NDC

Công ty Cổ phần Nam Dược

VietnamConsumerY tếDược phẩmUPCOMCT

124.000

VND · Close 28 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+11.9%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 124.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 138.706

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

Also note

A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 27 Nov 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 28 Oct 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Y tế→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Y tế” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.910

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.10%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.10%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→77.46B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→124.000

Calibrated value vs last close→+11.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

138.706

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)11.10%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow77.5 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
9.1%	144.795	144.795	144.795	144.795	144.795
10.1%	142.208	142.208	144.795	144.795	144.795
11.1%	138.998	138.998	138.998	138.998	138.998
12.1%	138.706	138.706	138.998	138.998	138.998
13.1%	138.706	138.706	138.706	138.706	138.706

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

NDC among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, NDC marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is NDC. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	435	372	299	296	212	161	114	109	121	139	123	119	103	·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	66	122	96	146	81	62	33	41	25	24	19	19	21	·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	215	85	45	0	14	15	2	2	10	35	0	0	0	·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	59	54	52	34	25	23	24	14	34	22	17	16	8	·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	7	3	12	7	6	13	13	3	4	17	11	8	3	·
Net Inventories	·	88	104	102	108	88	58	53	49	50	57	86	82	72	·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	88	104	102	108	88	58	53	49	50	57	86	82	72	·
Other current assets	·	7	7	6	8	3	3	2	3	2	2	0.7	3	2	·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.07	0.4	·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	385	377	350	298	214	194	178	150	103	35	35	43	52	·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.2	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.2	0	0	·
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0.2	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0	0	·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	332	317	282	247	209	178	174	132	98	31	31	38	48	·
Tangible fixed assets	·	106	92	57	63	67	54	50	23	27	31	31	37	48	·
Intagible fixed assets	·	225	226	226	184	142	124	124	109	71	0	0.08	0.2	0.2	·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	·
Other non-current assets	·	48	50	49	50	3	3	3	4	3	2	3	5	3	·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	48	49	48	50	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	3	·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	820	749	650	594	426	355	292	260	224	174	158	162	154	·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	170	162	136	149	93	68	60	65	60	36	36	39	40	·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	170	162	136	149	93	68	60	50	39	36	36	39	36	·
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	6	10	20	8	15	·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.6	1	1	9	2	0.3	0.1	0.2	307,000	0.4	0.08	0.7	0.9	·
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	21	0	0	0	3	·
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	21	0	0	0	3	·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	650	587	514	446	333	287	232	195	163	139	122	123	115	·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	650	587	514	446	333	287	232	195	163	139	122	123	115	·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	57	57	57	57	57	57	·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	590	528	454	386	273	227	172	138	107	82	65	66	58	·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	820	749	650	594	426	355	292	260	224	174	158	162	154	·
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	0	3	0	0	·
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	57	57	57	57	57	57	·

◆vnvalue Research Note

Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.58 · 34th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +0.05

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.111

GMI

0.977

AQI

0.816

SGI

0.977

DEPI

0.928

SGAI

1.077

TATA

−0.018

LVGI

0.962

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 1.0346th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.8%33rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

6.09

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.08

Positive

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.12×Turnover1.13×Leverage1.26=ROE13.9%

Price Risk

Momentum

+40.1%

Volatility

82.9%

Max Drawdown

−32.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.21P/E

P/B: 1.14
P/S: 0.80
ROE: 14.6%
ROA: 11.5%
EPS: 15.102
BVPS: 108.930
Gross Margin: 51.8%
Net Margin: 9.7%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 2.56
EV/EBITDA: 3.95
Div Yield: 2.4%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 6.0M
Charter Capital: 59.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Y tế
Industry (ICB L3): Dược phẩm
Sub-industry: Dược phẩm
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for NDC. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Dương Thị Sáu

Indiv

23.8%

1.4M

2026-06-30

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Thương Mại Dịch Vụ Quảng Cáo Promind

Inst

21.6%

1.3M

2025-12-31

Công ty TNHH Dược Phẩm Ích Nhân

Inst

19.6%

1.2M

2026-06-30

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Châu Á - Thái Bình Dương

APS

6.1%

344,000

2015-06-15

Nguyễn Văn Giang

Indiv

6.0%

359,200

2026-06-30

Hoàng Minh Châu

Indiv

3.2%

189,500

2026-06-30

Lã Xuân Hạnh

Indiv

2.3%

139,200

2026-06-30

Dương Thị Lan

Indiv

1.8%

105,000

2026-06-30

Lê Văn Sản

Indiv

1.0%

57,900

2026-06-30

Phạm Bình Công

Indiv

0.8%

50,000

2026-06-30

Hoàng Đức Hải

Indiv

0.8%

45,000

2009-12-11

Nguyễn Thị Nhung

Indiv

0.8%

45,000

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Lan Hương

Indiv

0.5%

32,000

2026-06-30

Khuất Văn Mạnh

Indiv

0.4%

24,825

2026-06-30

Nguyễn Đức Quân

Indiv

0.4%

21,300

2009-12-11

Phùng Thị Thu Hà

Indiv

0.2%

12,100

2026-06-30

Trần Văn Doanh

Indiv

0.2%

10,000

2026-06-30

Vũ Thị Nga

Indiv

0.1%

7,500

2025-12-31

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Giang6.0%

Vice Chairman of Management Board

Hoàng Minh Châu3.2%

Chairman of Management Board/General Director/Spokesman/Person in charge of Corporate governace

Lã Xuân Hạnh2.3%

Member of Management Board

Lê Văn Sản1.0%

Member of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Phạm Bình Công0.8%

Member of Management Board

Khuất Văn Mạnh0.4%

Member of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Trần Văn Doanh0.2%

Head of Supervisors Board

Đoàn Minh Luân

Member of Supervisors Board

Nguyễn Ngọc Vũ

Branch Director

Phạm Thành Đạt

Member of Supervisors Board

Top connections

API13.1%IDJ9.5%CSC6.1%HUT6.1%PVX6.1%CTG6.1%

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

NDC among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

NDC among Consumer