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Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Nam Định

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtNước & Khí đốtUPCOMCT
19.400
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+8.4%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
19.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
21.034

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The closing price is too old for comparison.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.227
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.48%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.50%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→860
Payout ratio→89.1%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→19.400
Calibrated value vs last close→+8.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
21.034
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share860dps source: eventspayout ratio: 89.09
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·130111106881031097478111756568
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·388379615793423329201316
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·13000001000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·571153205532151397
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·30710.41253277443
Net Inventories
·161621202010151365413739
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·191925242416161365413739
Other current assets
·70.80.447120.0020.266
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000065
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·432361376410397372429414223206213216
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·336326346384302349402383220203213214
Tangible fixed assets
·335326346384301349401382220203212213
Leased assets
·000000000000.5
Intagible fixed assets
·0.60.20.40.60.40.50.20.40000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·000001100000
Other non-current assets
·1817141213192628210.82
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1817141213192628210.82
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·563472482498500481503493335281278283
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·156104114128112106133132149117119132
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1025964746046558175606169
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·2141451116233730243429
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·2256843246614
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·544450545261785175575963
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·302024273243595175575860
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·406368368370388375370360185164159152
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·406368368370388375370360169145136126
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·343343343343343343343343156133115115
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1312109851.007766
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·51141619372826175431
Budget sources and other funds
·0000000016192326
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·563472482498500481503493335281278283
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·343343343343343343343343156133115115

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
61
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
7

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 1.05 · 96th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.78
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
5.099
GMI
0.970
AQI
2.325
SGI
0.998
DEPI
1.023
SGAI
1.138
TATA
−0.129
LVGI
1.405

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
2.8784th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
5.4%69th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.0497 (96th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.78, indicating its accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has moved materially this year. Specific Beneish components show a very large DSRI (5.0988, suggesting sales/receivable timing or recognition differences) and elevated receivable-related signals (AQI 2.3248, LVGI 1.4046); at the same time, reported accruals and cash-conversion metrics look strong (TATA -0.1293 and cash-conversion sub-scores are high), while the earnings-quality composite scores flag very low receivables quality (0.0/100) and revenue quality (6.6/100) but strong accruals, cash conversion and margins. The Altman Z-Score is 2.84 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 1.0497 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; higher indicates more aggressive accounting relative to peers). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not fully applicable in Vietnam; use the peer percentile and the YoY change (+2.78) as stronger cues.
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales Receivable Index) = 5.0988. DSRI measures the change in receivables relative to sales; a value this large signals receivables growing far faster than sales or sales being recognized ahead of cash collection.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 6.6/100 in the earnings-quality composite. These scores measure the likelihood that revenues and receivables reflect sustainable, cash-backed business activity; both are very low for this company.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.3248. AQI measures the rise in non-current and potentially less-productive assets (e.g., capitalized costs, long-term receivables); an elevated AQI supports concern about capitalization or reclassification of items that can inflate profits.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index variant) = 1.4046 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0233. These indicate rising leverage pressures and a small change in depreciation policy that could affect reported profit timing.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 2.87 (84th percentile among VN non-financials). This measures how much reported profit turns into cash; a value >1 means profit exceeds operating cash generation and is high versus peers (low cash conversion).
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100. This measures the extent of accrual-based adjustments; a perfect score indicates low abnormal accruals in the reported period.
  • Cash conversion subscore = 100.0/100 (earnings-quality components) — despite the 3-year aggregated cash-conversion ratio noted above, the earnings-quality model flags recent accrual/cash relationships as clean.
  • Margin quality = 100.0/100. This measures stability and plausibility of margins versus historical and peer patterns; the company scores strongly here.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.1293. TATA is a measure of accruals relative to assets; a negative value often indicates conservative recognition (accruals reducing reported earnings) rather than income-inflating accruals.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.9978 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9701. SGI near 1.0 indicates stable sales growth year on year; GMI <1 suggests gross margins have not deteriorated versus the prior year.
Ownership Risk

Reported shareholdings show dominant state ownership: Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Nam Định 49.5% and Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Ninh Bình 49.5%, indicating state/official control or influence is concentrated. Additional named shareholders include Công ty Cổ Phần Du Lịch Nam Định 18.5%, NTP 13.5% and Setfil 5.0%; these reported stakes as provided exceed 100% when summed, so please reconcile the exact holdings and any cross-holdings or group ownership in the company’s shareholder register and disclosures. No director-deal registrations were supplied in the data provided.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year-end trade receivables and the 'other long-term receivables / loans to related parties' lines in the balance sheet and the notes to the receivables schedule to quantify the components behind the large DSRI and the 5.4% of assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile revenue recognition policies (note on revenue) with the sales/receivables ageing schedule: check the note that explains revenue cut-off and the ageing of receivables to see if there are recent changes in terms, factoring, or related-party timing.
  • Inspect the note(s) describing 'other non-current assets' and capitalized costs to understand what drives AQI = 2.3248 (look for prepayments to suppliers, capitalized interest, or long-term deposits/advances to related parties).
  • Review the statement of cash flows and the reconciliation of net profit to operating cash flow (the operating cash-flow-to-net-profit schedule and any cash conversion note) to see drivers of the 3-year cash conversion = 2.87 and to cross-check working-capital movements.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.84
Grey Zone
Sharpe
2.34
Above 1
Composite
24
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.89×Interest Burden1.03×Op. Margin0.12×Turnover0.49×Leverage1.38=ROE7.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
+108.1%
Volatility
71.3%
Max Drawdown
−2.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
21.37P/E
P/B
1.63
P/S
2.40
ROE
8.0%
ROA
6.0%
EPS
908
BVPS
11.876
Gross Margin
34.5%
Net Margin
11.2%
D/E
0.13
Current Ratio
1.28
Rev Growth
−0.2%
Profit Growth
−7.2%
EV/EBITDA
7.50
Div Yield
1.2%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
34.2M
Charter Capital
342B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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