Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 13.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 14.542
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.8941st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 8.7%78th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of revenue/receivable aggression: a Beneish M-Score of 0.8594 (95th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +4.27, driven especially by a DSRI of 3.6875 and LVGI of 1.3575. At the same time, solvency and core profitability look resilient: an Altman Z-Score of 4.45 (in the safe zone) and a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9; statutory loss tests that would trigger HOSE/HNX cancellation do not apply because the company trades on UPCoM.
- High Beneish peer percentile: M-Score 0.8594 at the 95th Vietnam peer percentile — the company ranks among the top 5% most aggressive-accounting firms versus Vietnamese peers (the absolute -1.78 US cutoff is less relevant in the VN context).
- Sharp year-on-year M-Score rise: M-Score increased by +4.27 year-over-year, indicating a notable recent shift in the combined manipulative/earnings-quality indicators (consecutive-year M-Scores have low auto-correlation, so the trajectory is a separate warning cue).
- Large DSRI (days’ sales receivables index): DSRI = 3.6875, indicating receivables (or revenue timing) have grown much faster than sales — consistent with the receivables and revenue-quality failures below.
- Very weak receivables and revenue-quality measures: Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100, signalling the model finds patterns (size, growth or composition) in receivables and reported revenue that erode confidence in reported sales and collectibility.
- Low cash conversion and cash-based earnings quality: Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, three-year) = 0.89 and Earnings Quality score = 33.3/100, with Cash conversion component = 22.7/100 — profits are not being converted into cash at a strong rate.
- Elevated off-cycle receivables/prepayments: ‘Receivables outside the trade cycle’ = 8.7% of total assets (78th percentile among VN non-financials), suggesting material prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables relative to peers.
- Margin stability: Margin quality = 100.0/100, indicating reported margins are consistent with the model’s expectations and not the main source of concern.
- Accruals not extreme: Accruals quality = 54.9/100 — neither a very strong accruals-quality signal nor an extreme accruals warning.
- Profitability/solvency buffers: Altman Z-Score = 4.45 (classified in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance) and Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (a neutral-to-favourable fundamentals score).
- No accumulated losses and positive equity: accumulated losses = none; owner’s equity (without minority interest) is positive, and the parent reported 0 years of net loss through FY2025 — these are governance/balance-sheet positives.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Đắk Lắk (an institutional shareholder) holds 45.0% of shares; the next largest institutional holder is 0.7% and individual holdings are each around 0.1–0.2%. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set (registrations are separate disclosures and would be listed on the exchange).
- Compare the increase in trade and non-trade receivables: reconcile the DSRI (3.6875) with the receivables schedule and the related-party receivables / prepayments note in the FY2025 audited financial statements.
- Inspect the revenue recognition notes and contract schedules: verify timing of revenue and any changes in accounting policies that could explain SGI = 1.4527 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100.
- Reconcile cash flow to profit: compare the three-year operating cash flow to net profit trend in the cash-flow statement and the cash-flow-footnote to understand the Cash conversion ratio = 0.89 and the low Cash conversion component (22.7/100).
- Examine the composition of ‘receivables outside the trade cycle’ line: check the balance-sheet note that disaggregates prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long-term receivables so you can verify the 8.7% of total assets figure and any related-party counterparties.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.46
- P/S
- 1.50
- ROE
- 24.5%
- ROA
- 18.7%
- EPS
- 2.150
- BVPS
- 9.578
- Gross Margin
- 38.3%
- Net Margin
- 23.1%
- D/E
- 0.15
- Current Ratio
- 1.82
- Rev Growth
- +45.3%
- Profit Growth
- +45.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.13
- Div Yield
- 3.6%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 73.2M
- Charter Capital
- 732B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Nhựa, cao su & sợi
- Company Type
- CT