GEE
Công ty Cổ phần Điện lực Gelex
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 63.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 60.549
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 46.1%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.4029th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 18.5%89th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.9568 (88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.95, indicating accounting metrics have moved toward more aggressive values relative to peers; the score is above the US -1.78 threshold but that cutoff is US-calibrated. Earnings-quality measures are weak (overall 13.7/100) driven by near-zero cash conversion and receivables quality, while solvency-distance is strong (Altman Z-Score 9.97). The Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 4/9 and statutory loss tests are not met in the published statements.
- High Beneish percentile: M-Score -0.9568 at the 88th Vietnam-peer percentile — this indicates the company's combination of the eight manipulation-related ratios is more aggressive than 88% of Vietnamese peers (the YoY rise of +0.95 shows the metrics shifted materially year-over-year).
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.5694 — DSRI measures growth in receivables relative to sales; a value >1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, consistent with a receivables build.
- Total Accruals to Total Assets (TATA) = 0.2379 — TATA measures accrual-based earnings relative to assets; a positive and sizable TATA indicates earnings contain a material accrual component (low cash earnings).
- Receivables outside trade cycle = 18.5% of total assets (89th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — this captures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; the company is in the top decile for such items versus peers.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 0.40 (29th percentile) — only 40% of reported profit has converted to operating cash over three years, low relative to peers and consistent with the high accruals signal.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 — these extreme low scores reinforce concerns about profit-to-cash conversion and the nature of receivables.
- SGAI = 1.1232 and SGI = 1.2051 — selling, general & administrative expenses and sales growth indicators greater than 1 can signal rising overheads and revenue growth; if SGI>1 while margin quality is only 30.6/100, revenue growth may be accompanied by margin pressure or aggressive recognition.
- Altman Z-Score = 9.97 (safe zone) — this measures distance from bankruptcy using a multi-factor discriminant; a value near 10 places the company well within the non-distress zone on the classic Altman scale.
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (neutral) — this composite of profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operational efficiency shows mixed fundamentals rather than clear deterioration.
- AQI = 0.5709 and DEPI = 0.7434 — the asset quality index (AQI) below 1 and DEPI below 1 suggest some relative improvement in asset composition and depreciation patterns versus prior period benchmarks used in Beneish components.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 — the published statements show no statutory indicators of capital erosion and the company passes the statutory loss tests referenced.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Gelex holds 76.0% (institutional controlling shareholder). The next largest holders are institutional (4.9%, 4.7%, 2.5%) and one small individual at 0.2%. Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 2 sale registrations (10,130,000 shares) and 1 purchase registration (10,000,000 shares) with net registered volume ≈ -0.02% of shares outstanding; these are registered intentions reported to the exchange, not necessarily executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 schedule for 'Receivables and prepayments' (note) to revenue: quantify trade receivables versus 'loans receivable' and 'prepayments to suppliers' and disclose their maturities.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit across FY2023–FY2025: inspect the cash flow statement and the notes to identify major non-cash items driving TATA = 0.2379.
- Examine related‑party balances and the 'other long-term receivables' note for counterparty, terms, and collateral where receivables outside the trade cycle make up 18.5% of assets.
- Review the depreciation and impairment notes supporting DEPI = 0.7434 and AQI = 0.5709 to see changes in useful lives, disposals, reclassifications, or write-downs affecting asset quality.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 5.29
- P/S
- 1.67
- ROE
- 45.2%
- ROA
- 22.3%
- EPS
- 8.900
- BVPS
- 21.930
- Gross Margin
- 16.1%
- Net Margin
- 13.4%
- D/E
- 0.66
- Current Ratio
- 1.80
- Rev Growth
- +20.2%
- Profit Growth
- +104.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.10
- Div Yield
- 4.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 640M
- Charter Capital
- 6,405B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
- Sub-industry
- Thiết bị điện
- Company Type
- CT