HEP

Công ty Cổ phần Môi trường và Công trình đô thị Huế

VietnamConsumerHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpTư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhUPCOMCT

10.800

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 10.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 12.611

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

1.000

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.49%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.49%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→14.40B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→10.800

Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

12.611

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)11.49%

Growth rate4.00%growth method: fundamental firm blend

Base cash flow14.4 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	1.0%	2.5%	4.0%	5.5%	7.0%
9.5%	13.478	13.478	13.478	13.692	13.692
10.5%	13.261	13.261	13.261	13.261	13.478
11.5%	13.261	13.261	13.261	13.261	13.261
12.5%	12.611	12.611	12.611	12.611	13.261
13.5%	12.611	12.611	12.611	12.611	12.611

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

HEP among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, HEP marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is HEP. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	94	76	85	109	142	157	124	87	94	99	89
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	11	51	34	49	88	110	92	55	53	59	55
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	80	21	46	55	51	45	30	30	37	35	28
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	4	4	0.8	1	1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.6
Net Inventories	·	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	5	5	4
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	5	5	4
Other current assets	·	0.3	1.0	2	2	1	0.00	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.04	2
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	227	198	522	515	526	532	539	501	540	569	259
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	225	192	505	500	509	525	537	499	539	561	251
Tangible fixed assets	·	224	192	505	500	509	525	537	499	539	561	251
Intagible fixed assets	·	0.8	0	0	0	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.06	0	0	0
Other non-current assets	·	2	5	2	2	4	2	2	2	1	1	0.09
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	2	5	2	2	4	1	2	2	1	1	0.09
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	321	273	606	624	668	690	664	587	635	668	348
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	39	27	35	58	81	91	55	36	53	71	69
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	39	27	35	58	81	91	54	29	39	51	42
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	9	13	11	7	13	14	6	3	7	7	7
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2	7	14	21	28
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	14	21	28
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	282	246	572	565	587	599	609	552	581	597	279
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	90	86	92	93	98	94	89	75	73	77	77
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60
Other Reserves	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	8	13	13
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	14	11	8	6	4	2	1	0.8	0.6	0.4	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	14	13	11	11	10	10	7	5	4	4	4
Budget sources and other funds	·	192	160	480	472	489	505	520	477	509	520	202
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	321	273	606	624	668	690	664	587	635	668	348
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Highest band

M 0.34 · 94th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +3.93

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

3.929

GMI

0.893

AQI

0.378

SGI

0.955

DEPI

1.000

SGAI

1.108

TATA

0.120

LVGI

1.221

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 0.2026th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 1.2%38th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows multiple accounting signals of concern: a Beneish M-Score of 0.3393 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +3.93, driven by a very high DSRI (3.9287) and elevated LVGI (1.2210). Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (24.9/100), with cash-conversion and receivables-quality scoring 0/100; operational distress indicators (Altman Z = 2.91, Piotroski F = 3/9) also point to weaker fundamentals.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score = 0.3393, Vietnam peer percentile = 94th, YoY change = +3.93 — the M-Score is well above most Vietnamese peers and has moved sharply year-over-year. The Beneish components show very high DSRI = 3.9287 (days-sales-receivables index), which measures receivables growth relative to sales and can indicate revenue recognition or collection changes.
Earnings Quality Score = 24.9/100; Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 — profits are not being converted to cash and receivables-related signals are weak.
Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.20 (26th percentile) — over three years reported net profit has not turned into operating cash at a rate typical for Vietnamese peers.
LVGI = 1.2210 (large-value growth index) and SGAI = 1.1083 (selling/general/admin growth) — asset or expense growth relative to sales is elevated, which can accompany aggressive accounting or operational scaling.
Director-deal registrations total net registered volume = -43.44% of shares outstanding (5 sale registrations for 2,606,600 shares between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30) — multiple sale registrations by insiders/related persons were disclosed (registrations, not executed trades).
Altman Z-Score = 2.91 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — these indicate middling to weak bankruptcy distance and weak earnings/financial-score fundamentals.

Positive Signals

GMI = 0.8927 (gross margin index <1) — gross margins improved year-over-year, which is generally a favourable sign for underlying profitability trends.
DEPI = 1.0000 — depreciation index is neutral (no material change in depreciation policy or asset-life assumptions reflected in this index).
No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 — the company’s statements show retained earnings are not negative and the parent did not report a net loss for FY2025.
Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.2% of total assets (38th percentile) — the level of long-term prepayments/loans/other receivables outside normal trade is low relative to peers.

