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DTA

Công ty Cổ phần Đệ Tam

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
3.570
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+30.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
3.570
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
4.650

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.110
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.97%
Ke
11.97%
x
E/(D+E)
63.64%
+
Kd(1-t)
2.47%
x
D/(D+E)
36.36%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→3.570
Calibrated value vs last close→+30.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
4.650
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)12.00%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow4.1 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
10.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
11.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
12.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
13.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
14.0%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·163212187232241113987975554119146··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·528943481916153544··
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·343174920000000··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·57353943595267575749341213··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·132652733413738282427··
Net Inventories
·7715912415178120.70.70.633123··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·7715912415178120.70.70.633123··
Other current assets
·211112121210105220.30.56··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000006··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·46542352251742842236631624323419120876··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·923384837352415131333410··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·1023384837352415131328350··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·18192021221612121213121212··
Tangible fixed assets
·91112131473444344··
Intagible fixed assets
·8888888888888··
Investment in properties
·181700000000000··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·12101312131212121212171864··
Investments in associate companies
·0000000000101010··
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·101010101010101212128854··
Other non-current assets
·110.24330.50.090.40.050.060.20.3··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·110.24330.50.090.40.050.060.20.3··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·628634709749669535464395318289232227223··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·424430506547475351276213162137130126122··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·30732841036626613111713510962798561··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·7562511029656521068843302211··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·510.436220.320.80.4129··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·11710296182209220159785475514160··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·6954604678858523415716135··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·205204203202194184188182156152102102101··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·205204203202194184188182156152102102101··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·181181181181181181172172150150100100100··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1110.90.60.65555553··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·232321201331151−3−3−3−4··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·628634709749669535464395318289232227223··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·181181181181181181172172150150100100100··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
21
Poor
Accrual Quality
84
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.56 · 78th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.63
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.981
GMI
0.992
AQI
1.120
SGI
0.807
DEPI
0.914
SGAI
1.196
TATA
0.039
LVGI
0.993

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−5.145th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
3.6%59th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows accounting and cash-flow stress signals: a Beneish M-Score of -1.5613 (78th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.62, an Altman Z-Score of 0.05 (in the distress zone) and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Earnings-quality diagnostics are poor overall (Earnings Quality 21.1/100) driven by extremely weak cash conversion (3-year cash conversion -5.14; 5th percentile) and row-level revenue/receivables metrics (receivables outside the trade cycle 3.6% of total assets; 59th percentile).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.5613: measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; at the 78th percentile versus Vietnamese peers this is more aggressive than most local peers (note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and ~28% of VN stocks exceed it). Year-over-year change +0.62 indicates the accounting profile has moved materially in the last year.
  • DSRI 1.9814: Days Sales in Receivables Index ~1.98, measuring faster growth in receivables relative to sales (suggests receivables growth outpacing revenue).
  • AQI 1.1199 and SGAI 1.1956: Asset quality index 1.1199 measures growth in non-current assets and other potentially subjective items; SGAI 1.1956 shows selling, general & admin expenses growing faster than sales — both can signal aggressive recognition or cost capitalization choices.
  • TATA 0.0394: Total accruals to total assets of 0.0394 measures accrual amount relative to the balance sheet; while not extreme, accruals are positive and non-zero.
  • Altman Z-Score 0.05: measures distance to bankruptcy; 0.05 is in the distress zone and indicates balance-sheet and earnings weakness on the Z model scale.
  • Piotroski F-Score 3/9: measures simple fundamental health across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency; a score of 3 indicates weak fundamentals.
  • Earnings-Quality sub-scores: Cash conversion 0.0/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100, Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these zeros indicate very poor measured quality in converting profit into cash, the composition of revenue, margins and receivables behaviour as captured by the framework.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality 84.2/100: this sub-score indicates that reported accruals (as measured by the applied accrual-quality metric) appear relatively reliable.
  • LVGI 0.9930 and DEPI 0.9137: Leverage/volatility and depreciation indices are close to 1 (LVGI 0.9930 measures changes in leverage and volatility; DEPI 0.9137 measures changes in depreciation policy), suggesting no dramatic changes in leverage volatility or depreciation policy in the year-on-year indices used by Beneish.
  • SGI 0.8073: Sales Growth Index below 1 (0.8073) indicates sales contracted rather than rapidly expanding, which can reduce some incentives to aggressively inflate revenue (but must be read with the DSRI and other indicators).
  • No statutory loss tests met (Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) as amended): the published audited statements do not meet the exchange-listed criteria that would trigger the specific statutory loss test referenced.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated among individuals: the top five named shareholders hold 10.1%, 5.6%, 5.4%, 4.9% and 4.8% respectively, with the largest single holder (Phạm Thị Kim Xuân) at 10.1%. Director-deal registrations show 0 sale registrations and 2 purchase registrations disclosed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (these are registered intentions, not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 operating cash flow line in the cash-flow statement with parent net profit to verify the 3-year cash conversion ratio (reported -5.14); check the note to cash-flow reconciliation for adjustments.
  • Inspect the note(s) to trade receivables and 'other receivables / long-term receivables / prepayments' to confirm the 3.6% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle and the composition (prepayments, loans to related parties, long-term receivables).
  • Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the related-party transactions note to reconcile the Asset Quality Index drivers (AQI 1.1199) — look for additions, reclassifications or capitalization policies that changed year-on-year.
  • Check the audited parent and consolidated statements for retained earnings / undistributed earnings and the statutory-loss disclosures to confirm accumulated losses are absent and that no statutory loss test (per Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) is triggered.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
0.05
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.51
Negative
Composite
40
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.10×Interest Burden−0.85×Op. Margin−0.02×Turnover0.18×Leverage3.07=ROE0.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
−23.2%
Volatility
45.8%
Max Drawdown
−26.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
353.75P/E
P/B
0.34
P/S
0.61
ROE
0.1%
ROA
0.0%
EPS
10
BVPS
10.485
Gross Margin
17.2%
Net Margin
0.2%
D/E
0.71
Current Ratio
0.53
Rev Growth
−19.9%
Profit Growth
+40.6%
EV/EBITDA
20.32
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
19.5M
Charter Capital
195B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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