Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.081
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.8%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Real Estate peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 43.9%98th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple conflicting signals: a very high Beneish M-Score of 6.4417 (99th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +10.73) — which flags aggressive accounting metrics relative to peers — alongside strong operational/fundamental scores (Piotroski F-Score 8/9) and solid earnings-quality sub-scores for accruals, cash conversion and receivables (all 100/100). At the same time the Altman Z-Score is 0.67 (in the distress zone), revenue- and margin-quality are scored 0/100, and several balance-sheet items (receivables outside the trade cycle = 43.9% of assets, 98th percentile) are unusually large.
- Beneish M-Score 6.4417: the M-Score is designed to detect earnings manipulation by combining eight ratios; this company’s score is far above the US −1.78 threshold and sits at the 99th percentile against Vietnamese peers, indicating anomalously aggressive accounting metrics relative to the local universe.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +10.73: the M-Score increased sharply year-over-year, showing a material trajectory change in the underlying ratios (consecutive-year M-Scores have low correlation, so the jump is a notable secondary cue).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 10.0000: SGI measures the rate of sales growth relative to the prior year; a value of 10 indicates very large reported revenue growth, which can stress other accounting areas and is consistent with the 0/100 Revenue quality score.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 4.3755: GMI > 1 measures deterioration in gross margin; at 4.3755 it indicates materially worse gross margins versus the prior period (GMI compares gross margin current/previous).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0852: LVGI > 1 measures rising leverage (the ratio of debt to assets has increased versus prior year), a balance-sheet pressure point.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 43.9% of total assets (98th percentile): this line combines prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; such a large share of assets outside usual trade receivables is a clear area for further verification.
- Revenue quality = 0/100 and Margin quality = 0/100: the Earnings-Quality sub-scores report zero for both revenue and margin quality, which aligns with the very high SGI and high GMI and implies the quality of reported top-line and margins is weak by the applied assessments.
- Altman Z-Score = 0.67 (distress zone): the Z-Score is low, indicating limited distance to bankruptcy risk using the Altman model inputs.
- Director-deal registrations: 9 sale registrations disclosed 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 (1 trader; 9 without a volume) and 0 purchase registrations — these are registered intentions to trade filed with the exchange (not executed trades) and are concentrated on the sell side over the last year.
- Piotroski F-Score = 8/9: the Piotroski score (which combines profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals) is high, indicating many fundamental performance signals are favorable in the applied scoring.
- Earnings-Quality overall = 70/100 with sub-scores: Accruals quality 100/100, Cash conversion 100/100, Receivables quality 100/100: these indicate that, by the applied metrics, reported accruals, operating cash conversion and the face-level trade receivables quality show no immediate red flags.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = -0.0192: TATA close to zero and slightly negative indicates small net accruals relative to assets in the accounting period used by this metric (TATA measures the extent to which earnings are explained by accruals rather than cash).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.6937: AQI < 1 (AQI compares non-current assets other than PPE to total assets across periods) suggests no increase in asset-quality risk by this index (it implies a relative improvement or lower noncurrent asset capitalization versus prior period).
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9326: DEPI < 1 signals a higher depreciation charge rate (or lower implied useful lives) versus prior year rather than aggressive capitalization of depreciation, which can be a conservative indicator on fixed-asset accounting.
Top shareholders are individuals and small institutions (largest: Nguyễn Lượng Khoa Toàn 8.2%; Pixi 4.9%; Sanei 4.9%; Lê Tiến Dũng 4.3%; Lê Thống Nhất 2.9%). No single dominant state or strategic controlling shareholder is reported in the top five, and director-deal registrations over the last year are concentrated as sale registrations (9 sale registrations, 0 purchases), which are registrations of intent rather than executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) that detail 'prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables' with the balance-sheet line items that total the 43.9% of assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the revenue growth disclosed in the income statement and the SGI = 10.0000 with segment and sales-disaggregation notes (check whether organic sales, related-party sales or one-off contract recognition explain the spike).
- Inspect the depreciation and fixed-asset accounting policy note and the PPE reconciliation to confirm the components behind DEPI = 0.9326 (useful lives, additions, disposals and depreciation expense).
- Review the related-party transactions and loans receivable schedules for any concentration, maturity profile, collateral and allowance details in FY2025 filings to assess the composition of large non-trade receivables.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.42
- P/S
- 4.65
- ROE
- 0.9%
- ROA
- 0.5%
- EPS
- 95
- BVPS
- 10.982
- Gross Margin
- 20.1%
- Net Margin
- 7.3%
- D/E
- 0.24
- Current Ratio
- 1.36
- Rev Growth
- +2760.2%
- Profit Growth
- +125.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.97
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 92.6M
- Charter Capital
- 926B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT