Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 1.113
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 19.3198th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 95.6%100th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.10×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows a very high Beneish M-Score of 3.4942 (98th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +5.37, driven by extreme DSRI (10.0000) and SGAI (5.1101). At the same time, solidity signals include an Altman Z-Score of 20.03 (safe zone) and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, while the statutory listing loss test for HOSE/HNX does not apply because the company trades on UPCoM.
- Beneish M-Score = 3.4942. The M-Score is a composite designed to signal likely earnings manipulation; at -1.78 Beneish flagged US manipulators, but in Vietnam ~28% exceed that cutoff. This company ranks at the 98th percentile among Vietnamese peers and its M-Score rose by +5.37 year-over-year (the YoY trajectory is an additional cue).
- DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 10.0000. DSRI measures receivables growth relative to sales; an extreme DSRI suggests receivables have grown much faster than sales or sales are being recorded without accompanying collectibility.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 95.6% of total assets (100th percentile). This check measures amounts classified as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables rather than trade receivables; 95.6% indicates nearly all assets are in non-trade receivable categories.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 19.31 (98th percentile). This metric shows profit is not converting into cash; a low percentage indicates earnings are not producing cash inflows.
- Earnings-quality component weaknesses: Receivables quality = 0/100, Margin quality = 0/100, Revenue quality = 0/100. These sub-scores indicate concerns about the sustainability and quality of reported revenue, margins and receivables.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index) = 5.1101. SGAI measures growth in SG&A relative to sales; a high SGAI can indicate unusual expense recognition patterns or cost behavior not in line with sales.
- Altman Z-Score = 20.03. The Z-Score is a bankruptcy-distance measure combining profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity; 20.03 places the company well inside the ‘safe’ zone on default risk.
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9. The F-Score summarizes nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 7 indicates generally strong fundamentals by that measure.
- Accruals quality = 100/100 and Cash-conversion subscore (within the Earnings Quality Score) = 100/100. The accruals metric measures the extent to which earnings are driven by accounting accruals versus cash; a perfect score suggests low accrual manipulation on that specific measure used in the earnings-quality model.
- AQI = 0.0000 and LVGI = 0.0470. AQI (Asset Quality Index) of zero in the Beneish components suggests no worsening in the proportion of long-term assets to total assets under that index, and LVGI (Leverage Index) near zero indicates modest leverage change per the Beneish inputs.
Ownership is highly concentrated among five individuals: Nguyễn Thị Định (21.5%) and four other individuals holding 16.7%, 16.7%, 16.7% and 13.3%. Concentrated insider ownership and a tightly held group structure increase the likelihood that related-party transactions, group financing or intra-group receivables appear in the financial statements; director-deal activity shows one sale registration for 702,000 shares (registered volume = -2.34% of shares outstanding) in the 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 window (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the line items that make up 'receivables' and 'other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet with the related-party note to identify prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and intra-group balances.
- Reproduce operating cash flow / net profit for 2023–2025 from the consolidated cash flow statement and income statement to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio (19.31) and reconcile timing differences or non-cash items.
- Inspect the revenue recognition note and the schedule for ageing of receivables and related-party balances to see whether high DSRI (10.0000) is driven by new sales terms, delayed collections or reclassification to non-trade receivables.
- Examine the SG&A disclosure and its reconciliation to profit before tax to understand the drivers of SGAI = 5.1101 and whether SG&A contains transfers to related parties, capitalization, or one-off items.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.09
- P/S
- 7.78
- ROE
- 2.2%
- ROA
- 2.0%
- EPS
- 197
- BVPS
- 9.024
- Gross Margin
- 8.6%
- Net Margin
- 191.8%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 143.18
- Rev Growth
- −58.6%
- Profit Growth
- +233.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 30.0M
- Charter Capital
- 300B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT