LAW
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp thoát nước Long An
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 19.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 20.600
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 3.0685th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.7%28th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows elevated indicators of aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 0.8974 (95th percentile vs Vietnam peers) with a year-over-year rise of +4.05. Earnings-quality is mixed: very high accruals and cash-conversion scores (100/100 each) but weak receivables quality (0/100) and low margin quality (34.9/100). The Altman Z-Score is 2.13 (grey zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is strong at 8/9.
- Beneish M-Score 0.8974 (95th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M-Score measures the probability of earnings manipulation signals; the company is high versus local peers and the M-Score increased by +4.05 year-over-year (the YoY move is an additional cue).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000. AQI measures shifts to long‑lived and other non-current assets (higher values can reflect capitalization or reclassification that raise reported earnings).
- DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3417. DSRI measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales (a value >1 can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1239 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0625. LVGI >1 signals rising leverage; DEPI >1 indicates slower depreciation expense or changes in useful lives/asset policies that boost reported profit.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.2145. SGAI >1 suggests SG&A growing faster than sales, which can mask operating performance.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.1061 (negative). TATA measures accruals; a sizable negative value can mean cash earnings exceed accrual earnings or large non‑cash items affecting earnings.
- Earnings-quality margin score 34.9/100. Low margin quality points to earnings volatility or reliance on non-recurring items to support margins.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100. This measures the degree to which reported profits are supported by conservative accruals; this is a strong signal for accrual reliability.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, three-year) = 3.06 (85th percentile). The cash-conversion metric here measures how well reported profit converts into operating cash flow over three years; the high ratio indicates operating cash significantly exceeds reported profit historically (note: high percentile indicates profit not turning into cash is common wording in the peer ranking—see Checks).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.7% of total assets (28th percentile). This measures prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables outside normal trade terms; a low value indicates limited such balances relative to assets.
- Revenue quality = 89.1/100. This measures how much revenue growth is driven by recurring, sustainable sources rather than one-offs.
Ownership is highly concentrated and dominated by public institutions: Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Long An holds 60.0% and Tổng công ty Nước - Môi trường Bình Dương holds 38.1%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data (director-deal registrations, when present, are exchange-registered intentions rather than executed trades).
- Compare the line(s) or note(s) for 'Receivables' and 'Other receivables' in FY2025 to the related‑party schedule to confirm composition of the 0.7% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows (operating cash flow) for FY2023–FY2025 with consolidated net profit to verify the three‑year cash conversion ratio of 3.06 and identify the main cash/non‑cash timing differences.
- Inspect the fixed‑asset and depreciation note for FY2025 to see whether changes in useful lives, revaluations or capitalization policies explain DEPI = 1.0625 and AQI = 10.0000.
- Review related‑party transaction disclosures and the notes on loans/advances to confirm whether any material amounts drive SG&A or unusual balances that could underlie SGAI = 1.2145 or DSRI = 1.3417.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.31
- P/S
- 0.76
- ROE
- 15.1%
- ROA
- 7.9%
- EPS
- 2.446
- BVPS
- 16.971
- Gross Margin
- 31.1%
- Net Margin
- 8.3%
- D/E
- 0.37
- Current Ratio
- 0.50
- Rev Growth
- +10.1%
- Profit Growth
- +47.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.61
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 12.2M
- Charter Capital
- 122B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Nước
- Company Type
- CT