Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 22.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 22.959
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0821st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.4%53rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 2.9495 (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.41, indicating aggressive accounting indicators relative to peers and a recent upward trajectory. Several Beneish components are extreme: DSRI = 5.4311 (suggesting receivables/sales growth versus inventory/sales), TATA = 0.3595 (total accruals to assets), and DEPI = 0.3162 (depreciation index), while the Earnings-Quality composite is very low at 1.3/100 and the cash-conversion metric over three years is -0.08 (21st percentile), showing profits have not translated into operating cash; Altman Z = 2.85 (grey zone) and Piotroski F = 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = 2.9495 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation based on financial-ratio signals); the company sits at the 98th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score rose by +3.41 year-over-year (the trajectory is a secondary cue).
- DSRI = 5.4311 (days sales receivable index component of Beneish measures the change in receivables relative to sales and inventory activity) — an unusually high value consistent with receivables growing faster than sales or with receivables being outside the ordinary trade cycle.
- TATA = 0.3595 (total accruals to assets; part of the Beneish score) and Accruals quality = 5.4/100 (measures the reliability of accruals) — both indicate a high level of accrual-based profit relative to assets and weak accrual quality.
- Earnings-Quality = 1.3/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these components measure how much reported earnings are supported by cash, receivable behaviour, margins and revenue patterns) — collectively they flag weak support for reported profits.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.08 (21st percentile among VN non-financials) — indicates that, over three years, operating cash flow was lower than net profit and places the company in the lower quintile for converting profit into cash.
- DEPI = 0.3162 (depreciation index component of Beneish; a value below 1 can indicate slower reported depreciation relative to historical rates) and AQI = 1.0000 (asset quality index) — signals to examine fixed-asset and intangible capitalization and depreciation policies.
- SGI = 1.0313 (sales growth index; measures sales growth year-over-year) — modest sales growth rather than extreme expansion.
- LVGI = 0.7749 (leverage index component in Beneish; a value below 1 indicates leverage did not increase aggressively) — no large upward leverage signal from this metric.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.85 (measures distance to bankruptcy; the company sits in the 'grey zone' rather than the distress zone), and Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures nine fundamental signals) — neither score indicates acute financial distress or very strong fundamentals; Piotroski is neutral.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.4% of total assets (53rd percentile among Vietnamese peers) — the level of prepayments/loans/long-term receivables is around the median for local peers, not unusually large.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: five named individuals together hold 65.9% (Bùi Trung Thu 20.8%, Đỗ Tấn Cường 18.6%, Đinh Văn Xuân 10.4%, Đinh Đức Trung 9.5%, Lê Văn Thịnh 6.6%), which indicates concentrated control and potential for related‑party transactions typical in Vietnamese group structures and family ownership.
- Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables and 'loans and receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet to sales in the revenue note and to the receivables aging schedule to explain DSRI = 5.4311.
- Reconcile total accruals (profit before tax minus cash from operations) to TATA = 0.3595 and inspect the notes on provisions, capitalization policies and depreciation to understand DEPI = 0.3162 and AQI = 1.0000.
- Verify the components of operating cash flow in the cash-flow statement and the reconciliation to net profit to confirm the three-year cash conversion = -0.08 and to identify which items (changes in working capital, non-cash adjustments) drive the negative conversion.
- Check the related‑party schedules, prepayments and 'other receivables' notes for amounts that make up the 2.4% of total assets listed as receivables outside the trade cycle, and match those to the largest shareholders or group disclosures.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.16
- P/S
- 2.03
- ROE
- 112.1%
- ROA
- 51.9%
- EPS
- 29.405
- BVPS
- 42.439
- Gross Margin
- 21.1%
- Net Margin
- 119.5%
- D/E
- 0.09
- Current Ratio
- 2.73
- Rev Growth
- +3.2%
- Profit Growth
- +636.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 1.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 23.8M
- Charter Capital
- 238B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT