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Công ty Cổ phần Cấp thoát nước Long An

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtNước & Khí đốtUPCOMCT
19.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+8.4%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
19.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
20.600

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
2
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→202
Payout ratio→12.2%
3
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→19.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+8.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
20.600
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate
Dividend per share202dps source: eventspayout ratio: 12.19
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·653833414233354637352937
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·2054485514211834
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00.90.10.10.10.1000049
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·19131512126541463
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·31120.80.30.31.00.30.40.72
Net Inventories
·201614242221222313131520
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·251919242221222313131520
Other current assets
·630.310.323410.40.71
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·347304281286266273272243235229225219
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000.20.2000000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000.20.2000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·316303279258244257254231224227208219
Tangible fixed assets
·314301278256243256252230223225206217
Intagible fixed assets
·221122222222
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00000000.70.70.600
Investments in associate companies
·00000000.70.70.600
Other non-current assets
·141.0211716910130
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·141.0211716910130
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·411342314327307306307289273264254256
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·204155141159143145144131124123124129
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1308471998677775234293545
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·1413124353291111111188
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·20.9220.6210.50.020.070.010.8
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·747170605768677990948984
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·635957464255667687908584
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·207187173168164161163158149141130128
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·207187173168164161163158149141130128
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·122122122122122122122122122122122114
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·85655146423941362719814
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·411342314327307306307289273264254256
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·122122122122122122122122122122122114

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
65
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
35
Revenue Quality
89

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 0.90 · 95th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +4.05
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.342
GMI
0.818
AQI
10.000
SGI
1.101
DEPI
1.063
SGAI
1.215
TATA
−0.106
LVGI
1.124

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
3.0685th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.7%28th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows elevated indicators of aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 0.8974 (95th percentile vs Vietnam peers) with a year-over-year rise of +4.05. Earnings-quality is mixed: very high accruals and cash-conversion scores (100/100 each) but weak receivables quality (0/100) and low margin quality (34.9/100). The Altman Z-Score is 2.13 (grey zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is strong at 8/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 0.8974 (95th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M-Score measures the probability of earnings manipulation signals; the company is high versus local peers and the M-Score increased by +4.05 year-over-year (the YoY move is an additional cue).
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000. AQI measures shifts to long‑lived and other non-current assets (higher values can reflect capitalization or reclassification that raise reported earnings).
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3417. DSRI measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales (a value >1 can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues).
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1239 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0625. LVGI >1 signals rising leverage; DEPI >1 indicates slower depreciation expense or changes in useful lives/asset policies that boost reported profit.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.2145. SGAI >1 suggests SG&A growing faster than sales, which can mask operating performance.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.1061 (negative). TATA measures accruals; a sizable negative value can mean cash earnings exceed accrual earnings or large non‑cash items affecting earnings.
  • Earnings-quality margin score 34.9/100. Low margin quality points to earnings volatility or reliance on non-recurring items to support margins.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100. This measures the degree to which reported profits are supported by conservative accruals; this is a strong signal for accrual reliability.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, three-year) = 3.06 (85th percentile). The cash-conversion metric here measures how well reported profit converts into operating cash flow over three years; the high ratio indicates operating cash significantly exceeds reported profit historically (note: high percentile indicates profit not turning into cash is common wording in the peer ranking—see Checks).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.7% of total assets (28th percentile). This measures prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables outside normal trade terms; a low value indicates limited such balances relative to assets.
  • Revenue quality = 89.1/100. This measures how much revenue growth is driven by recurring, sustainable sources rather than one-offs.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated and dominated by public institutions: Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Long An holds 60.0% and Tổng công ty Nước - Môi trường Bình Dương holds 38.1%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data (director-deal registrations, when present, are exchange-registered intentions rather than executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line(s) or note(s) for 'Receivables' and 'Other receivables' in FY2025 to the related‑party schedule to confirm composition of the 0.7% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows (operating cash flow) for FY2023–FY2025 with consolidated net profit to verify the three‑year cash conversion ratio of 3.06 and identify the main cash/non‑cash timing differences.
  • Inspect the fixed‑asset and depreciation note for FY2025 to see whether changes in useful lives, revaluations or capitalization policies explain DEPI = 1.0625 and AQI = 10.0000.
  • Review related‑party transaction disclosures and the notes on loans/advances to confirm whether any material amounts drive SG&A or unusual balances that could underlie SGAI = 1.2145 or DSRI = 1.3417.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.13
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.29
Negative
Composite
27
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.90×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.09×Turnover0.87×Leverage1.99=ROE14.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
−3.5%
Volatility
143.0%
Max Drawdown
−52.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.12P/E
P/B
1.31
P/S
0.76
ROE
15.1%
ROA
7.9%
EPS
2.446
BVPS
16.971
Gross Margin
31.1%
Net Margin
8.3%
D/E
0.37
Current Ratio
0.50
Rev Growth
+10.1%
Profit Growth
+47.3%
EV/EBITDA
4.61
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
12.2M
Charter Capital
122B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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