Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 1.870
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.435
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 50.2%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 6.3293rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 46.7%98th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.70×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
DLG's forensic signals are mixed. The Beneish M-Score is -1.6956 (75th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.19, driven by a high DSRI (1.6638) and AQI (1.4977); at the same time the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9 indicating several healthy operating fundamentals, while the Altman Z-Score is -0.07 (in the distress zone). Several Vietnamese-specific checks show weak cash conversion (6.32, 93rd percentile) and very large receivables/out-of-cycle items (46.7% of assets, 98th percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.6956 (measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation; this is above the US -1.78 cutoff but the Vietnam peer percentile 75th and the YoY change +0.19 are the more relevant cues in the Vietnamese context).
- DSRI = 1.6638 (Days' Sales Receivables Index; elevated DSRI suggests receivables or revenue recognition are growing faster than sales).
- AQI = 1.4977 (Asset Quality Index; higher AQI indicates a rising proportion of intangible, non-current or other non-trade assets which can signal capitalisation or classification changes).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 46.7% of total assets (measures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; 98th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 6.32 (measures how profit converts to cash; 93rd percentile, i.e., profit is not turning into cash).
- Earnings-quality subcomponents: Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 (these scores indicate weak quality in receivables realization and margins).
- Altman Z-Score = -0.07 (measures financial distress / distance to bankruptcy; this level is in the distress zone).
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 (measures nine fundamentals of profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency; a 7 indicates several healthy fundamental signals).
- TATA (Total Accruals) = 0.0742 and Accruals quality = 70.3/100 (measures accruals-based earnings; these figures indicate accruals are present but not extreme and accrual quality is moderate).
- SGI = 0.6604 and GMI = 0.6541 (Sales Growth Index and Gross Margin Index; these show sales growth and gross margin trends are not accelerating in a way that would typically indicate aggressive expansion).
- LVGI = 0.9232 and DEPI = 0.7064 (Leverage/Volatility and Depreciation Index; not showing extreme asset write-up or sudden drop in depreciation that would be a clear manipulation cue).
Ownership is concentrated: an individual, Bùi Pháp, holds 24.8% and three other named individuals/institutions hold smaller stakes (Nguyễn Đăng Quang 3.9%, Đức Long Gia Lai investment company 2.1%). No director-deal registrations were supplied; registrations (if present) are declarations of intent to transact, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 schedule of 'Receivables and other long-term receivables' (note or schedule) to the related-party disclosures and the reconciliation of trade vs non‑trade receivables.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes to identify major adjustments that produce the 3‑year cash conversion ratio of 6.32.
- Inspect the 'Prepayments to suppliers' and 'Loans and advances to related parties' notes to quantify the 46.7% of assets classified as receivables/out-of-cycle items.
- Verify the accumulated losses line and paid-in capital in the equity note to confirm the reported 0.70x accumulated losses / paid-in capital, and confirm which statutory loss tests are reported as not met in the auditor's report or management discussion.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.59
- P/S
- 0.81
- ROE
- 47.0%
- ROA
- 8.5%
- EPS
- 1.218
- BVPS
- 3.201
- Gross Margin
- 45.7%
- Net Margin
- 59.7%
- D/E
- 1.87
- Current Ratio
- 0.92
- Rev Growth
- −34.0%
- Profit Growth
- +75.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.37
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 299M
- Charter Capital
- 2,993B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT