Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 11.467
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.5632nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.8%47th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals that are unusually aggressive versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 3.8359 (99th percentile among Vietnamese firms) with a year-over-year increase of +6.34, driven by very high DSRI (5.4275) and DEPI (4.1076). Offsetting signals include reasonably strong accruals quality (73.7/100) and no accumulated losses or statutory loss tests met, but earnings quality is weak overall (38.8/100) with very low receivables and margin quality scores (0.0/100 each) and a low three‑year cash conversion ratio (0.56, 32nd percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = 3.8359 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); this is at the 99th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and rose by +6.34 year‑over‑year (the YoY move suggests a recent shift in accounting signals). Note: the -1.78 cutoff is US‑calibrated and is only a secondary reference for Vietnamese firms.
- Days’ sales receivable index (DSRI) = 5.4275 (measures relative growth in receivables vs. sales) — a very large value consistent with receivables or revenue recognition changing faster than sales.
- Gross margin index (GMI) = 4.3205 (measures deterioration in gross margin) — a large number indicating margin deterioration versus the prior year.
- Depreciation index (DEPI) = 4.1076 (measures changes in depreciation policy or estimates) — a value above 1 suggests depreciation expense decreased relative to prior year or useful lives/extensions.
- Leverage/volatility index (LVGI) = 1.7788 (measures changes in leverage and volatility) — an elevated reading signaling increased leverage or balance-sheet volatility.
- SG&A index (SGAI) = 1.5126 (measures growth in selling/general/admin relative to sales) — faster SG&A growth than sales.
- TATA (total accruals / total assets) = 0.0658 (measures accruals intensity) — a positive accruals contribution to profit, though accruals quality score is relatively better.
- Earnings Quality overall = 38.8/100 (composite measure of cash, accruals, receivables and margin quality).
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 31.3/100 (measures suggesting revenue and receivables are weak signals of sustainable cash generation).
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = 0.56 (32nd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — profit is not being converted into cash at an industry‑typical rate.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.14 (in the 'grey zone' for bankruptcy distance) — not an immediate insolvency signal, but less cushion than firms with higher Z-scores.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral to weak fundamentals) — mixed signals on profitability, operational efficiency and leverage/ liquidity.
- Accruals quality = 73.7/100 (measure of how much reported profit is explained by accruals rather than cash; reasonably strong).
- AQI = 0.1705 (Beneish AQI component — relatively low compared with extreme values in the M‑Score components), which by itself is not an outlier in the suite of Beneish inputs.
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minorities) positive — balance-sheet equity is intact and undistributed earnings are not negative.
- Statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) — none met in the audited FY2025 statements (this is a factual result reported by the auditors/statements).
- Director-deal registrations are limited: 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (covering 1 registrant, 1 without a volume) reported between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 — few registered insider intentions to trade were disclosed.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Dịch vụ Tài chính Hoàng Huy (institution) holds 58.3% (control-level concentration). The listed group holds 35.3% of CRV (influence). Other significant holders are the ton poh fund (4.9%), two individuals Nguyễn Phương Đông (4.6%) and Đinh Quang Chiến (4.4%), and a small listed holder NTL at 0.6%. Concentration and group links increase the importance of checking related‑party disclosures and intra‑group flows.
- Compare the 1.8% of total assets reported as 'receivables outside the trade cycle' with the related‑party receivables and prepayments note to see counterparty, maturities and interest terms.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit in the cash flow note (verify components of the three‑year cash conversion ratio = 0.56) and inspect the reconciliation of profit to cash provided by operating activities.
- Inspect the revenue note and sales‑by‑segment schedule for large customers, concentration, sales returns, and the ageing of trade receivables (to validate DSRI = 5.4275).
- Review the fixed‑asset and depreciation policies and the movement schedule (note and table) to understand drivers of DEPI = 4.1076 (changes in useful lives, salvage values, or capitalization policy).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.45
- P/S
- 4.57
- ROE
- 51.6%
- ROA
- 24.6%
- EPS
- 8.225
- BVPS
- 20.826
- Gross Margin
- 2.6%
- Net Margin
- 395.4%
- D/E
- 0.02
- Current Ratio
- 4.62
- Rev Growth
- +56.3%
- Profit Growth
- +879.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 432M
- Charter Capital
- 4,320B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất ô tô
- Company Type
- CT