Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.953
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 22 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 25.3%93rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.36×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 5Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows an elevated Beneish M-Score of 0.0976 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), driven by high sales-growth and asset-quality components, while the year-over-year M-Score moved down by -0.35. Earnings-quality indicators are mixed: accruals and receivables score 100/100 but cash-conversion, margin and revenue-quality scores are 0/100; Altman Z = 3.33 (safe zone) and Piotroski F = 5/9 (neutral).
- High relative M-Score: 0.0976, at the 94th percentile among Vietnamese peers (a high percentile indicates more aggressive accounting versus Vietnamese peers).
- High Sales Growth Index (SGI = 5.2794) — this measures year-over-year sales growth and can magnify incentives to manage earnings when growth is very large.
- Asset quality index elevated (AQI = 1.1204) — AQI measures the proportion of non-current or potentially illiquid assets (e.g., receivables, other assets) relative to total assets; values >1 indicate an increase in such assets.
- High DEPI = 1.1536 — depreciation index above 1 signals slower depreciation expense (lower current depreciation relative to prior year), which can inflate reported profits.
- Large proportion of receivables and non-trade assets: receivables outside the trade cycle = 25.3% of total assets (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese non-financial firms). This line aggregates prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long-term receivables and is unusually large.
- Five consecutive years of net loss at the parent (up to FY2025) and audited statements that show losses in each of the latest 3 years (the statutory loss test condition is met in the financials, though UPCoM listings are not subject to the exchange cancellation rule).
- Earnings-quality sub-scores showing weaknesses: cash-conversion = 0/100, margin quality = 0/100 and revenue quality = 0/100, indicating poor cash generation relative to earnings and weak evidence on the sustainability/quality of margins and revenue.
- Accruals quality = 100/100 — this measures the behavior of accruals versus cash flows and suggests accruals are currently behaving consistently with revenue recognition and cash items.
- Receivables quality = 100/100 — the receivables profile (turnover/aging patterns used in the score) does not, by itself, indicate classic revenue-recognition manipulation, despite the large absolute size of non-trade receivables.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = -0.0716 — a negative TATA implies accruals reduced reported earnings (the company recorded accrual adjustments that lowered earnings rather than inflated them in the period measured).
- DSRI = 0.1557 and GMI = 0.1027 and SGAI = 0.1646 — these low values imply inventory/sales and gross-margin deterioration metrics (DSRI, GMI) and SG&A intensity (SGAI) are not signaling upward pressure on revenue recognition or big SG&A-driven profit management in the measured periods.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.33 — places the firm in the 'safe' zone on the bankruptcy-distance metric.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 — a middling score indicating neither strong nor extremely weak operating and profitability fundamentals.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Mai Đức Hùng (29.7%), the Mai Đức Hùng investment fund (25.8%) and Mai Đức Tú (20.0%) together control about 75.5% of shares, with smaller individual holdings following. Director-deal registrations in the year show net registered sale volume of -3.00% of shares outstanding (registrations, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 balance-sheet line(s) for 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans receivable' and 'other long-term receivables' with the related-party disclosures and the notes to accounts to break down the 25.3% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and profit: match the cash-flow-from-operations (CFO) in the cash-flow statement to reported net profit to verify the cash-conversion weakness (the cash-conversion score = 0/100).
- Read the auditor's report and management discussion for explanations of depreciation and useful-life policy changes related to DEPI = 1.1536 and check fixed-asset schedules for major revaluations or life extensions.
- Locate the statutory and parent-company profit lines and the statement of retained earnings/accumulated losses to confirm five consecutive years of parent net loss and the accumulated loss amount equal to 0.36× paid-in capital.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.81
- P/S
- 10.50
- ROE
- −11.3%
- ROA
- −9.0%
- EPS
- −771
- BVPS
- 6.439
- Gross Margin
- 28.3%
- Net Margin
- −166.1%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 8.03
- Rev Growth
- +427.9%
- Profit Growth
- +9.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 20.0M
- Charter Capital
- 200B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT