Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.748
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 12 Jul 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −9.933rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 59.3%99th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.85×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The forensic indicators point to materially aggressive accounting signals: a Beneish M-Score of 5.2758 (99th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) driven by a very high DSRI (6.2199) and large SGAI (2.1640), and an Earnings-Quality score of 0/100 across all subcomponents. Financial distress measures are weak: an Altman Z-Score of 0.39 (distress zone) while operational cash conversion over three years is -9.93 (3rd percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = 5.2758 (99th percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The M-Score is a composite that screens for earnings manipulation risk; against Vietnamese peers this score is extremely high (note the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferable).
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 6.2199. DSRI measures changes in receivables relative to sales — a very large reading indicates receivables (or revenue recognition patterns) have grown much faster than reported sales.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative index) = 2.1640. SGAI measures changes in operating expenses relative to sales — this elevated value suggests operating expense behavior that departs from peers or past trends.
- AQI and DEPI = 1.0000 each. AQI (asset quality index) = 1.0000 flags changes in the composition of assets (growth in non-current/other assets such as prepayments, loans receivable or capitalised costs). DEPI (depreciation index) = 1.0000 indicates changes in depreciation policy or estimates that affect reported profit.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.8068. TATA measures accruals intensity; a high positive number indicates profits are being supported by accruals rather than cash.
- Earnings-Quality Score = 0.0/100 with Accruals quality 0.0/100, Cash conversion 0.0/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100. These component scores indicate extremely poor measured earnings quality by the chosen framework.
- Altman Z-Score = 0.39 (distress zone). The Z-Score estimates bankruptcy distance; 0.39 places the company in the distress range used by the model.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -9.93 (3rd percentile). This shows reported profits have not converted into operating cash flow over the last three years.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 59.3% of total assets (99th percentile). A very large share of assets are ‘non-trade’ receivables (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables), which increases reliance on related-party balances or non-core claims.
- Accumulated losses = 0.85 × paid-in capital. The balance sheet shows retained losses amounting to 85% of paid-in capital, a material accumulated loss position.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9. The Piotroski score is neutral (neither strongly healthy nor strongly weak) on nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.7908 (below 1). SGI < 1 indicates reported sales have not accelerated relative to the prior year, which reduces one common motive for aggressive revenue recognition tied to rapid growth.
- LVGI (Leverage/Volume/Goodwill index) = 0.9497 (near 1). LVGI close to 1 suggests no extreme change in leverage or goodwill write-offs in the M-Score components.
Ownership is highly concentrated in a small group of individuals: three shareholders hold 23.2%, 21.8% and 20.3% respectively, and the top five together control ~82% (top five: 23.2%, 21.8%, 20.3%, 8.9%, 7.9%). Director-deal disclosures show 1 sale registration and 4 purchase registrations (436,200 shares total, with most registrations without specified volumes) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 schedule or note that discloses 'receivables and prepayments' to the balance-sheet line for total assets to verify the 59.3% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparty types (related parties, suppliers, employees).
- Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flows) and the income-statement net profit for the last three years to reproduce the cash-conversion ratio of -9.93 and trace major reconciling items (non-cash accruals, changes in working capital, one-offs).
- Review the related-party transactions note for loans receivable, advances to suppliers, guarantees or other off-cycle claims to assess the composition behind the high DSRI (6.2199) and AQI = 1.0000.
- Inspect the equity/retained-earnings line and the auditor’s report/notes to confirm accumulated losses equal 0.85× paid-in capital and to see whether any statutory or disclosure items reference the company’s listing status (note: the statutory loss test for HOSE/HNX delisting does not apply on UPCoM).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 11.33
- P/S
- 1.45
- ROE
- 183.5%
- ROA
- 10.9%
- EPS
- 507
- BVPS
- 530
- Gross Margin
- 21.6%
- Net Margin
- 12.3%
- D/E
- 13.24
- Current Ratio
- 1.05
- EV/EBITDA
- 15.57
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.5M
- Charter Capital
- 55.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Du lịch và Giải trí
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Du lịch & Giải trí
- Sub-industry
- Dịch vụ giải trí
- Company Type
- CT