales, which can indicate collection pressure or timing differences in revenue recognition relative to the prior year.
- Gross Margin Index (GMI) = 1.1376 and Margin Quality = 0.0/100: gross margins have deteriorated year-over-year (GMI > 1 means gross margin fell), and the margin-quality component scores very poorly, suggesting profitability per sale has weakened.
- Leverage/Volume Growth Index (LVGI) = 1.1027 and Sales Growth Index (SGI) = 1.2590: the company is growing sales (SGI > 1) while leverage/volume measures also rose, which in combination with falling margins can pressure cash generation.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.5% of total assets (23rd percentile vs VN non-financials): although small in absolute terms, this is an item to monitor because it includes prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables that sit outside ordinary trade receivables.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100: accrual-based distortions appear low according to the accruals component of the earnings-quality score.
- Cash conversion = 83.8/100: the company converts reported earnings into cash reasonably well relative to peers.
- Total Accruals to Total Assets (TATA) = -0.0009: near zero TATA supports the high accruals-quality score (low net accruals relative to assets).
- Altman Z-Score = 3.86: the firm is in the safe zone on the Altman bankruptcy-distance metric, suggesting distance from financial distress under that model.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9: fundamentals are neutral-to-favorable on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests captured by Piotroski.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Cao Thanh Trường holds 49.0% and the next largest holder is 11.8%, with three other individuals holding 5.0%, 5.0% and 3.3%. Director-deal disclosures for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 0 sale registrations and 2 purchase registrations (2 traders; both without volume), where registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange rather than executed trades.
- Compare the schedule/note for trade receivables with the related-party note and the line items for prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables to reconcile the 0.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the consolidated statement of profit or loss and the notes on gross margin drivers to understand the components behind GMI = 1.1376 and the Margin Quality = 0.0/100 (e.g., cost of goods sold movements, one-off items, product mix changes).
- Examine the cash-flow statement and the cash-flow from operating activities reconciliation to validate the Cash Conversion (83.8/100) and the near-zero TATA (−0.0009) implied by low accruals.
- Inspect the related‑party transactions note and any schedule of group/company loans or guarantees to check whether growth (SGI = 1.2590) and increases in leverage/volume (LVGI = 1.1027) are accompanied by intra-group funding or off-cycle receivables.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.19
- P/S
- 0.50
- ROE
- 3.8%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- EPS
- 401
- BVPS
- 10.690
- Gross Margin
- 16.7%
- Net Margin
- 1.6%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 2.35
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.20
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.0M
- Charter Capital
- 40.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT