Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 35.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 39.821
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 27 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.6133rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.2%63rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows a mix of signals: the Beneish M-Score is -1.5566 (79th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.73, indicating accounting metrics have moved in a more aggressive direction relative to Vietnamese peers. At the same time, the Altman Z-Score is 3.90 (in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance) and there are no accumulated losses or parent-level net losses in the last three years; director registration activity is net positive (13 purchase registrations, 0 sale registrations) equal to a registered +1.46% of shares outstanding.
- Beneish M-Score -1.5566: measures a composite of eight accounting ratios to flag likely earnings manipulation; company sits at the 79th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score increased by +1.73 year-over-year (the direction of change is a secondary signal).
- DSRI 1.3221: the Days' Sales Receivable Index compares receivables growth to sales growth; >1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition timing or collection issues.
- GMI 1.1559: the Gross Margin Index >1 indicates gross margins worsened year-over-year, a condition that Beneish treats as increasing pressure to manage earnings.
- TATA 0.1063: Total Accruals to Total Assets of 0.1063 (10.63%)—a non-trivial accruals share of the balance sheet that feeds into the Earnings Quality score (Accruals quality 58.3/100) and can indicate earnings partly driven by accruals rather than cash.
- Earnings-Quality Cash conversion 0.0/100 and 3-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.61 (33rd percentile): operating cash flow is not converting reported profit well over three years (low percentile among VN peers).
- Receivables quality 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.2% of total assets (63rd percentile): a material share of assets (prepayments, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) sits outside normal trade receivables, and the receivables-quality metric is poor.
- SGI 0.8826 and AQI 0.8703: Sales Growth Index <1 and Asset Quality Index <1 here reflect mix changes in sales and asset composition that contribute to the composite M-Score; changes in asset classification or capitalization policies can influence AQI.
- Altman Z-Score 3.90: measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios; 3.90 is in the safe zone (lower immediate bankruptcy risk by that model).
- No accumulated losses and parent net loss in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025: undistributed earnings are not negative and the parent has not reported statutory net losses in the last reporting horizon.
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interests) positive: the balance sheet shows positive equity attributable to owners.
- Director-deal registrations: 13 purchase registrations and 0 sale registrations disclosed 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30, net registered volume +1.46% of shares outstanding—registrations signal insider intent to buy rather than register sales in the period (registrations are not executed trades).
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9: a neutral score on fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency) rather than clearly poor.
Top shareholders are concentrated among individuals: Lê Hoàng Nam 7.4%, Vũ Thị Thủy 5.2%, Lương Văn Sĩ 4.7%, Trần Thị Phượng 4.0%, and Đào Thị Vững 3.8%. No single dominant state or corporate block reported; director-deal registrations show insiders registered net purchase intentions (13 purchase registrations, 0 sales).
- Compare the line items for 'prepayments to suppliers', 'loans receivable' and 'other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet and the related-party disclosures to the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' 4.2% of total assets figure.
- Reconcile consolidated operating cash flow (cash flow from operating activities) to consolidated net profit for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the 3-year cash conversion ratio of 0.61 and inspect the notes explaining major timing differences or non-cash items.
- Review the notes on revenue recognition and the trade receivables schedule to confirm the composition behind the DSRI = 1.3221 (days-sales receivable growth vs sales growth).
- Check the audited statement of changes in equity and the parent company profit (parent profit / loss) note to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that the parent had 0 consecutive years of net loss up to FY2025.
- Open the exchange disclosures for the director-deal registrations (dates, registrants, volumes) to confirm the 13 purchase registrations, 0 sale registrations, and the reported net registered volume of +1.46% of shares outstanding.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.89
- P/S
- 0.16
- ROE
- 17.0%
- ROA
- 4.0%
- EPS
- 3.116
- BVPS
- 19.381
- Gross Margin
- 10.4%
- Net Margin
- 1.6%
- D/E
- 1.93
- Current Ratio
- 1.05
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.12
- Div Yield
- 0.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 14.9M
- Charter Capital
- 149B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT