Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.640
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.403
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.9%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1525th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 14.1%86th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals are mixed but point to several areas of concern. The Beneish M-Score is -1.0159 (88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.78, driven by a high DSRI (1.8408), elevated AQI (1.7862) and SGAI (1.5576); at the same time total accruals are low (TATA 0.0989). Earnings-quality metrics are poor overall (20.5/100), with especially weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables/revenue quality (0.0/100). The Altman Z-Score is 2.46 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9.
- Beneish M-Score -1.0159 (88th percentile vs VN peers): measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peers; the company sits well above most Vietnamese peers and the M-Score rose by +1.78 year-over-year (the direction of accounting change matters in VN context).
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.8408: measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a DSRI well above 1.0 indicates receivables are growing faster than revenue.
- Asset Quality Index (AQI) = 1.7862: measures the rise in non-current and other assets (prepayments, long-term receivables) relative to assets; a high AQI suggests increased capitalisation or classification of costs as assets.
- SG&A Index (SGAI) = 1.5576: measures growth in selling, general & administrative expenses relative to sales; a high SGAI can signal discretionary expense recognition or cost capitalisation pressure.
- Earnings-quality overall 20.5/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100: the three-year operating cash flow / net profit ratio is weak (0.15; 25th percentile), indicating profit is not converting into cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 14.1% of total assets (86th percentile): measures prepayments, loans receivable and other non-trade receivables; the company has a relatively high proportion of such receivables among Vietnamese peers.
- Altman Z-Score 2.46 (grey zone): measures distance to bankruptcy; the score is neither clearly safe nor in immediate distress.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9: measures fundamental strength (profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency); 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals.
- Total accruals (TATA) = 0.0989: measures total accruals scaled to assets; a relatively low TATA suggests reported earnings are not heavily supported by large accruals in the period measured.
- SGI = 0.9091 (sales growth index <1): measures sales growth; a value below 1 indicates sales contracted year-over-year which can reduce incentives to aggressively inflate revenue recognition.
- DEPI = 0.9320: the depreciation index below 1 indicates depreciation expense did not fall relative to prior period (less indication of slower depreciation to boost profit).
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive and parent net loss count = 0 years: the balance sheet shows retained earnings are not negative and the parent did not report recent statutory parent losses.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: Nguyễn Đức Dũng 20.5%, Nguyễn Phương Đông 13.2%, Đinh Quang Chiến 9.7%, Phùng Chí Công 6.3% and Lâm Thị Yến 4.7% (top five = 54.4%). This degree of concentrated individual ownership and presence of large controlling shareholders can be relevant to related-party transactions and disclosures. Director-deal registrations show 1 purchase registration (no sale registrations) between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30; registrations are intentions reported to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 balance sheet line(s) for 'receivables — other', 'long-term receivables' and 'prepayments to suppliers' with the related-party disclosures and the notes that break down these items to verify the 14.1% of total assets figure.
- Reconcile operating cash flows to net profit for 2023–2025 in the cash flow statement and the accruals note to confirm the three-year cash conversion ratio of 0.15 and identify major reconciling items (changes in working capital, non-cash items).
- Inspect the revenue recognition note and accounts receivable ageing schedule to check whether receivables growth (DSRI 1.8408) is tied to trade receivables or to non-trade items (advances, related-party loans).
- Read the auditor's report and the statutory loss test disclosures (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) and the 2025 amendment references) and the equity/retained earnings lines to confirm that none of the statutory loss tests were met in the published audited statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.53
- P/S
- 0.34
- ROE
- 4.1%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- EPS
- 542
- BVPS
- 13.580
- Gross Margin
- 5.5%
- Net Margin
- 2.5%
- D/E
- 0.23
- Current Ratio
- 2.01
- Rev Growth
- −9.1%
- Profit Growth
- −21.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.56
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 46.2M
- Charter Capital
- 462B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Nhựa, cao su & sợi
- Company Type
- CT