Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.095
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.6534th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 41.8%98th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows a mix of signals: the Beneish M-Score of -1.2767 (84th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +0.99) points to more aggressive accounting than most Vietnamese peers and a material upward move in the score. At the same time, solvency distance is strong (Altman Z-Score 5.79, in the safe zone) and accruals-quality is relatively high (81.2/100), while several cash- and receivables-related metrics are weak (three-year cash conversion 0.65, receivables outside the trade cycle 41.8% of total assets).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.2767 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios). This is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits at the 84th percentile among Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting relative to peers; the M-Score rose by +0.99 year-over-year (an exception trajectory).
- DSRI = 1.3133 (Days Sales Receivable Index; >1 indicates receivables grew faster than sales). This suggests receivables/credit terms or recognition timing have loosened relative to sales.
- AQI = 1.3368 (Asset Quality Index; >1 signals greater capitalisation of non-current or unconventional costs or shifts in asset mix that can inflate profits).
- LVGI = 0.6719 (Leverage Index; <1 indicates leverage decreased). While lower leverage can be benign, a falling leverage index combined with an AQI >1 and rising M-score can indicate reclassification of items off the income statement into assets.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 0.65 (34th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). This is low — reported profits are not being converted to operating cash at the same rate as peers.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 41.8% of total assets (98th percentile). A very large proportion of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables; such balances deserve scrutiny for related-party terms, collectability and classification.
- Earnings-Quality overall = 29.1/100 with Revenue quality = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100. These component zeros flag concerns about the quality and sustainability of reported revenue and receivables recognition as measured by the applied scoring rules.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength; 3 is weak).
- Altman Z-Score = 5.79 (measures distance to bankruptcy using liquidity, profitability and capital structure; this value places the company in the safe zone).
- Accruals quality = 81.2/100 (measures how much reported earnings are explained by accruals; a higher score here indicates accruals are relatively consistent/transparent).
- TATA = 0.0471 (total accruals to total assets; a low positive number suggests total accruals are small relative to assets, i.e., not dominated by large one-off accruals).
- SGI = 0.8899 (Sales Growth Index; <1 means sales decreased year-over-year, which can reduce pressure to inflate sales compared with high-growth peers).
- DEPI = 0.9075 (Depreciation Index; <1 typically indicates depreciation expense increased relative to prior year, which works against earnings inflation).
RCC (Công ty Cổ phần Tổng Công ty Công trình Đường sắt Việt Nam) holds 54.8% (control as of 2026-06-30), indicating majority control by a single listed entity; the remaining shareholders are dispersed (largest individual 3.2%). This is a group-controlled/majority state-linked holding structure under Vietnamese context (control threshold >50%). Director-deal disclosures (registrations) show 1 sale registration and 2 purchase registrations (totaling 1,250,000 shares registered to buy) filed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) that detail 'receivables and prepayments' with the related-party transactions note: identify the split between trade receivables, loans to related parties, and prepayments and report the terms/tenors.
- Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) to profit for FY2023–FY2025: show the components of working-capital changes and any large adjustments to reconcile profit to cash from operations.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note for FY2025: confirm depreciation methods, useful lives and any changes that would explain DEPI = 0.9075.
- Review the auditor’s report and the statutory schedules referenced under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) / Decree 245/2025 to confirm the company does not meet any statutory loss conditions (the published statements show none met).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.63
- P/S
- 1.07
- ROE
- 4.0%
- ROA
- 3.5%
- EPS
- 565
- BVPS
- 14.340
- Gross Margin
- 11.0%
- Net Margin
- 6.7%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 9.98
- Rev Growth
- −11.0%
- Profit Growth
- −47.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 15.82
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.6M
- Charter Capital
- 56.1B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT