Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 16.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 18.681
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8439th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.4%69th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The signals are mixed. The Beneish M-Score is -1.1413 (86th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +1.44), which indicates relatively more aggressive accounting metrics versus peers and a notable upward move in the score. At the same time the Altman Z-Score is 7.24 (safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral), while several Vietnamese-specific checks show no accumulated losses and owner's equity positive.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.1413 (this model estimates the likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company is in the 86th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, meaning its combined Beneish signals are more aggressive than about 86% of peers).
- M-Score year-over-year change = +1.44 (a sizeable upward move in the M-Score compared with the prior year; consecutive-year M-Scores have low stability, so the trajectory is an additional cue).
- DSRI = 2.4039 (Days’ Sales Receivable Index; this measures growth in receivables relative to sales — a value well above 1 can indicate receivables growing faster than sales).
- TATA = 0.0161 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; this measures accruals intensity — while small numerically, accruals still contribute to the M-Score shift when combined with other ratios).
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (this earnings-quality component scores receivables issues; a 0 score flags very weak receivables quality in the scoring framework).
- Revenue quality = 35.9/100 (this low score suggests concerns in how revenue translates into cash and margins).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.84 (39th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; this low ratio indicates profits are converting to cash less effectively than most peers).
- Altman Z-Score = 7.24 (a measure of distance to bankruptcy; this value sits well inside the 'safe' zone).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (this fundamental health score is neutral rather than strongly negative; it aggregates profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals).
- Accruals quality = 93.6/100 (this measures the quality of accounting accruals; a high score indicates that accruals-based distortion appears limited by this metric).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 5.4% of total assets (69th percentile; while present, this level is not extreme versus peers — it captures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables).
- Accumulated losses: none; Owner's equity (ex-minority) = positive; Net loss (parent) in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 — these are statutory statement facts showing no accumulated statutory loss or immediate solvency breach.
Shareholding is highly concentrated: Kirin Holdings Singapore Pte. Limited owns 95.7% and Indochina Beverage Assets Limited 0.2%, which indicates near-total institutional/parent control. No director-deal registrations were provided in the input; note that registrations recorded with the exchange would reflect intended trades, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 note for trade receivables and the schedules for 'other receivables' to reconcile the DSRI behavior and the Receivables outside the trade cycle (5.4% of total assets).
- Reconcile the statement of cash flows (operating cash flow line) against profit after tax for the last three years to verify the 3-year cash conversion ratio = 0.84.
- Inspect the related-party disclosures and the prepayments/loans schedules to identify composition of receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Confirm the parent-company profit (loss) line and the retained earnings/accumulated losses line in the consolidated and parent statutory statements to validate 'accumulated losses: none' and 'net loss (parent) in 0 years'.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.33
- P/S
- 0.79
- ROE
- 11.7%
- ROA
- 9.6%
- EPS
- 1.615
- BVPS
- 13.625
- Gross Margin
- 31.7%
- Net Margin
- 7.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 5.02
- Rev Growth
- +1.1%
- Profit Growth
- −18.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.39
- Div Yield
- 11.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 87.1M
- Charter Capital
- 871B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bia và đồ uống
- Sub-industry
- Đồ uống & giải khát
- Company Type
- CT