Ownership Risk

Majority ownership is concentrated: the Provincial People’s Committee of Thừa Thiên Huế holds 51.0% (state control), with the second-largest institutional holder at 8.8% and several individuals holding 6.0% and 5.8%. Insider sale registrations were disclosed during the past year (net registered volume -43.44% of shares outstanding); registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange, not proof of executed trades.

To check in the filings

Compare the change in trade receivables and the DSRI computation to the notes to receivables: reconcile the DSRI driver to the receivables ageing and related-party receivables disclosures.
Inspect the cash-flow statement and the note on 'cash and cash equivalents' / 'operating cash flows' to confirm the components used in the three-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit).
Review the notes for 'prepayments', 'loans receivable' and 'other long-term receivables' to verify the 1.2% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle and any related-party exposures.
Read the equity and retained-earnings schedules to confirm there are no accumulated losses, and check the parent-company profit (net loss count = 0) as presented in the statutory financial statements.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.91

Grey Zone

Sharpe

−1.36

Negative

Composite

70 and above

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✗ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.88×Interest Burden0.98×Op. Margin0.06×Turnover0.97×Leverage1.14=ROE5.6%

Price Risk

Momentum

−38.4%

Volatility

47.0%

Max Drawdown

−40.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

4.16P/E

P/B: 0.23
P/S: 0.21
ROE: 6.0%
ROA: 5.3%
EPS: 2.619
BVPS: 46.994
Gross Margin: 17.5%
Net Margin: 5.0%
D/E: 0.00
Current Ratio: 2.39
EV/EBITDA: 1.94
Div Yield: 11.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 6.0M
Charter Capital: 60.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3): Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
Sub-industry: Chất thải & Môi trường
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for HEP. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Thừa Thiên Huế

State

51.0%

3.1M

2025-12-31

Công ty TNHH Thương Mại - Xây Dựng Và Dịch Vụ Môi Trường Thừa Thiên Huế

Inst

8.8%

527,800

2026-10-06

Nguyễn Hồng Sơn

Indiv

6.0%

358,800

2025-12-31

Dương Thị Huệ

Indiv

5.8%

350,000

2026-06-30

Hoàng Trọng Thuận

Indiv

0.6%

37,100

2017-08-31

Trần Hữu Ân

Indiv

0.5%

30,700

2026-06-30

Lê Vĩnh Thắng

Indiv

0.4%

21,600

2026-06-30

Trần Thị Ngọc Liên

Indiv

0.3%

19,500

2025-12-31

Trần Quốc Khánh

Indiv

0.3%

18,300

2026-06-30

Trương Thị Lan Hương

Indiv

0.2%

13,500

2026-06-30

Trần Trung Khánh

Indiv

0.2%

61,100

2023-12-31

Võ Thị Diệu Phương

Indiv

0.2%

10,700

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Dương Thị Huệ5.8%

Member of Management Board

Trần Hữu Ân0.5%

Member of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Lê Vĩnh Thắng0.4%

Deputy General Director/Person in charge of Corporate governace

Trần Quốc Khánh0.3%

Member of Management Board/General Director

Trương Thị Lan Hương0.2%

Head of Supervisors Board

Võ Thị Diệu Phương0.2%

Member of Supervisors Board

Phan Thị Trang

Member of Supervisors Board

Top connections

HWS70.0%

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: 5 by 1 trader; 2,606,600 shares
Purchase registrations: None
Registered net, share of outstanding:: −43.44%

Công ty TNHH Thương Mại - Xây Dựng Và Dịch Vụ Môi Trường Thừa Thiên Huế
Sale · Institution
527,800
2026-10-06
Công ty TNHH Thương Mại - Xây Dựng Và Dịch Vụ Môi Trường Thừa Thiên Huế
Sale · Institution
538,000
2026-08-26
Công ty TNHH Thương Mại - Xây Dựng Và Dịch Vụ Môi Trường Thừa Thiên Huế
Sale · Institution
591,600
2026-07-17
Công ty TNHH Thương Mại - Xây Dựng Và Dịch Vụ Môi Trường Thừa Thiên Huế
Sale · Institution
619,500
2026-06-09
Công ty TNHH Thương Mại - Xây Dựng Và Dịch Vụ Môi Trường Thừa Thiên Huế
Sale · Institution
329,700
2026-02-12

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

HEP among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

HEP among Consumer