NDW
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Nam Định
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 19.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 21.034
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 5 Sept 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 2.8784th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.4%69th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.0497 (96th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.78, indicating its accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially this year. Specific Beneish components show a very large DSRI (5.0988, suggesting sales/receivable timing or recognition differences) and elevated receivable-related signals (AQI 2.3248, LVGI 1.4046); at the same time, reported accruals and cash-conversion metrics look strong (TATA -0.1293 and cash-conversion sub-scores are high), while the earnings-quality composite scores flag very low receivables quality (0.0/100) and revenue quality (6.6/100) but strong accruals, cash conversion and margins. The Altman Z-Score is 2.84 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score 1.0497 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; higher indicates more aggressive accounting relative to peers). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not fully applicable in Vietnam; use the peer percentile and the YoY change (+2.78) as stronger cues.
- DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivable Index) = 5.0988. DSRI measures the change in receivables relative to sales; a value this large signals receivables growing far faster than sales or sales being recognized ahead of cash collection.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 6.6/100 in the earnings-quality composite. These scores measure the likelihood that revenues and receivables reflect sustainable, cash-backed business activity; both are very low for this company.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.3248. AQI measures the rise in non-current and potentially less-productive assets (e.g., capitalized costs, long-term receivables); an elevated AQI supports concern about capitalization or reclassification of items that can inflate profits.
- LVGI (Leverage Index variant) = 1.4046 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0233. These indicate rising leverage pressures and a small change in depreciation policy that could affect reported profit timing.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 2.87 (84th percentile among VN non-financials). This measures how much reported profit turns into cash; a value >1 means profit exceeds operating cash generation and is high versus peers (low cash conversion).
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100. This measures the extent of accrual-based adjustments; a perfect score indicates low abnormal accruals in the reported period.
- Cash conversion subscore = 100.0/100 (earnings-quality components) — despite the 3-year aggregated cash-conversion ratio noted above, the earnings-quality model flags recent accrual/cash relationships as clean.
- Margin quality = 100.0/100. This measures stability and plausibility of margins versus historical and peer patterns; the company scores strongly here.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.1293. TATA is a measure of accruals relative to assets; a negative value often indicates conservative recognition (accruals reducing reported earnings) rather than income-inflating accruals.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.9978 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9701. SGI near 1.0 indicates stable sales growth year on year; GMI <1 suggests gross margins have not deteriorated versus the prior year.
Reported shareholdings show dominant state ownership: Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Nam Định 49.5% and Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Ninh Bình 49.5%, indicating state/official control or influence is concentrated. Additional named shareholders include Công ty Cổ Phần Du Lịch Nam Định 18.5%, NTP 13.5% and Setfil 5.0%; these reported stakes as provided exceed 100% when summed, so please reconcile the exact holdings and any cross-holdings or group ownership in the company’s shareholder register and disclosures. No director-deal registrations were supplied in the data provided.
- Compare the year-end trade receivables and the 'other long-term receivables / loans to related parties' lines in the balance sheet and the notes to the receivables schedule to quantify the components behind the large DSRI and the 5.4% of assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile revenue recognition policies (note on revenue) with the sales/receivables ageing schedule: check the note that explains revenue cut-off and the ageing of receivables to see if there are recent changes in terms, factoring, or related-party timing.
- Inspect the note(s) describing 'other non-current assets' and capitalized costs to understand what drives AQI = 2.3248 (look for prepayments to suppliers, capitalized interest, or long-term deposits/advances to related parties).
- Review the statement of cash flows and the reconciliation of net profit to operating cash flow (the operating cash-flow-to-net-profit schedule and any cash conversion note) to see drivers of the 3-year cash conversion = 2.87 and to cross-check working-capital movements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.63
- P/S
- 2.40
- ROE
- 8.0%
- ROA
- 6.0%
- EPS
- 908
- BVPS
- 11.876
- Gross Margin
- 34.5%
- Net Margin
- 11.2%
- D/E
- 0.13
- Current Ratio
- 1.28
- Rev Growth
- −0.2%
- Profit Growth
- −7.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.50
- Div Yield
- 1.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 34.2M
- Charter Capital
- 342B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Nước
- Company Type
- CT