Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 19.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 21.019
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.1410th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 18.7%90th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
ECO’s Beneish M-Score is -1.3624 (82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.46, indicating the company shows more aggressive accounting signals than most domestic peers and that those signals have moved materially this year. Earnings-quality diagnostics show acute weaknesses in cash conversion and receivables (Cash conversion 0.0/100; Receivables quality 0.0/100) while margin quality is relatively strong (82.1/100); solvency distance is healthy (Altman Z-Score 4.30) but operating fundamentals score weakly (Piotroski F-Score 3/9).
- Beneish M-Score -1.3624 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); at the 82nd Vietnam peer percentile this score is higher (more aggressive) than ~82% of Vietnamese non-financial listed firms and rose by +0.46 year-over-year.
- Days Sales / Receivables signal: DSRI = 1.5370 (measures growth in receivables relative to sales), consistent with rising receivables pressure.
- Asset quality deterioration: AQI = 1.9219 (measures change in the proportion of non-current/illiquid assets), indicating material growth in non-trade receivables, prepayments or long-term assets.
- Large proportion of receivables outside the trade cycle: 18.7% of total assets (90th percentile among Vietnamese peers) — a high share of prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables.
- Very poor cash conversion: three‑year operating cash flow / net profit = -2.14 (10th percentile) (measures whether reported profits convert to operating cash), indicating profits are not generating operating cash.
- Earnings-quality composite: 26.5/100 (overall weak), with accruals quality 52.2/100 and TATA = 0.1291 (total accruals / total assets), showing material accruals presence.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9 (measures nine aspects of operational and financial improvement) — a low score implying weak recent operating fundamentals.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.30 (measures distance-to-bankruptcy using working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity and sales; falls in the safe zone), indicating low bankruptcy risk by that model.
- Margin quality = 82.1/100 (measures stability and plausibility of reported margins), suggesting reported profitability margins are relatively consistent with peers or historically.
- DEPI = 0.6554 (depreciation index; measures whether depreciation rates have been slowed to inflate profits) below 1, which typically indicates no across-the-board slowing of depreciation expense.
- SGI = 1.0292 and LVGI = 1.6038: modest sales growth index and leverage growth index — SGI indicates only slight sales growth pressure, while LVGI shows some leverage growth to monitor but not an immediate solvency breach.
Ownership is concentrated: an individual, Nguyễn Văn Bình, holds 20.0% and the next largest holders are individuals with 4.9% and smaller stakes; this indicates significant single‑owner influence but not state control. Director-deal registrations in the year show 0 sale registrations and 5 purchase registrations totaling 2,864,750 shares (net registered volume +9.55% of shares outstanding) — these are registered intentions to trade disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 balance sheet line(s) for "Receivables" and the notes on "Prepayments to suppliers / Loans receivable / Other long-term receivables" to confirm the 18.7% of total assets figure and the composition of those receivables.
- Reconcile FY2023–FY2025 consolidated operating cash flows (cash flow statement) with consolidated net profit to verify the three‑year cash conversion ratio of -2.14 and identify which years and items (working capital changes, non-cash adjustments) drive the divergence.
- Inspect the related-party transactions note and the schedule of receivables/payables to see whether a material portion of receivables or prepayments are with related parties and the contractual terms (maturities, interest, collateral).
- Read the auditor’s report and the management discussion & analysis (MD&A) / directors’ report for any commentary on asset quality, collectability of receivables, and explanations for changes in accruals or non-current asset mixes that underlie AQI = 1.9219 and DSRI = 1.5370.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.52
- P/S
- 1.28
- ROE
- 5.7%
- ROA
- 3.5%
- EPS
- 442
- BVPS
- 7.922
- Gross Margin
- 8.2%
- Net Margin
- 2.8%
- D/E
- 0.74
- Current Ratio
- 2.28
- Rev Growth
- +3.0%
- Profit Growth
- −5.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 24.55
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 30.0M
- Charter Capital
- 300B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Nhựa, cao su & sợi
- Company Type
- CT