HSL
Công ty Cổ phần Công nghệ Sinh học Helios
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 7.180
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 7.279
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0045th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 28.6%94th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.4494, which is above the US benchmark cutoff but sits at the 91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers and has moved +2.73 year-over-year — indicating accounting metrics have become materially more aggressive relative to local peers. Earnings-quality sub-scores show particular weaknesses in cash conversion, receivables and margins (cash conversion 0/100; receivables quality 0/100; margin quality 0/100) while accruals quality is relatively strong (82.6/100). Other risk signals include a high DSRI (3.7611), elevated LVGI (3.7211) and SGAI (3.0014); the Altman Z-Score of 2.10 places the company in the ‘grey zone’ for bankruptcy distance and the Piotroski F-Score is weak at 3/9.
- High Beneish peer percentile: M-Score -0.4494 at the 91st percentile vs Vietnamese peers (the score rose by +2.73 YoY) — this measures a composite of eight earnings/manipulation-related ratios and shows the firm is more aggressive than most local peers.
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 3.7611 — measures abnormal increases in receivables relative to sales and suggests receivables grew much faster than revenue.
- Leverage-related and inventory indicators: LVGI = 3.7211 and DEPI = 2.0664 — LVGI measures changes in leverage and liquidity patterns; DEPI measures changes in depreciation policies/asset aging. Both are elevated.
- Selling, general & admin expense index (SGAI) = 3.0014 — measures changes in SG&A relative to sales and indicates SG&A rose strongly versus revenue.
- Tangible accruals (TATA) = 0.0436 and AQI (accrual quality index) = 1.1134 combined with low cash conversion (0.0/100) — the company reports profits that are not converting into operating cash flow.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 28.6% of total assets (94th percentile) — a large share of assets are in prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables rather than trade receivables.
- Earnings-quality composite is low at 28.5/100 with revenue quality only 52.2/100 and margin quality 0.0/100 — indicates weak underlying profitability metrics.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — weak fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency signals are limited).
- Accruals quality = 82.6/100 — measures the extent to which reported earnings are supported by cash-based accruals; this is a relatively strong score within the earnings-quality components.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive — the statements do not show retained losses and equity is not negative.
- Statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (as amended) are not met — the company’s audited annual statements did not trigger the listed-company statutory loss condition.
- Director-deal activity is limited to registrations: 2 sale registrations (2,826,900 shares) and 2 purchase registrations (no volumes reported for the purchases) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades.
Shareholdings are relatively dispersed among individuals with the largest holder at 6.2% (Đỗ Hà Anh) and several other individuals between 2.3%–3.9%; there is no single dominant shareholder listed. Director-deal registrations include 2 sale registrations totaling 2,826,900 shares and 2 purchase registrations (no volumes disclosed), which are registered intentions rather than executed transactions.
- Compare the 2025 schedule/note for receivables and prepayments to the balance-sheet total to confirm the 28.6% of assets in non-trade receivables and identify counterparties and related-party labels.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported net profit in the cash-flow statement and the accounting-policy note to verify why the three-year cash conversion metric is 1.00 (45th percentile) and to identify large non-cash adjustments.
- Inspect the notes on related-party transactions, loans receivable and long-term receivables to see the nature, terms and counterparties of amounts outside the trade cycle.
- Review the accounting-policy and fixed-asset schedules for depreciation methods and useful lives to assess drivers of DEPI = 2.0664 and the AQI/TATA reconciliation in the financial-statement notes.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.63
- P/S
- 6.04
- ROE
- 0.0%
- ROA
- 0.0%
- EPS
- 0
- BVPS
- 11.449
- Gross Margin
- 2.9%
- Net Margin
- 0.3%
- D/E
- 0.01
- Current Ratio
- 2.92
- Rev Growth
- −66.8%
- Profit Growth
- −97.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 38.6M
- Charter Capital
- 386B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT