Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.919
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 13 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.6715th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.7%29th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
FRM's Beneish M-Score is -1.107 (Vietnam peer percentile 87th), which measures the combined probability of earnings manipulation using eight accounting ratios and shows the company's score is more aggressive than 87% of Vietnamese peers; the M-Score moved +2.15 year-over-year. Earnings-quality diagnostics are weak on cash conversion and receivables (cash conversion 0.0/100; receivables quality 0.0/100) while accruals quality is middling (55.9/100). Credit/distress metrics are stronger: Altman Z-Score is 4.24 (safe zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- High DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 2.3380: this ratio measures growth in receivables relative to sales and a reading above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales.
- M-Score percentile 87th among Vietnamese peers and YoY change +2.15: while the absolute -1.107 is above the US -1.78 benchmark, the high peer percentile and the sizable year-over-year rise indicate accounting metrics are more aggressive relative to peers and trending away from prior years.
- Very poor cash-conversion diagnostics: three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -0.67 (15th percentile among VN non-financials) and Earnings Quality cash conversion 0.0/100, indicating profits have not been converting into operating cash over the lookback window.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.7% of total assets (29th percentile): this measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside normal trade terms; while the absolute percent is small, its low percentile versus peers flags it as relatively higher than many peers.
- SGAI = 1.2347 (Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index >1): measures faster growth in S,G&A relative to sales, which can reflect cost pressure or discretionary expense recognition.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.24 (safe zone): this distance-to-distress metric combines liquidity, profitability and leverage and places FRM well into the non-distress band.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral): this score reflects a mix of improving and weakening fundamentals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency.
- Accruals quality = 55.9/100: suggests accrual-based earnings are neither clearly high-quality nor highly suspect versus the scoring universe.
- DEPI = 1.0000 and LVGI = 0.8325: DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0000 indicates depreciation expense relative to gross PPE is stable year-over-year; LVGI (Leverage Index) <1 signals leverage did not increase materially according to this component.
Top shareholders are concentrated among institutions: Tổng Công ty Nông Nghiệp Sài Gòn 26.2% and Công ty Cổ Phần Nông Nghiệp Tlk 22.7%; the two institutions together hold 48.9%. Two named individuals hold 4.5% and 4.4% respectively. No director-deal registrations were provided in the supplied data (registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the movement in trade receivables in the FY2025 balance-sheet line to the notes on related-party receivables and the schedule of prepayments to suppliers to reconcile the high DSRI = 2.3380.
- Reproduce operating cash flows and net profit from the consolidated cash-flow statement and income statement to confirm the three-year cash-conversion ratio = -0.67 and trace any major non-cash adjustments in the notes.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation note to confirm DEPI = 1.0000 (check gross PPE opening vs closing and depreciation expense lines).
- Review the schedule of loans and advances to/from related parties and the long-term receivables note to validate the 0.7% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.79
- P/S
- 4.94
- ROE
- 7.4%
- ROA
- 6.6%
- EPS
- 904
- BVPS
- 12.634
- Gross Margin
- 35.7%
- Net Margin
- 44.6%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 6.35
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 11.7M
- Charter Capital
- 117B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
- Sub-industry
- Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
- Company Type
- CT