NHH

Công ty Cổ phần Nhựa Hà Nội

VietnamCyclicalsHóa chấtHOSECT

9.460

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Close below calibrated value

+9.2%Calibrated value vs last close

−50%At last close+100%+500%

Last close (VND): 9.460
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 10.330

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

Trading liquidity is low.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Medium; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: 51.2%; 12 monthsHistorical calibration; Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+2.3percentage points

Cyclicals12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.

Not an absolute return forecast.
Not a price target.
A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.

Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

Sector calibration span · percentage points

−7.9+8.6

The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
Actual returns can fall outside it.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hóa chất” maps to the cyclical group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details

Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→247.23B

Fair EV/EBITDA→6.4x

Years of data→7

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.460

Calibrated value vs last close→+9.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

10.330

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA247.2 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

NHH among Cyclicals

Every stock in the sector, NHH marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is NHH. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	1,109	835	834	1,259	844	585	489	415	308	328	325
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	346	192	68	357	89	76	30	30	122	147	90
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	119	0.8	200	28	0	20	47	26	0	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	337	379	295	445	374	226	260	275	98	93	111
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	37	26	33	42	21	9	14	6	0.3	0.7	5
Net Inventories	·	239	219	231	367	332	209	111	77	76	82	115
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	242	220	233	371	336	211	112	78	76	82	115
Other current assets	·	67	45	40	62	48	54	42	7	12	5	9
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	1,421	1,095	1,243	1,128	1,053	1,117	662	112	141	152	139
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	4	5	5	9	6	2	0.9	0	0	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	4	5	5	6	6	2	0.9	0	0	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	890	829	799	837	884	855	397	94	127	134	123
Tangible fixed assets	·	852	765	723	707	747	754	346	90	127	134	123
Leased assets	·	33	57	69	123	130	92	42	0	0	0	0
Intagible fixed assets	·	5	7	7	6	7	9	9	4	0	0	0
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	58	117	299	123	0	81	104	0	0	0	0
Investments in associate companies	·	58	117	183	123	0	81	104	0	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	187	142	138	144	152	155	88	15	14	16	16
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	187	142	137	143	149	153	84	15	14	16	16
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	2,529	1,930	2,077	2,387	1,897	1,702	1,151	527	449	479	464
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	704	574	703	1,085	1,242	1,063	659	186	149	184	194
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	609	512	666	938	791	585	482	186	123	144	151
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	235	245	449	542	536	361	273	46	7	13	19
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	35	11	21	53	38	38	0.1	0.9	3	0.9	9
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	95	62	37	147	451	479	177	0	26	40	43
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	95	62	37	144	273	335	177	0	26	40	43
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	1,826	1,357	1,373	1,302	655	639	492	341	300	295	271
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	1,826	1,357	1,373	1,302	655	639	492	341	300	295	271
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	1,130	729	729	729	364	364	344	65	65	65	65
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	90	90	67	42
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.4	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	354	286	279	231	129	114	58	186	144	163	163
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	2,529	1,930	2,077	2,387	1,897	1,702	1,151	527	449	479	464
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	50	7	18	0	8	62	135	0	0	0
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	1,130	729	729	729	364	364	344	65	65	65	65
Good will (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0.2	1.0	2	3	3	0	0	0	0
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	0.9	0.8	24	0.2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.47 · 40th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.33

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.807

GMI

1.079

AQI

1.520

SGI

1.102

DEPI

0.998

SGAI

1.002

TATA

−0.037

LVGI

0.936

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 2.4881st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 1.6%45th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.67

Grey Zone

Sharpe

−0.84

Negative

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✗No Dilution

✗Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.74×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.07×Turnover0.91×Leverage1.39=ROE6.6%

Price Risk

Momentum

−11.5%

Volatility

25.2%

Max Drawdown

−28.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.98P/E

P/B: 0.59
P/S: 0.46
ROE: 7.5%
ROA: 5.4%
EPS: 1.058
BVPS: 16.153
Gross Margin: 17.3%
Net Margin: 5.2%
D/E: 0.18
Current Ratio: 1.82
Rev Growth: +10.2%
Profit Growth: +39.0%
EV/EBITDA: 3.35
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 113M
Charter Capital: 1,130B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3): Hóa chất
Sub-industry: Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for NHH. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Nhựa An Phát Xanh

AAA

68.6%

77.5M

2026-06-30

Lê Xuân Lương

Indiv

11.0%

12.4M

2026-10-12

Board & Management

Đỗ Thị Hương Giang

Member of Management Board/Deputy General Director/Chief Financial Officer/Spokesman

Lâm Thị Hiền

Deputy General Director

Top connections

HII68.6%VBC68.6%

Listed group

AAACông ty Cổ phần Nhựa An Phát Xanh
Parent: holds over 50%
68.6%
2026-06-30

Also held by AAA:HII VBC

Read from the shareholder lists: control above 50% of the shares (VAS 25), significant influence at 20% or more (VAS 07). Each date is that of the disclosure.

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: None
Purchase registrations: 2 by 1 trader; 2 without a stated volume

Lê Xuân Lương
Purchase · Insider
—
2026-10-12
Lê Xuân Lương
Purchase · Insider
—
2026-06-09

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Also note

12-month sector-relative outlook

Valuation Breakdown

NHH among Cyclicals

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Listed group

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Listed group

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

NHH among Cyclicals