Back to Dashboard

GSM

Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Hương Sơn

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtSản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnUPCOMCT
22.900
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
22.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
26.620

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.820
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.50%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→2.000
Payout ratio→82.1%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→22.900
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
26.620
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share2.000dps source: eventspayout ratio: 82.06
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1271321281681467646302524251822
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·691715791032201283723
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0.043472200000000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·5811162861334225181620181517
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.40.75537450.20.30.30.90.912
Net Inventories
·0.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.30.20.20.040.2
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·0.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.30.20.20.040.2
Other current assets
·0.10.120.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.412
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000012
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·622632602511496513541576601636669706725
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·578623374409449485520555584619654701723
Tangible fixed assets
·578623374409449485520555584619654688723
Intagible fixed assets
·0000000.000.020.040.070.070.030.08
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·34000000000000
Investments in associate companies
·34000000000000
Other non-current assets
·87101925114444452
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·87101925114444452
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·749763730679642589586606626660695724746
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·183254234190206206236266288369428465496
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·328871546857443521627080106132
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·1564523955433025199249464964
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0000000507000
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1511671631361381491922317299348359364
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·1511671631361381491922317299348359364
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·566509496489436382350341337291267259250
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·566509496489436382350341337291267259250
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·286286286286286286286286286286286286286
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·15415417495956455160.60000
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·12770361085532939516−19−27−36
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·749763730679642589586606626660695724746
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·286286286286286286286286286286286286286

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
66
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
29
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.41 · 81st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.81
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.353
GMI
0.900
AQI
5.362
SGI
1.470
DEPI
0.743
SGAI
0.690
TATA
−0.124
LVGI
0.733

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.5064th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.1%6th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.4133 (81st percentile vs Vietnamese peers) and has moved up +0.81 year-over-year, signalling a relative shift toward more aggressive accounting metrics among Vietnamese peers though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly decisive. Strengths include clean accruals and cash metrics (Earnings-Quality 65.8/100 with accruals, cash conversion and receivable sub-scores at 100/100) and strong solvency/fundamental scores (Altman Z = 4.52; Piotroski F = 9/9); concerns are a very high Asset Quality Index (AQI = 5.3617) and zero Revenue Quality (0.0/100) together with Beneish components (SGI = 1.47; LVGI = 0.7329) that point to fast growth and changes in asset composition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.4133 (81st percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +0.81). The M-Score aggregates multiple signals of accounting distortion; the company ranks above most Vietnamese peers and its M-Score has materially increased year-over-year.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 5.3617. AQI measures the change in non-current asset components (PPE, intangible, other long-term receivables, etc.) relative to total assets; a high AQI often reflects reclassification or rapid growth in non-current assets that can accompany aggressive accounting.
  • Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 28.9/100. These earnings-quality sub-scores indicate revenue recognition patterns and margins that score poorly versus peers — the revenue-quality component is particularly weak.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.4700. SGI > 1 signals fast sales growth; rapid growth can strain controls and increase pressure to manage earnings.
  • LVGI (Leverage Growth Index) = 0.7329. LVGI > 0 indicates rising leverage (growth in debt relative to assets/equity), which can create balance-sheet pressure.
  • DEPI = 0.7428 (Depreciation Index < 1). DEPI < 1 indicates the reported depreciation rate increased (or asset lives shortened) year-over-year, which changes expense recognition and can mask earlier capitalization policies.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA = -0.1235. The accruals-quality sub-score and negative Total Accruals to Total Assets (TATA) show operating cash generation dominates accruals; that is consistent with cash-based quality of reported earnings.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 1.50 (64th percentile among Vietnamese companies) and Earnings-quality cash conversion sub-score = 100/100. Operating cash flow over reported profit is healthy on a three-year basis (1.50x), indicating profits have translated into cash overall.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (6th percentile). Very low non-trade receivables / prepayments/long-term receivables reduces one common channel for off-statement value transfer.
  • Altman Z-Score = 4.52 (safe zone). This Z-score indicates distance from bankruptcy risk under the Altman model.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 9/9. A maximum Piotroski score reflects strong operating profitability, balance-sheet improvement and performance compared with prior periods.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: four shareholders together control ≥77% (Kim Thành 27.4%, Tổng Công ty Khoáng sản và Thương mại Hà Tĩnh 19.8%, Nguyễn Thị Linh Giang 10.2%, Công ty TNHH Đại Hiệp 10.0%, Trần Thị Kim Thoa 10.0%). Two of the top holders are institutions and there appears to be a tightly held group structure, which raises the importance of checking related-party and intra-group transactions.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 movements in PPE, intangible assets, long-term receivables and other non-current asset line items with the notes on reclassifications and acquisitions to reconcile the high AQI (5.3617).
  • Reconcile revenue and margin line items with the revenue recognition note and sales-by-customer/segment schedules to understand why Revenue Quality = 0.0/100 and Margin Quality = 28.9/100.
  • Verify related-party disclosures (sales, purchases, loans, prepayments) and the schedule of receivables to confirm the very low receivables-outside-trade-cycle (0.1% of assets) and identify any intra-group balances.
  • Compare the statement of cash flows (operating cash flow) to net profit across the last three years to confirm the three-year cash conversion ratio 1.50 and the TATA-derived accrual behavior (TATA = -0.1235).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
9/9
Strong
Z-Score
4.52
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.93
Negative
Composite
69
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.95×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.52×Turnover0.31×Leverage1.32=ROE20.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
−11.7%
Volatility
28.2%
Max Drawdown
−27.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.75P/E
P/B
1.16
P/S
2.85
ROE
21.3%
ROA
15.1%
EPS
4.000
BVPS
19.814
Gross Margin
60.8%
Net Margin
49.6%
D/E
0.29
Current Ratio
4.03
Rev Growth
+47.0%
Profit Growth
+63.9%
EV/EBITDA
4.17
Div Yield
8.7%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
28.6M
Charter Capital
286B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →