Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.210
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 47.9%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.6634th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.4%75th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.5595 (90th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.96, signalling that several Beneish components have moved in the direction associated with more aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 19.9/100) with very low cash-conversion and receivables/revenue-quality scores, while solvency and fundamentals are mixed: Altman Z-Score 2.31 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score 2/9 (weak).
- Beneish M-Score -0.5595 (90th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; note the -1.78 US cutoff is not VN-calibrated) — measures an aggregate likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight financial ratios; the high peer percentile and a YoY change of +1.96 indicate the company has shifted toward the signature of more aggressive accounting relative to peers.
- DSRI 1.8803 — the Days' Sales Receivable Index (growth in receivables relative to sales) is elevated, which can indicate revenue recognition or collectability issues.
- LVGI 1.9056 — the leverage/asset growth index is high, signalling rapid growth in liabilities or leverage relative to assets, a component associated with pressure on reported earnings.
- GMI 1.3426 — the Gross Margin Index (>1 means margins deteriorated year-over-year), suggesting margin pressure that can create incentives to manage earnings.
- TATA 0.1280 — Total Accruals to Total Assets is positive, indicating accruals contributed to earnings (accruals-based earnings), which reduces cash quality of reported profit.
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores extremely low: Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 and Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these quantify that operating profit is not converting into cash, receivables show poor quality, and revenue exhibits low quality signals.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.66 (34th percentile among VN non-financials) — profits are not being converted to cash at a strong rate compared with peers.
- AQI 0.6515 — the Asset Quality Index below 1 suggests no large shift toward long-lived asset reclassification that would commonly inflate short-term profits; AQI measures changes in the proportion of non-current assets not subject to depreciation.
- DEPI 1.0052 and SGAI 0.5860 — Depreciation Index close to 1 (DEPI ~1.0052) indicates no major change in depreciation policy, and SGAI <1 (0.5860) shows selling/general/admin expenses did not spike relative to sales, both moderating some manipulation vectors.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (ex-minorities) is positive and the parent has 0 years of net loss up to FY2025 — these are accounting facts that signal the company is not in statutory loss territory and has positive retained earnings.
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) — none met in the published statements, i.e. the audited statements do not meet the exchange cancellation criteria referenced.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: Nguyễn Mỹ Dung 16.9%, Trần Hữu Đông 15.4%, and three other individuals holding between 5.0–8.6%. This concentrated, individual-owner structure can be associated with strong controlling influence by insiders; no state or corporate-block shareholder is listed in the top five.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on trade and non-trade receivables to the revenue note: confirm the composition and ageing of receivables and quantify any receivables labelled as 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans receivable' or 'other long-term receivables' that make up the reported 7.4% of total assets.
- Reconcile consolidated operating cash flow and parent net profit for FY2023–FY2025 to reproduce the 3-year cash-conversion ratio (0.66): inspect the cash-flow statement and the reconciliation of profit to cash from operating activities (the accrual adjustments and working-capital movements).
- Inspect the related-party transactions and group schedules in the annual report for balances and terms of any receivable or payable to related parties, given the high DSRI (1.8803) and LVGI (1.9056) which can reflect receivables and related-party financing.
- Review the auditor's report and the accounting-policy notes for depreciation and revenue recognition to confirm there were no disclosed changes in depreciation methods or revenue policies (DEPI ~1.0052 and SGAI 0.5860 suggest no major policy shifts).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.43
- P/S
- 1.11
- ROE
- 8.1%
- ROA
- 5.0%
- EPS
- 660
- BVPS
- 8.531
- Gross Margin
- 12.1%
- Net Margin
- 6.0%
- D/E
- 0.24
- Current Ratio
- 1.71
- Rev Growth
- +78.0%
- Profit Growth
- +38.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.69
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 71.7M
- Charter Capital
- 717B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT