Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 4.562
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −5.755th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 13.7%86th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The Beneish M-Score is 2.1921 (98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.33, signalling unusually aggressive accounting metrics relative to Vietnamese companies and a recent upward trajectory. Earnings-quality components show very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and low revenue quality (13.1/100), while accruals and receivables quality scores are relatively strong (75.2/100 and 100.0/100). The Altman Z-Score of 3.15 places the company in the ‘safe’ bankruptcy-distance zone, but the Piotroski F-Score is low at 3/9, indicating weak operational/financial fundamentals.
- Beneish M-Score 2.1921 (98th percentile among Vietnamese peers): the absolute score exceeds the US -1.78 cutoff and the peer percentile is high; the M-Score components driving this include a very high AQI of 10.0000 and an SGI of 1.7592.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +3.33: the M-Score has moved sharply this year, which is notable even though M-Scores have low year-to-year correlation.
- Earnings-quality — Cash conversion 0.0/100 and 3-year cash conversion ratio -5.75 (5th percentile): operating cash flow has not converted reported profits into cash over three years (operating cash flow / net profit = -5.75).
- Earnings-quality — Revenue quality 13.1/100 and TATA 0.0621: revenue quality is low and total accruals (TATA) are non-trivial, suggesting reliance on noncash items and possible recognition timing effects.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 13.7% of total assets (86th percentile): a sizeable portion of assets are prepayments/loans/long-term receivables rather than trade receivables, which can obscure cash flows and create related-party or working-capital complexity.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9: weak score on fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency signals are limited).
- Receivables quality 100.0/100: the model rates the trade-receivables-related quality measures highly despite the high share of receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Accruals quality 75.2/100 and TATA 0.0621: accruals quality is relatively strong and total accruals are modest in absolute terms (TATA = 0.0621), which reduces some concern that earnings are heavily accrual-driven.
- Altman Z-Score 3.15: places the company in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance under the Altman framework.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: the five largest shareholders are Nguyễn Văn Quân 10.5%, Lê Thị Hằng 9.4%, Nguyễn Hồng Tảo 8.7%, and two others at 4.9% each. Director-deal registrations show 3 purchase registrations (2,400,000 shares total, 3 traders, 2 of the registrations without a volume) and 0 sale registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30; these are declarations of intent filed with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on 'Receivables and prepayments' to quantify the 13.7% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle and identify counterparties and related-party disclosures.
- Reconcile the consolidated statement of cash flows with the income statement to verify the 3-year cash conversion figure (operating cash flow / net profit = -5.75) and inspect major noncash items in the cash-flow reconciliation.
- Review the 'Other receivables / Loans to related parties' schedules and the notes on related-party transactions to see the composition, maturity and terms of non-trade receivables.
- Examine the auditor’s report and the statutory notes regarding accumulated losses and parent-company profit to confirm that undistributed earnings are not negative and that the company reports 0 consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.66
- P/S
- 0.07
- ROE
- 2.5%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- EPS
- 144
- BVPS
- 5.778
- Gross Margin
- 1.4%
- Net Margin
- 0.3%
- D/E
- 2.17
- Current Ratio
- 1.20
- Rev Growth
- +75.9%
- Profit Growth
- +11.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 21.91
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 30.7M
- Charter Capital
- 307B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Kim loại
- Sub-industry
- Thép và sản phẩm thép
- Company Type
- CT