Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 1.042
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 50.4%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −18.772nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 35.4%97th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals that are atypical versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -0.3772 (91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.14, driven by a high GMI (2.1924) and elevated AQI (1.7581). Operating cash conversion is very weak (three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -18.77, 2nd percentile), while the Altman Z-Score is 7.54 (well inside the safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is low at 3/9, indicating mixed financial health and weak fundamentals.
- Beneish M-Score -0.3772: measures likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company's score ranks in the 91st percentile vs Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting among VN peers) and rose by +0.14 year-over-year.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 2.1924: measures deterioration in gross margins; a value >1 suggests worsening margins relative to the prior year.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.7581 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.6061: AQI >1 indicates rising share of potentially hard-to-value assets (capitalized costs, intangibles, receivables outside trade cycle); LVGI <1 signals falling leverage but must be read with other indicators.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2136: measures accrual-based earnings; a positive large number indicates significant accruals relative to assets.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -18.77 (2nd percentile): measures ability to convert reported profit into cash; the very low negative figure indicates profits have not produced operating cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 35.4% of total assets (96th percentile): measures non-trade receivables, prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; this is unusually large versus peers and increases off-balance-sheet/related-party inspection needs.
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores: overall 27.4/100 with accruals quality 29.7/100, cash conversion 0.0/100, margin quality 0.0/100 and revenue quality 0.0/100 — these indicate weak cash- and margin-related earnings quality despite perfect receivables quality in that specific metric.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: measures nine fundamental signals; a 3 indicates weak performance across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency checks.
- Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): one sale registration and two purchase registrations recorded — these are exchange registrations of intent, not executed trades, and warrant noting in the context of other signals.
- Altman Z-Score = 7.54: measures distance to bankruptcy using financial ratios; the score is in the safe zone, indicating low bankruptcy risk under the Altman model.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100: within the Earnings Quality components this specific metric scores highly, suggesting reported revenues/receivables in core trade lines are of good quality (while other receivable-like items sit outside the trade cycle).
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive: the balance sheet shows retained earnings are not negative and equity is positive, which are supportive balance-sheet facts.
Ownership is relatively concentrated among individuals: the largest shareholder holds 10.1% (Trần Thị Trinh) and the next four holders hold 5.0%, 4.7%, 4.6% and 4.2%. There is no single majority controller apparent from these top-five stakes. Director-deal registrations include one sale and two purchase registrations (intent filings) during the last year.
- Compare the line items behind 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (prepayments, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) in the FY2025 notes and the schedule of receivables to confirm composition and counterparties.
- Reconcile operating cash flows to reported net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes to understand drivers of the three-year cash conversion ratio (-18.77) and identify any large non-cash accruals or timing differences.
- Inspect the related-party disclosures and the loans/advances schedules to see whether large receivables or prepayments are to group companies, suppliers, or individuals.
- Review the audit report and the notes on revenue recognition, margin components and any accounting policy changes (which would relate to GMI = 2.1924, SGAI = 0.6568 and revenue/margin quality scores at 0) for explanations of margin deterioration and revenue quality.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.07
- P/S
- 0.11
- ROE
- −0.8%
- ROA
- −0.8%
- EPS
- −91
- BVPS
- 10.772
- Gross Margin
- 1.4%
- Net Margin
- −1.2%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 59.25
- Rev Growth
- +19.6%
- Profit Growth
- −318.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 20.47
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 28.0M
- Charter Capital
- 280B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
- Company Type
- CT