KTC
Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Kiên Giang
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 16.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 17.944
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 25 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.818th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.3%64th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.4225 (81st percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.66, indicating more aggressive accounting metrics versus most local peers and a notable upward trajectory. Key weaknesses shown are a very weak cash-conversion profile (three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -2.81, 8th percentile) and multiple earnings-quality sub-scores at or near zero (Cash conversion 0.0/100; Receivables quality 0.0/100; Revenue quality 0.0/100), while solvency and operating fundamentals appear reasonable (Altman Z-Score 4.59 in the safe zone; Piotroski F-Score 6/9).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.4225 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns); 81st percentile vs Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting relative to peers) and YoY change +0.66 (the score has moved materially year-over-year).
- DSRI = 1.6325 (Days Sales in Receivables Index; elevated value can indicate revenue recognition or collection changes).
- Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -2.81 (measures extent to which reported profits convert to cash; ranked in the 8th percentile vs VN non-financials — low cash conversion).
- Earnings-quality composite components: Cash conversion 0.0/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100, Revenue quality 0.0/100 (these sub-scores indicate very weak observable cash and revenue convertibility and receivables behaviour in the scoring model).
- TATA = 0.0979 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; non-zero accruals fraction indicating accrual-based profit elements).
- Altman Z-Score = 4.59 (measures distance to bankruptcy; falls in the 'safe' zone, implying low bankruptcy risk by the model's inputs).
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of firm quality; a neutral-to-fairly-strong score rather than weak fundamentals).
- Margin quality = 72.9/100 and Accruals quality = 60.8/100 (the margin profile and accruals consistency score are relatively stronger within the earnings-quality components).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.3% of total assets (measures prepayments, long-term receivables and similar; ranked 64th percentile — not extreme relative to peers).
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; parent net loss in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 (these are balance-sheet and statutory outcomes consistent with solvency and continued reporting).
Ownership is highly concentrated in institutional/state-related hands: Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Kiên Giang 49.0%, Công ty Xăng Dầu Khu Vực II 25.0%, Công ty TNHH MTV Xăng Dầu Tây Nam Bộ 13.9%, and Quỹ Đầu Tư Phát Triển Kiên Giang 10.0% (together ~98% held by government-related and regional oil companies); a single individual owns 0.1%. This concentration implies control by provincial/state and related corporate entities rather than dispersed public shareholders.
- Compare the FY2025 schedule of operating cash flows to the parent-company profit or loss line to reconcile the three-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = -2.81).
- Inspect the notes and schedules for 'Receivables', 'Prepayments' and 'Loans to related parties' and quantify the 4.3% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the revenue recognition note(s) and the receivables aging table to assess drivers of DSRI = 1.6325 (days-sales-in-receivables index) and any concentration of large customers or related-party balances.
- Check the statement of changes in equity and the audited retained earnings / accumulated losses line to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.44
- P/S
- 0.10
- ROE
- 8.6%
- ROA
- 2.6%
- EPS
- 986
- BVPS
- 11.669
- Gross Margin
- 4.1%
- Net Margin
- 0.6%
- D/E
- 1.87
- Current Ratio
- 1.03
- Rev Growth
- +9.1%
- Profit Growth
- +40.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 21.17
- Div Yield
- 2.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 36.5M
- Charter Capital
- 365B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT