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HMR

Công ty Cổ phần Đá Hoàng Mai

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuHNXCT
9.000
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+12.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
9.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
10.095

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→10.04B
Fair EV/EBITDA→5.6x
Years of data→6
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+12.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
10.095
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA10.0 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 6
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·828290817749
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.30.1100.30.30.3
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·635450556023
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·35262729320.00
Net Inventories
·182830261726
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·182830261726
Other current assets
·0.000.000.000.0100
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·9910101012
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·322221
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·322221
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·6767811
Tangible fixed assets
·6767811
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0.800000
Investments in associate companies
·0.800000
Other non-current assets
·00.20.40.60.010.01
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·00.20.40.60.010.01
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·9191100918862
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·101423141523
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·81222141321
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00.59000
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.10.20.20.10.20.09
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·210.80.0833
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·807877787239
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·807877787239
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·565656565638
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1512121270.4
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·9191100918862
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·565656565638

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
29
Poor
Accrual Quality
81
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
59
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.28 · 84th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.99
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.313
GMI
2.100
AQI
1.337
SGI
0.890
DEPI
0.908
SGAI
1.119
TATA
0.047
LVGI
0.672

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.6534th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
41.8%98th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows a mix of signals: the Beneish M-Score of -1.2767 (84th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +0.99) points to more aggressive accounting than most Vietnamese peers and a material upward move in the score. At the same time, solvency distance is strong (Altman Z-Score 5.79, in the safe zone) and accruals-quality is relatively high (81.2/100), while several cash- and receivables-related metrics are weak (three-year cash conversion 0.65, receivables outside the trade cycle 41.8% of total assets).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.2767 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios). This is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits at the 84th percentile among Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting relative to peers; the M-Score rose by +0.99 year-over-year (an exception trajectory).
  • DSRI = 1.3133 (Days Sales Receivable Index; >1 indicates receivables grew faster than sales). This suggests receivables/credit terms or recognition timing have loosened relative to sales.
  • AQI = 1.3368 (Asset Quality Index; >1 signals greater capitalisation of non-current or unconventional costs or shifts in asset mix that can inflate profits).
  • LVGI = 0.6719 (Leverage Index; <1 indicates leverage decreased). While lower leverage can be benign, a falling leverage index combined with an AQI >1 and rising M-score can indicate reclassification of items off the income statement into assets.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 0.65 (34th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). This is low — reported profits are not being converted to operating cash at the same rate as peers.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 41.8% of total assets (98th percentile). A very large proportion of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables; such balances deserve scrutiny for related-party terms, collectability and classification.
  • Earnings-Quality overall = 29.1/100 with Revenue quality = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100. These component zeros flag concerns about the quality and sustainability of reported revenue and receivables recognition as measured by the applied scoring rules.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures nine fundamental signals of financial strength; 3 is weak).
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 5.79 (measures distance to bankruptcy using liquidity, profitability and capital structure; this value places the company in the safe zone).
  • Accruals quality = 81.2/100 (measures how much reported earnings are explained by accruals; a higher score here indicates accruals are relatively consistent/transparent).
  • TATA = 0.0471 (total accruals to total assets; a low positive number suggests total accruals are small relative to assets, i.e., not dominated by large one-off accruals).
  • SGI = 0.8899 (Sales Growth Index; <1 means sales decreased year-over-year, which can reduce pressure to inflate sales compared with high-growth peers).
  • DEPI = 0.9075 (Depreciation Index; <1 typically indicates depreciation expense increased relative to prior year, which works against earnings inflation).
Ownership Risk

RCC (Công ty Cổ phần Tổng Công ty Công trình Đường sắt Việt Nam) holds 54.8% (control as of 2026-06-30), indicating majority control by a single listed entity; the remaining shareholders are dispersed (largest individual 3.2%). This is a group-controlled/majority state-linked holding structure under Vietnamese context (control threshold >50%). Director-deal disclosures (registrations) show 1 sale registration and 2 purchase registrations (totaling 1,250,000 shares registered to buy) filed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — these are registered intentions, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) that detail 'receivables and prepayments' with the related-party transactions note: identify the split between trade receivables, loans to related parties, and prepayments and report the terms/tenors.
  • Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) to profit for FY2023–FY2025: show the components of working-capital changes and any large adjustments to reconcile profit to cash from operations.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note for FY2025: confirm depreciation methods, useful lives and any changes that would explain DEPI = 0.9075.
  • Review the auditor’s report and the statutory schedules referenced under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) / Decree 245/2025 to confirm the company does not meet any statutory loss conditions (the published statements show none met).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
5.79
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.69
Negative
Composite
38
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.77×Interest Burden1.88×Op. Margin0.05×Turnover0.52×Leverage1.13=ROE3.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−30.2%
Volatility
68.3%
Max Drawdown
−35.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
15.93P/E
P/B
0.63
P/S
1.07
ROE
4.0%
ROA
3.5%
EPS
565
BVPS
14.340
Gross Margin
11.0%
Net Margin
6.7%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
9.98
Rev Growth
−11.0%
Profit Growth
−47.5%
EV/EBITDA
15.82
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
5.6M
Charter Capital
56.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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