Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 1.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.418
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −54.901st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.3%68th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
DTI's accounting signals show elevated manipulation-risk metrics versus Vietnamese peers (Beneish M-Score -1.1566, 86th percentile) together with poor cash-generation and weak fundamentals: three-year cash conversion is -54.90 (1st percentile) and the Altman Z-Score is 1.49 (distress zone). Earnings-quality components point to weak revenue and margin quality (Revenue quality 36.4/100; Margin quality 32.8/100) despite moderate accruals and receivables scores.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.1566 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation); ranked 86th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting than most peers (the -1.78 US cutoff is not decisive in Vietnam).
- Year-over-year M-Score change = -2.26 (the trajectory shows the accounting profile moved materially year-over-year; consecutive-year M-Scores correlate weakly, so this is a secondary but notable cue).
- Graham-style earnings drivers: GMI = 3.4216 (measures worsening gross margin trends), LVGI = 1.4601 (large relative change in leverage), and TATA = 0.0742 (total accruals to total assets — non-negligible accruals).
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = -54.90 (1st percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — profits have not converted to cash over the three-year window.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.49 (falls in the distress zone; this metric gauges bankruptcy distance using working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value of equity, and sales), and Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (weak fundamentals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency checks).
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Revenue quality = 36.4/100 and Margin quality = 32.8/100 (these measure the persistence and cash-supported nature of reported revenues and margins and are low).
- Accruals quality = 70.3/100 (measures how much earnings are driven by accruals versus cash; a relatively stronger score here suggests reported income is not overwhelmingly accrual-driven).
- Receivables quality = 75.0/100 (measures how receivables growth relates to sales growth and collectibility; a reasonably strong score).
- AQI = 0.5491 and DEPI = 0.8326 (AQI measures asset quality changes; DEPI <1 indicates depreciation pattern not skewed toward extending useful lives — not a classic red flag here).
- SGI = 0.9669 (sales growth index below 1 indicates sales are not accelerating abnormally year-over-year).
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; parent reported no consecutive-year net loss up to FY2025 (statutory loss tests for HOSE/HNX cancellation are not triggered on UPCoM where the company trades).
Major shareholders are individuals rather than a single dominant corporate or state owner: top holders are Trần Đăng Quân 8.3%, Phạm Văn Minh 4.7%, Đoàn Thị Quỳnh Trang 4.7%, Tạ Thị Dinh 4.6% and Tạ Ngọc Phúc 2.9% (top five ≈ 25.2%). No controlling state or corporate block is evident from these figures; no director-deal registrations were provided in the supplied data.
- Compare the three-year operating cash flow totals against consolidated net profit in the cash-flow statement and the auditor's note to reconcile why cash conversion = -54.90 (look at the operating cash flow line and explanations in the cash-flow statement).
- Inspect the notes supporting 'receivables, prepayments and other long-term receivables' (disaggregated schedules) to verify the composition that makes up 5.3% of total assets (the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' metric) and identify related-party balances or long-term loans.
- Review the revenue recognition policy note and the sales ledger / trade receivables aging to assess drivers behind low Revenue quality (36.4/100) and low Margin quality (32.8/100); compare year-over-year revenue and gross-margin line items to the auditor's emphasis paragraphs, if any.
- Examine the statement of changes in equity and the retained earnings / accumulated losses line to confirm there are no accumulated losses and to reconcile the positive owner's equity (excluding minority interest) reported for FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.16
- P/S
- 0.04
- ROE
- 0.2%
- ROA
- 0.1%
- EPS
- 16
- BVPS
- 10.078
- Gross Margin
- 0.1%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 2.32
- Current Ratio
- 1.21
- Rev Growth
- −3.3%
- Profit Growth
- +24.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 13.5M
- Charter Capital
- 135B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Du lịch và Giải trí
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Du lịch & Giải trí
- Sub-industry
- Khách sạn
- Company Type
- CT