Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.570
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 4.650
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −5.145th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.6%59th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows accounting and cash-flow stress signals: a Beneish M-Score of -1.5613 (78th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.62, an Altman Z-Score of 0.05 (in the distress zone) and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Earnings-quality diagnostics are poor overall (Earnings Quality 21.1/100) driven by extremely weak cash conversion (3-year cash conversion -5.14; 5th percentile) and row-level revenue/receivables metrics (receivables outside the trade cycle 3.6% of total assets; 59th percentile).
- Beneish M-Score -1.5613: measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; at the 78th percentile versus Vietnamese peers this is more aggressive than most local peers (note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated and ~28% of VN stocks exceed it). Year-over-year change +0.62 indicates the accounting profile has moved materially in the last year.
- DSRI 1.9814: Days Sales in Receivables Index ~1.98, measuring faster growth in receivables relative to sales (suggests receivables growth outpacing revenue).
- AQI 1.1199 and SGAI 1.1956: Asset quality index 1.1199 measures growth in non-current assets and other potentially subjective items; SGAI 1.1956 shows selling, general & admin expenses growing faster than sales — both can signal aggressive recognition or cost capitalization choices.
- TATA 0.0394: Total accruals to total assets of 0.0394 measures accrual amount relative to the balance sheet; while not extreme, accruals are positive and non-zero.
- Altman Z-Score 0.05: measures distance to bankruptcy; 0.05 is in the distress zone and indicates balance-sheet and earnings weakness on the Z model scale.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9: measures simple fundamental health across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency; a score of 3 indicates weak fundamentals.
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores: Cash conversion 0.0/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100, Revenue quality 0.0/100 — these zeros indicate very poor measured quality in converting profit into cash, the composition of revenue, margins and receivables behaviour as captured by the framework.
- Accruals quality 84.2/100: this sub-score indicates that reported accruals (as measured by the applied accrual-quality metric) appear relatively reliable.
- LVGI 0.9930 and DEPI 0.9137: Leverage/volatility and depreciation indices are close to 1 (LVGI 0.9930 measures changes in leverage and volatility; DEPI 0.9137 measures changes in depreciation policy), suggesting no dramatic changes in leverage volatility or depreciation policy in the year-on-year indices used by Beneish.
- SGI 0.8073: Sales Growth Index below 1 (0.8073) indicates sales contracted rather than rapidly expanding, which can reduce some incentives to aggressively inflate revenue (but must be read with the DSRI and other indicators).
- No statutory loss tests met (Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) as amended): the published audited statements do not meet the exchange-listed criteria that would trigger the specific statutory loss test referenced.
Ownership is concentrated among individuals: the top five named shareholders hold 10.1%, 5.6%, 5.4%, 4.9% and 4.8% respectively, with the largest single holder (Phạm Thị Kim Xuân) at 10.1%. Director-deal registrations show 0 sale registrations and 2 purchase registrations disclosed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (these are registered intentions, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 operating cash flow line in the cash-flow statement with parent net profit to verify the 3-year cash conversion ratio (reported -5.14); check the note to cash-flow reconciliation for adjustments.
- Inspect the note(s) to trade receivables and 'other receivables / long-term receivables / prepayments' to confirm the 3.6% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle and the composition (prepayments, loans to related parties, long-term receivables).
- Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the related-party transactions note to reconcile the Asset Quality Index drivers (AQI 1.1199) — look for additions, reclassifications or capitalization policies that changed year-on-year.
- Check the audited parent and consolidated statements for retained earnings / undistributed earnings and the statutory-loss disclosures to confirm accumulated losses are absent and that no statutory loss test (per Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) is triggered.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.34
- P/S
- 0.61
- ROE
- 0.1%
- ROA
- 0.0%
- EPS
- 10
- BVPS
- 10.485
- Gross Margin
- 17.2%
- Net Margin
- 0.2%
- D/E
- 0.71
- Current Ratio
- 0.53
- Rev Growth
- −19.9%
- Profit Growth
- +40.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 20.32
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 19.5M
- Charter Capital
- 195B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT