Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.054
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 15 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.149th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%9th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.7884 (89th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +1.24, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers and a material upward trajectory. Other signals: Altman Z‑Score is 1.29 (distress zone for bankruptcy distance), Piotroski F‑Score is 4/9 (neutral fundamentals), and the Earnings‑Quality composite is low at 25.7/100 with very weak accruals, cash conversion and margin components but strong receivables quality (100/100). Statutory loss tests are not met and there are no accumulated losses in the published statements.
- Beneish M‑Score = -0.7884 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); company ranks at the 89th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and M‑Score rose by +1.24 year‑over‑year (an upward trajectory in the model’s signal). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam; peer percentile and YoY change are emphasized.
- Earnings‑Quality = 25.7/100 (an aggregate measure of accruals, cash conversion, receivables, margins and revenue quality); specifically accruals quality = 0/100 and cash conversion = 0/100, indicating reported profit is not supported by cash flows or clean accrual metrics.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3‑year) = -2.14, ranked in the 9th percentile among Vietnamese non‑financial companies (measures whether reported profits convert into cash; a low/negative value suggests profits have not translated into cash).
- Altman Z‑Score = 1.29 (measures distance to bankruptcy using balance‑sheet and earnings inputs); this falls in the model’s distress zone, signalling elevated insolvency risk by that metric.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (9th percentile among Vietnamese peers) — a low ratio of prepayments/long‑term receivables/loans receivable outside normal trade, reducing concern about off‑balance‑sheet receivable buildup.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures whether receivables appear high‑risk or manipulated); the company scores maximally on this component.
- Revenue quality = 56.7/100 (a moderate score measuring persistence and cash support for revenue) and LVGI = 1.3243 (sales growth volatility index — part of Beneish inputs) do not show extreme revenue anomalies.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (ex‑minority) is positive; statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met in the audited statements — these are explicit facts from the published financials.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn T&d Group holds 85.7% (institutional majority). The remaining top individuals each hold small stakes (2.2%, 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%). This dominant majority position implies group control and potential related‑party dynamics characteristic of Vietnamese listed groups.
- Compare FY2025 operating cash flow and parent net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes to reconcile the 3‑year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = -2.14).
- Inspect the notes for 'receivables', 'prepayments to suppliers', and 'loans receivable' to confirm the composition that produces receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets.
- Review the related‑party transactions note and any schedules of balances with group companies to assess whether large intercompany balances, guarantees or prepayments could explain weak cash conversion and the M‑Score components (e.g., SGAI = 3.5304, TATA = 0.9236).
- Verify the statutory loss test disclosures and the statement of changes in equity to confirm 'no accumulated losses' and that none of the Decree 155/2020 (as amended) loss triggers are met in the audited annual statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.56
- P/S
- 1.67
- ROE
- 15.8%
- ROA
- 8.3%
- EPS
- 1.553
- BVPS
- 10.619
- Gross Margin
- 11.7%
- Net Margin
- 44.0%
- D/E
- 1.02
- Current Ratio
- 1.89
- Rev Growth
- −79.3%
- Profit Growth
- +17.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.2M
- Charter Capital
- 52.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Kim loại
- Sub-industry
- Thép và sản phẩm thép
- Company Type
- CT