HLO
Công Ty Cổ Phần Công Nghệ Ha Lô
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 16.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 15.329
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 22 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.0548th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.3%69th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.672, which is above the US -1.78 cutoff but sits at the 76th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and has risen by +1.17 year-over-year, indicating accounting measures trending more aggressive relative to most local peers. Earnings-quality components show mixed signals: very weak cash conversion (5.0/100) and low margin quality (29.6/100), but strong receivables quality (100/100); solvency and fundamentals look strong with an Altman Z-Score of 9.21 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.672 (76th percentile vs Vietnam; YoY change +1.17). The absolute level is close to the -1.78 US threshold, but the high peer percentile and the +1.17 increase suggest the company’s accounting earnings have become more aggressive relative to Vietnamese peers.
- Earnings-quality: Cash conversion score 5.0/100 and three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 1.05 (48th percentile). Cash conversion metrics point to weak conversion of reported profit into operating cashflows.
- Earnings-quality: Margin quality 29.6/100. Low margin-quality indicates the persistence or composition of reported margins may be a concern.
- AQI (Accruals Quality Index) = 1.2574 and TATA (total accruals) = 0.1085. AQI >1 and positive TATA indicate accruals are contributing to reported earnings rather than cash.
- LVGI (sales growth persistence metric) = 0.5144 and SGI (sales growth index) = 1.3104. Sales are growing (SGI >1) but LVGI below 1 suggests the growth may be less persistent, which can amplify earnings-quality concerns if combined with rising M-Score.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ = 5.3% of total assets (68th percentile). Receivables appear well-supported and a relatively modest share of assets are non-trade receivables or long-term receivables.
- DSRI (days sales receivable index) = 0.7489. A DSRI below 1.0 suggests days sales outstanding have shortened rather than stretched, which supports receivables quality.
- GMI (gross margin index) = 0.9408 and DEPI (depreciation index) = 0.9038. GMI <1 implies gross margins have improved year-over-year, and DEPI <1 suggests depreciation policies are not unusually slowing—both temper manipulation concerns tied to margin deterioration or aggressive depreciation deferral.
- Altman Z-Score = 9.21 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score = 7/9. These indicate low bankruptcy risk and generally strong operating/fundamental signals.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Kỷ Minh Du holds 44.7% and the top five shareholders together hold roughly 84.8% (44.7% + 12.5% + 10.0% + 9.9% + 7.7%), which implies major control by a small group of insiders and related parties. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data; registrations (when present) are disclosures of intent rather than executed trades.
- Compare the three-year operating cash flow and net profit lines in the consolidated cash flow statement and the management discussion to reconcile the cash conversion ratio of 1.05 with narrative explanations.
- Inspect the note(s) to receivables and related-party transactions for details supporting the 5.3% of total assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Review the accruals and working-capital schedules and the auditor’s report for commentary on total accruals (TATA = 0.1085) and AQI = 1.2574 to understand what balance-sheet items drive accrual-based earnings.
- Confirm the parent-company profit / loss and accumulated retained earnings lines to verify that there are no accumulated losses and that owner’s equity excluding minority interest is positive, as stated.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.20
- P/S
- 1.35
- ROE
- 13.7%
- ROA
- 11.7%
- EPS
- 2.076
- BVPS
- 16.149
- Gross Margin
- 26.0%
- Net Margin
- 14.5%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 6.27
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.75
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 12.1M
- Charter Capital
- 121B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
- Sub-industry
- Hàng điện & điện tử
- Company Type
- CT