Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 13.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 15.884
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 14 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 2.1677th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.6%26th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.6553 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.93, indicating its accounting signals are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved materially year-on-year. Key red flags include a high DSRI (1.4825), very weak cash-conversion and receivables/revenue quality (0/100 each) and an Altman Z-Score of 1.54 (in the distress zone); offsetting signals include a low TATA (0.1446), a GMI <1 (0.7085) and no accumulated statutory losses in the published statements.
- Beneish M-Score -1.6553 (76th percentile among Vietnamese peers): the score is above many peers and the M-Score rose by +0.93 year-over-year. The M-Score is a composite signalling unusual accounting patterns; in the Vietnamese sample ~28% cross the US -1.78 cutoff, so the high peer percentile and the YoY rise are notable.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.4825: this measures the change in receivables relative to sales; a value >1 means receivables are growing faster than sales, consistent with the very low receivables and revenue quality scores.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 2.16 (77th percentile): this metric shows profit is not converting into operating cash (higher percentile = worse in the Vietnam ranking), and the Earnings-Quality component 'Cash conversion' is scored 0.0/100.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.6% of total assets (26th percentile) but 'Receivables quality' = 0.0/100 and 'Revenue quality' = 0.0/100: although receivables outside the trade cycle are not large in absolute balance, the quality flags suggest recognition/timing or revenue persistence concerns.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.54 (distress zone): this bankruptcy-distance metric places the company in the distress zone, indicating weak financial-health ratios used in the Z-Score.
- Earnings Quality Score = 19.5/100 with Accruals quality 48.1/100 and Margin quality 50.0/100: overall low earnings-quality aggregate, driven especially by cash/receivable/revenue items.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 1.0497 (>1): SG&A rose relative to sales, which can pressure margins and may reflect discretionary expense timing or classification changes.
- Year‑on‑year movement in the M-Score (+0.93) while Beneish consecutive-year correlation is low (0.06): the change is an additional signal that accounting behaviour shifted materially in the latest period.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1446: this measures accruals intensity; the reported level is relatively low compared with some manipulation cases (TATA is part of Beneish’s accrual evidence).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.7085 (<1): this index measures deterioration or improvement in gross margins; a value below 1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.7107 (<1): this measures the proportion of non-current, less-depreciable assets; a value <1 suggests asset composition moved toward higher-quality (or more depreciable) assets rather than growth in potentially capitalized/illiquid items.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.9837 (~1 and slightly <1): sales growth was roughly flat or slightly down, reducing one common pressure to manipulate revenue recognition to meet growth targets.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle only 0.6% of total assets (26th percentile): in absolute balance-sheet terms these non-trade receivables are small relative to assets, which tempers some concerns about hidden loans or large related-party receivables in the notes.
A state-owned parent entity, Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam, holds 36.0% and three individuals hold 15.0%, 9.7% and 4.7% respectively; ownership is concentrated with a large institutional holder plus meaningful individual stakes. Director-deal registrations net +0.32% of shares outstanding over the past year (one sale registration for 120,000 shares and one purchase registration for 150,000 shares); these are exchange registrations of intended trades, not executed trades.
- Compare the three-year operating cash flows and the consolidated cash-flow statement lines to the net profit line for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the cash-conversion ratio of 2.16 and identify timing differences in working capital.
- Inspect the receivables, prepayments and related‑party balances in the notes (trade receivables, loans to/from related parties, and other long-term receivables) to reconcile the 0.6% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the disclosure for SG&A expense and revenue recognition policies (accounting policy note and any revenue schedules) to understand drivers of SGAI = 1.0497 and the 0.0/100 revenue-quality score.
- Confirm statutory-loss and equity lines in the audited financial statements and the auditor’s report: the published statements show no accumulated undistributed losses, parent net loss in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025, positive owner’s equity (excluding minority interest), and the company does not meet the statutory loss tests cited (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.40
- P/S
- 0.08
- ROE
- 5.3%
- ROA
- 1.3%
- EPS
- 1.724
- BVPS
- 32.593
- Gross Margin
- 9.2%
- Net Margin
- 1.1%
- D/E
- 1.73
- Current Ratio
- 1.24
- Rev Growth
- −1.6%
- Profit Growth
- −1.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.60
- Div Yield
- 7.7%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 9.4M
- Charter Capital
- 93.9B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT