Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 14.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 15.946
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −65.200th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.0%49th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals consistent with aggressive accruals and weak cash conversion: a Beneish M-Score of 0.0231 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.10, very high component DSRI (2.5619) and DEPI (2.7084), and a very poor Earnings-Quality Score of 5.7/100 driven by zeros on accruals, cash conversion, receivables, margin quality and low revenue quality (38.2/100). Operational distress is mixed: an Altman Z-Score of 2.96 places the company in the grey zone for bankruptcy distance, while the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = 0.0231 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); this is at the 93rd percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and rose by +1.10 year-over-year (the trajectory moved notably this year).
- DSRI = 2.5619 (days’ sales receivables index; high values indicate receivables/sales are growing faster than sales and can signal revenue recognition or collection issues).
- DEPI = 2.7084 (depreciation index; values >1 indicate slowing depreciation rates or capitalization changes that can inflate earnings).
- SGAI = 10.0000 (selling, general & administrative index; very large value indicates SGA expenses fell sharply relative to sales or were reclassified/capitalized).
- TATA = 0.8033 (total accruals to total assets; a high positive number indicates earnings are driven by accruals rather than cash).
- Earnings-Quality Score = 5.7/100 with Accruals quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (measures how much reported profit is supported by cash and conservative accruals; these scores indicate very poor conversion of profit into cash and low accruals quality).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -65.20 (0th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; indicates profits have not turned into operating cash over three years).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.0% of total assets (49th percentile among Vietnamese peers; this shows non-trade receivables/prepayments/loans receivable are not unusually large as a share of assets).
- Accumulated losses: none (undistributed earnings are not negative) and Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive (these are balance-sheet level signals of solvency).
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025) — none met (the audited FY2025 statements do not meet the exchange’s statutory loss criteria for cancellation).
- Director-deal registrations over 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 0 sale registrations and 3 purchase registrations totalling 40,000 shares (net registered +0.12% of shares outstanding), which are intentions registered with the exchange rather than executed trades.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Vi Thị Dung holds 60.3% and the next largest holder, Dương Thị Chín, holds 21.0%; four other individuals hold small stakes (4.2%, 4.2%, 3.6%). This concentrated, individually-held control suggests related-party and group transactions and insider decisions can materially affect reported results.
- Compare FY2025 'Receivables and prepayments' schedule to the related-party transactions note to identify any large prepayments or loans to related parties and whether these are included in the 2.0% of total assets.
- Reconcile the components of operating cash flow in the cash flow statement with the income statement to explain the three-year cash conversion ratio of -65.20 (show line items for changes in working capital and non-cash adjustments).
- Locate the fixed-asset and depreciation note to verify the drivers of DEPI = 2.7084 (check for changes in useful lives, revaluations, additions/capitalizations or policy changes).
- Inspect the SGA breakdown and accounting-policy note to explain SGA index = 10.0000 (look for expense reclassification, one-off reversals, or capitalization of selling/administrative costs).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.46
- P/S
- 12.28
- ROE
- 2.6%
- ROA
- 1.9%
- EPS
- 161
- BVPS
- 10.447
- Gross Margin
- 3.0%
- Net Margin
- 12.9%
- D/E
- 0.35
- Current Ratio
- 65.06
- Rev Growth
- −64.0%
- Profit Growth
- +1999.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 34.7M
- Charter Capital
- 347B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT