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NRC

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Bất động sản Quốc gia

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHNXCT
4.600
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+32.2%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
4.600
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
6.081

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

  • A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
51.8%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.0percentage points
Real Estate12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Real Estate peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−2.6+12.9
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.893
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.02%
Ke
11.02%
x
E/(D+E)
76.56%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.07%
x
D/(D+E)
23.44%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→4.600
Calibrated value vs last close→+32.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
6.081
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%high risk: no
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow58.2 tỷone off strip ratio: 16.91

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
8.0%6.2036.2036.2036.2036.203
9.0%5.9915.9915.9916.0816.203
10.0%5.6165.6165.6165.6165.991
11.0%5.3665.6165.6165.6165.616
12.0%5.3665.3665.3665.3665.366
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·8663997199891,3425377403001307
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·20.50.91613432570.6
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00000096000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·8483877059151,2834994952061136
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.050.030.4524941871563110
Net Inventories
·14101261518956890
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·14101261518956890
Other current assets
·32211216130.92751,728
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,1041,5301,3651,28868123211520313026
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·8651,2951,02093543041308012126
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·8651,29583975043041308012126
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·676768697878666730
Tangible fixed assets
·98910192081030
Intagible fixed assets
·595959595958585800
Investment in properties
·666666666600000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·1031031021010003600
Investments in associate companies
·103103102101000000
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000003600
Other non-current assets
·30.040.1101717191940.01
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.20.040.10.611330.040.01
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,9701,9292,0832,2772,02376985650326032
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·8037737899958672914352981030.5
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·636565567748426118247831020.5
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·2443093515141074699270.40
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·322494496181,060360
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·16620822224644217318821510
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·4045486837431303510
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1,1681,1561,2941,2821,15647742120515732
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,1681,1561,2941,2821,15647742120515732
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·92692692688284230224012012030
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·121211111132000
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·504117921127013614381342
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,9701,9292,0832,2772,02376985650326032
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0535396000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·92692692688284230224012012030
Good will (Bn. VND)
·3000111220
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·151148148148366430

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
70
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 6.44 · 99th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +10.73
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.123
GMI
4.375
AQI
0.694
SGI
10.000
DEPI
0.933
SGAI
0.027
TATA
−0.019
LVGI
1.085

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
43.9%98th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows multiple conflicting signals: a very high Beneish M-Score of 6.4417 (99th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +10.73) — which flags aggressive accounting metrics relative to peers — alongside strong operational/fundamental scores (Piotroski F-Score 8/9) and solid earnings-quality sub-scores for accruals, cash conversion and receivables (all 100/100). At the same time the Altman Z-Score is 0.67 (in the distress zone), revenue- and margin-quality are scored 0/100, and several balance-sheet items (receivables outside the trade cycle = 43.9% of assets, 98th percentile) are unusually large.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 6.4417: the M-Score is designed to detect earnings manipulation by combining eight ratios; this company’s score is far above the US −1.78 threshold and sits at the 99th percentile against Vietnamese peers, indicating anomalously aggressive accounting metrics relative to the local universe.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change +10.73: the M-Score increased sharply year-over-year, showing a material trajectory change in the underlying ratios (consecutive-year M-Scores have low correlation, so the jump is a notable secondary cue).
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 10.0000: SGI measures the rate of sales growth relative to the prior year; a value of 10 indicates very large reported revenue growth, which can stress other accounting areas and is consistent with the 0/100 Revenue quality score.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 4.3755: GMI > 1 measures deterioration in gross margin; at 4.3755 it indicates materially worse gross margins versus the prior period (GMI compares gross margin current/previous).
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0852: LVGI > 1 measures rising leverage (the ratio of debt to assets has increased versus prior year), a balance-sheet pressure point.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 43.9% of total assets (98th percentile): this line combines prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; such a large share of assets outside usual trade receivables is a clear area for further verification.
  • Revenue quality = 0/100 and Margin quality = 0/100: the Earnings-Quality sub-scores report zero for both revenue and margin quality, which aligns with the very high SGI and high GMI and implies the quality of reported top-line and margins is weak by the applied assessments.
  • Altman Z-Score = 0.67 (distress zone): the Z-Score is low, indicating limited distance to bankruptcy risk using the Altman model inputs.
  • Director-deal registrations: 9 sale registrations disclosed 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 (1 trader; 9 without a volume) and 0 purchase registrations — these are registered intentions to trade filed with the exchange (not executed trades) and are concentrated on the sell side over the last year.
Positive Signals
  • Piotroski F-Score = 8/9: the Piotroski score (which combines profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals) is high, indicating many fundamental performance signals are favorable in the applied scoring.
  • Earnings-Quality overall = 70/100 with sub-scores: Accruals quality 100/100, Cash conversion 100/100, Receivables quality 100/100: these indicate that, by the applied metrics, reported accruals, operating cash conversion and the face-level trade receivables quality show no immediate red flags.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = -0.0192: TATA close to zero and slightly negative indicates small net accruals relative to assets in the accounting period used by this metric (TATA measures the extent to which earnings are explained by accruals rather than cash).
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.6937: AQI < 1 (AQI compares non-current assets other than PPE to total assets across periods) suggests no increase in asset-quality risk by this index (it implies a relative improvement or lower noncurrent asset capitalization versus prior period).
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9326: DEPI < 1 signals a higher depreciation charge rate (or lower implied useful lives) versus prior year rather than aggressive capitalization of depreciation, which can be a conservative indicator on fixed-asset accounting.
Ownership Risk

Top shareholders are individuals and small institutions (largest: Nguyễn Lượng Khoa Toàn 8.2%; Pixi 4.9%; Sanei 4.9%; Lê Tiến Dũng 4.3%; Lê Thống Nhất 2.9%). No single dominant state or strategic controlling shareholder is reported in the top five, and director-deal registrations over the last year are concentrated as sale registrations (9 sale registrations, 0 purchases), which are registrations of intent rather than executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) that detail 'prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables' with the balance-sheet line items that total the 43.9% of assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile the revenue growth disclosed in the income statement and the SGI = 10.0000 with segment and sales-disaggregation notes (check whether organic sales, related-party sales or one-off contract recognition explain the spike).
  • Inspect the depreciation and fixed-asset accounting policy note and the PPE reconciliation to confirm the components behind DEPI = 0.9326 (useful lives, additions, disposals and depreciation expense).
  • Review the related-party transactions and loans receivable schedules for any concentration, maturity profile, collateral and allowance details in FY2025 filings to assess the composition of large non-trade receivables.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
0.67
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.99
Negative
Composite
48
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.64×Interest Burden0.48×Op. Margin0.24×Turnover0.05×Leverage1.69=ROE0.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
−25.4%
Volatility
42.1%
Max Drawdown
−35.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
48.30P/E
P/B
0.42
P/S
4.65
ROE
0.9%
ROA
0.5%
EPS
95
BVPS
10.982
Gross Margin
20.1%
Net Margin
7.3%
D/E
0.24
Current Ratio
1.36
Rev Growth
+2760.2%
Profit Growth
+125.9%
EV/EBITDA
14.97
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
92.6M
Charter Capital
926B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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