NAG
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Nagakawa
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.515
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 44.1%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.618th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.1%68th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows mixed signals: the Beneish M-Score is -1.3507 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.76, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially year-over-year. Earnings-quality components are uneven (Revenue quality 85.9/100 strong; Cash conversion 0.0/100 very weak). Other distress indicators are present: Altman Z-Score 1.84 (grey zone) and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.
- Beneish M-Score -1.3507: a model designed to flag likely earnings manipulation; the company sits at the 82nd percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and the M-Score rose by +0.76 year-over-year (the change signals a material trajectory even though the US -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated).
- Beneish components pointing to pressure and quality concerns: GMI 1.2231 (measures gross-margin deterioration; >1 indicates gross margins worsening), AQI 1.3156 (asset quality index; >1 signals a shift toward less conservative asset capitalization), SGI 0.6782 (SGA index <1 indicates SGA expenses fell relative to sales — context-dependent), DSRI 1.0945 (days sales receivables index >1 indicates receivables growing faster than sales), DEPI 1.0666 (depreciation index >1 indicates lower reported depreciation expense relative to prior period), LVGI 1.0300 (leverage index >1 indicates rising leverage), TATA 0.1187 (total accruals to assets; positive but modest accruals).
- Very poor cash conversion: Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = -2.61, ranked in the 8th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials (low = profit not turning into cash). This shows reported profits have not been accompanied by operating cash inflows over three years.
- Weak earnings-quality sub-scores: overall Earnings Quality Score 40.8/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 (critical weakness) and accruals quality 55.0/100, suggesting earnings are supported by accounting items rather than cash.
- Low Piotroski F-Score: 2/9, indicating weak recent fundamentals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals.
- Altman Z-Score 1.84 (grey zone): this measures distance to bankruptcy using a blend of profitability, leverage, liquidity and sales—1.84 places the company in an intermediate risk band rather than a safe zone.
- Receivables and non-trade receivables: 'Receivables outside the trade cycle' = 5.1% of total assets (68th percentile). This captures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and suggests a meaningful portion of assets are non-trade receivables.
- High revenue-quality sub-score: Revenue quality = 85.9/100, which indicates reported revenue patterns (growth, persistence and relation to cash) score well relative to other components.
- No accumulated losses and positive equity: accumulated losses = none (undistributed earnings not negative) and owner's equity (without minority interest) is positive—these are statutory balance-sheet facts.
- Statutory loss tests: none of the statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended by Decree 245/2025 were met in the audited FY2025 statements (a fact about the published statements).
- Some Beneish components not extreme: TATA (total accruals to assets) = 0.1187 (positive but not extremely high) and LVGI = 1.0300 (leverage rising slightly); these are not as large as some other red flags and suggest accruals and leverage increases are measurable but not extreme.
Top ownership is concentrated in individuals: Nguyễn Đức Khả 25.5% and Nguyễn Thị Huyền Thương 14.8% (top two = 40.3% combined). Remaining listed holders are individuals with much smaller stakes (next largest 4.8%, then 0.1% holdings). Director-deal registrations recorded between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 1 sale registration (103,000 shares, 1 registrant) and 6 purchase registrations (5 registrants; 8,308,309 shares registered, with one registration missing a volume) — these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the three-year operating cash flow and net profit lines in the consolidated cash flow statement and income statement to confirm the -2.61 cash-conversion ratio and to trace which year(s) drive the negative conversion.
- Inspect the notes/schedule on receivables and related-party balances to identify the composition of the 5.1% 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables) and check counterparty names and maturities.
- Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset notes to reconcile changes that feed AQI = 1.3156 (asset reclassification, capitalized costs, impairment or additions) and the DEPI = 1.0666 depreciation pattern.
- Check the statement of changes in equity and retained-earnings note to confirm there are no accumulated losses and to verify owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive as stated.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.85
- P/S
- 0.12
- ROE
- 7.5%
- ROA
- 1.6%
- EPS
- 839
- BVPS
- 11.840
- Gross Margin
- 8.9%
- Net Margin
- 1.0%
- D/E
- 3.13
- Current Ratio
- 1.15
- Rev Growth
- +21.3%
- Profit Growth
- +20.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 10.87
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 55.6M
- Charter Capital
- 556B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
- Sub-industry
- Hàng điện & điện tử
- Company Type
- CT