KCB
Công ty Cổ phần Khoáng Sản và Luyện Kim Cao Bằng
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.701
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.9543rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.3%58th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting-warning metrics are mixed. The Beneish M-Score is -1.1399 (87th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.38, indicating accounting measures have moved toward more aggressive values relative to VN peers even though the raw M-Score is above the US -1.78 manipulaton cutoff; the Altman Z-Score is 3.09 (in the ‘safe’ zone for bankruptcy distance) while the Piotroski F-Score is a weak 3/9. Earnings-quality sub-scores show specific weaknesses: cash conversion and receivables quality are both 0.0/100, while accruals and margin quality are middling (62.9/100 and 66.2/100 respectively).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.1399 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); this is at the 87th Vietnam-peer percentile (higher indicates more aggressive accounting relative to VN peers) and rose by +2.38 year-over-year (the YoY move is a separate signal because consecutive-year M-Scores correlate weakly). Note: the -1.78 cutoff originates from a US sample and about 28% of Vietnamese companies exceed it.
- DSRI = 2.0982 (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index; a rise suggests receivables are growing faster than sales or sales are being recorded earlier), which is a substantial elevation versus typical ranges.
- TATA = 0.0928 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; positive accruals here contribute to weaker cash conversion and indicate earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash).
- LVGI = 1.7067 (Leverage Index; an increase in leverage relative to prior periods is present), and GMI = 1.1869 (Gross Margin Index >1 indicates gross margins have deteriorated year-over-year).
- Earnings-quality composite = 28.3/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (these two scores flag very low cash generation relative to reported profit and concerns about the composition/timing of receivables or other non-trade receivables).
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine signals of operational/earnings health; a score of 3 indicates weak fundamental profitability/efficiency signals).
- Altman Z-Score = 3.09 (measures bankruptcy distance; a score above ~2.6 is commonly interpreted as the 'safe' zone for financial distress), which points to no immediate bankruptcy-distance concern under that model.
- AQI (1 - Asset Quality Index) = 0.8220 (the AQI component is below 1; lower AQI often implies less investment in long-lived assets relative to revenues compared with prior year), and SGAI = 0.9382 (Selling, General & Admin Index slightly below 1, indicating SG&A did not increase relative to sales).
- Accumulated losses: none (undistributed earnings are positive) and owner’s equity attributable to parent is positive — both are clear balance-sheet facts that remove statutory loss flags.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.3% of total assets (58th percentile among VN non-financials) — this is not extreme in the Vietnamese universe and suggests other non-trade receivables/prepayments are present but not unusually large relative to peers.
Control is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Khoáng sản TKV (KSV) holds 51.9% (control). The company sits inside a listed group where the same parent controls other listed subsidiaries (BCV, CBI, TMG), which can imply intra-group transactions, related-party balances or strategic accounting choices influenced by the parent; two named individuals hold 5.4% and effectively 0.0% respectively.
- Compare the year‑by‑year movement in trade receivables and the note for 'loans and other receivables / prepayments' to reconcile the DSRI = 2.0982 and the 3.3% of assets figure.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and reported net profit in the consolidated cash‑flow statement and notes (the three‑year cash conversion ratio = 0.95 and the Earnings‑Quality Cash conversion = 0.0/100 indicate profit is not converting to cash).
- Inspect related‑party schedules and the notes on transactions with KSV and group companies for balances, terms, and whether intercompany receivables or advances explain non‑trade receivables or increased accruals.
- Check the composition of total accruals and the accounting policy note for revenue recognition and provisions to understand contributors to TATA = 0.0928 and DSRI elevation.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.79
- P/S
- 0.59
- ROE
- 8.7%
- ROA
- 6.5%
- EPS
- 1.074
- BVPS
- 12.518
- Gross Margin
- 32.5%
- Net Margin
- 6.4%
- D/E
- 0.07
- Current Ratio
- 2.73
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.52
- Div Yield
- 5.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 8.0M
- Charter Capital
- 80.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Khai khoáng
- Sub-industry
- Khai khoáng
- Company Type
- CT