Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.750
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 3.497
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.9%48th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.19×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.2286 (84th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.71, indicating its accounting behaviour has become more aggressive relative to most Vietnamese peers though the absolute US-calibrated cutoff (-1.78) is not met. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: very high accruals, cash-conversion and receivables quality (100/100 each) but zero scores on margin and revenue quality; Altman Z-Score is 3.21 (in the ‘safe’ zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9 (strong fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score -1.2286 (measures the composite likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight ratios); company is at the 84th Vietnam peer percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and M-Score increased by +1.71 year-over-year (shows a notable shift in the accounting signal).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 4.9267 (measures the proportion of non-current and potentially low-quality assets such as intangible assets, receivables outside the trade cycle, and other long-term items); this high AQI suggests rising or elevated asset-quality items that can mask operating performance.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.1639 (measures sales growth); elevated SGI can make smoothing or one-off recognition more likely in fast-growing firms and here revenue growth is material.
- Margin and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 each (the earnings-quality composite flags poor persistence or reliability of margins and revenue composition), which contrasts sharply with high scores elsewhere and points to potential earnings volatility or one-off revenue items.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA = -0.0295 (TATA measures total accruals to total assets); a very high accruals-quality score and a small negative TATA indicate accruals are low or of good quality in the most recent year.
- Cash conversion = 100.0/100 and Receivables quality = 100.0/100; these measure the company’s ability to convert sales to cash and the composition/aging of receivables respectively and both scores indicate strong short-term cash-realisation and receivables behaviour.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.21 (measures distance to default/bankruptcy using five balance-sheet and income measures) — this sits in the ‘safe’ zone, suggesting no immediate bankruptcy signal.
- Piotroski F-Score = 8/9 (measures nine signals of improving fundamentals such as profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency) — a high score indicates generally strong fundamental performance.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam holds 65.8% (state-related large institutional shareholder) and one individual, Nguyễn Duy Diễn, holds 20.0%; several smaller institutional holders follow. Such concentration indicates dominant block control and potential for related-party transactions consistent with common group and SOE patterns in Vietnam.
- Compare the FY2025 breakdown of ‘prepayments to suppliers’, ‘loans receivable’ and ‘other long-term receivables’ in the notes to the receivables/outside-trade-cycle reconciliation (receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.9% of total assets).
- Inspect the asset-quality note or schedule that explains movements in intangible assets, other non-current receivables and long-term prepayments to reconcile the AQI = 4.9267.
- Review the revenue-recognition note and segment disclosures for one-off sales or related-party revenue given SGI = 1.1639 and Revenue quality = 0/100.
- Confirm the statutory-loss related lines (accumulated losses = 0.19x paid-in capital; owner's equity excluding minority interest positive; zero statutory loss tests met) in the audited balance sheet and the auditor’s report, including any management commentary on solvency or going-concern.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.30
- P/S
- 0.14
- ROE
- 0.8%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- EPS
- 82
- BVPS
- 9.856
- Gross Margin
- 8.7%
- Net Margin
- 0.4%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 4.41
- Rev Growth
- +16.0%
- Profit Growth
- +114.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 11.43
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 9.9M
- Charter Capital
- 99.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT