Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.398
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 22 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −4.176th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.2%13th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.3115 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting accrual patterns more aggressive than most local peers; the M-Score rose by +2.68 year-over-year. Earnings-quality components show extreme weakness in accruals and cash conversion (both score 0.0/100) but strong receivables quality (100.0/100). Other health metrics are mixed: Altman Z-Score is 5.67 (in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance) while the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.3115 (measures eight financial ratios intended to detect earnings manipulation); Vietnam peer percentile = 92nd (this company’s M-Score is more aggressive than 92% of Vietnamese non-financial peers).
- Year-over-year M-Score change = +2.68 (measures trajectory of the M-Score; a notable rise year-over-year can signal a recent shift in accounting patterns).
- Earnings-Quality — Accruals quality = 0.0/100 (measures proportion and volatility of accruals vs cash; zero indicates very weak accruals quality).
- Earnings-Quality — Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (measures operating cash flow relative to profit over three years; zero indicates profits are not converting into cash).
- Vietnam check — 3-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -4.17 (6th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; low/negative means reported net profit has not translated into operating cash flow over three years).
- Beneish SGAI = 2.4443 (measures growth in SG&A relative to sales; a value >1 suggests SG&A grew faster than sales and can flag cost recognition or margin management).
- Beneish DSRI = 0.2606 and SGI = 0.4055 (DSRI <1 and SGI <1 measure changes in days sales outstanding and sales growth; these low values reflect declines in receivables relative to sales and falling sales, which can interact with other ratios to distort M-Score interpretation).
- Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 8 sale registrations (6 traders; 219,000 shares; 6 registrations without a disclosed volume) and 7 purchase registrations (7 traders; 290,000 shares; 5 registrations without a disclosed volume). These are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades; the mix and number can be a signal to verify insider intent and related-party disclosures.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures the proportion and ageing of receivables outside the trade cycle; a top score indicates receivables are not a material concern by the model’s criteria).
- Beneish AQI = 1.0000 and DEPI = 1.0000 (AQI = asset quality index; DEPI = depreciation index. AQI =1 and DEPI =1 suggest no model-detected increase in asset write-offs or unusual depreciation policies relative to prior periods).
- Beneish TATA = 0.7847 and LVGI = 0.9434 (TATA measures total accruals to total assets; LVGI measures leverage growth index. TATA <1 and LVGI close to 1 are not extreme under the model’s lenses).
- Altman Z-Score = 5.67 (measures distance to bankruptcy; a value well above the distress threshold indicates low bankruptcy risk by this composite metric).
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 (these are direct facts from the financial statements indicating retained earnings and equity are not negative).
Shareholding is concentrated among individuals: the top five listed holders hold 63.5% together (Việt Thụy Tố Quyên 14.1%; Trần Hoàng Dự 13.3%; Nguyễn Thùy Như Khuyên 13.3%; Nguyễn Thị Mai Trâm 13.3%; Trần Văn Nhật 9.5%). Director-deal registrations (8 sale and 7 purchase registrations over the past year) are registered intentions rather than executed trades and should be read as disclosed proposed insider activity.
- Compare the three-year operating cash flow line in the consolidated cash-flow statement to consolidated net profit (income statement) and the ‘cash flows from operating activities’ note to confirm the -4.17 cash-conversion ratio calculation.
- Inspect the trade and non-trade receivables schedules (notes labeled ‘receivables’, ‘loans and advances’, or ‘prepayments to suppliers’) to verify that receivables outside the trade cycle are 0.2% of total assets and to identify counterparty, related-party, and ageing detail.
- Review the related-party transactions note and any schedules of loans/advances to related parties to reconcile director-deal registrations and to identify whether registered insider transactions relate to share pledges, loans, or other intra-group arrangements.
- Examine the statement of changes in equity and the retained earnings note to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that parent-level net loss is zero for the most recent year; also check minority-interest schedules to reconcile reported owner’s equity excluding minorities.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.37
- P/S
- 1.80
- ROE
- 1.5%
- ROA
- 1.4%
- EPS
- 265
- BVPS
- 18.289
- Gross Margin
- 41.9%
- Net Margin
- 7.1%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 18.61
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1.5M
- Charter Capital
- 15.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Khai khoáng
- Sub-industry
- Khai khoáng
- Company Type
- CT